Outlook on US Stocks | Three major stock index futures rise together, JP Morgan CEO: 50% chance of a soft landing for the US economy

1. Before the opening of the US stock market on Tuesday, the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose together. As of press time, Dow Jones futures rose by 0.05%, S&P 500 futures rose by 0.11%, and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.21%. 2. As of press time, the German DAX index rose by 0.45%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.03%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.02%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.25%. 3. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell by 0.26% to $77.38 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 0.29% to $81.43 per barrel. Market News JP Morgan CEO: Commercial real estate crisis will not break out, 50% chance of a soft landing for the US economy. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently stated in an interview that if there is an economic recession, the problems in commercial real estate will only worsen, but many owners are able to handle the current pressures. Dimon pointed out that not all sub-sectors of commercial real estate are at risk, such as warehouses and data centers. Regarding the increasing defaults, Dimon believes this is a normal process. Legendary investor warns: FOMO frenzy may peak, US stock returns could be dismal in the next 12 years. Legendary investor John Hussman believes that with the FOMO-driven rally in US stocks, the stock market may be nearing a peak, leading to dismal returns in the next decade. Hussman warns that despite the recent surge in US stocks, the S&P 500 has reached a new all-time high. He attributes this to the Wall Street's "almost crazy 'Fear of Missing Out'", which could cause trouble for the stock market in the long run. Aftereffects of US rate hikes appear, economic prosperity cannot withstand pessimism from US consumers. Despite strong economic data in the US in recent weeks, consumer confidence has remained relatively pessimistic. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for February was 79.6, slightly below the economist's median expectation of 80. This has puzzled many economists, and some suggest that rising borrowing costs may be the key to this mystery. Yellen: Global economy still resilient, with the US as a key driver of growth. US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that strong US economic growth is a key driver for better-than-expected global economic growth. Yellen emphasized that the global economy remains resilient, despite some challenges faced by certain countries. Kansas Fed President: Fed does not need to preemptively cut interest rates. Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid hinted in his first policy speech that he remains concerned about high inflation and is in no rush to cut interest rates. He believes it is better to wait and observe the economy's reaction to previous policy adjustments before taking further action against inflation. Crypto News Record trading volume for new ETFs, Bitcoin breaks $57,000. Bitcoin's price reached nearly $55,000 on Monday and surpassed $55,000 on Tuesday, reaching over $57,000. Nine new spot Bitcoin ETFs set a new record for total daily trading volume, reaching $2.4 billion. Asset management companies like Ark Invest, Bitwise, BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, ProShares, and 21Shares have seen continuous inflows into their crypto investment products for the fourth week in a row, adding $598 million globally last week.CYD.US H2 revenue increased by 18.9% year-on-year, and engine sales increased by 5.2% year-on-year. Yuchai International H2 revenue was 8.9 billion yuan, compared to 7.5 billion yuan in the same period last year, an increase of 18.9%; net profit attributable to company shareholders was 1.071 billion yuan, compared to 1.249 billion yuan in the same period last year; basic and diluted earnings per share were 2.62 yuan, compared to 3.06 yuan in the same period last year. The total sales volume of H2 engines was 147,700 units, an increase of 5.2% from the same period last year.Macy's (M.US) adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2023 were $2.45, surpassing expectations of $1.99. Net profit was $685 million, exceeding the expected $553 million. Revenue was $81.2 billion, slightly higher than the expected $81.1 billion. Looking ahead, Macy's expects revenue for the fiscal year 2024 to be between $22 billion and $22.9 billion. Lowe's (LOW.US) reported adjusted earnings per share above market expectations. Net profit for the fourth quarter was $1 billion, or $1.77 per share, compared to $957 million, or $1.58 per share, in the same period last year. Adjusted earnings per share for Lowe's were $2.28, compared to analysts' model of $1.68. Revenue decreased from $22.4 billion to $18.6 billion. The company expects revenue for 2024 to be between $84 billion and $85 billion, lower than the estimated $85.61 billion, with earnings per share between $12 and $12.30, compared to the expected $12.95. Zoom (ZM.US) exceeded expectations in its Q4 performance, with a low customer churn rate. Zoom's fourth quarter revenue was $1.15 billion, a 2.6% increase year-over-year, surpassing market expectations of $1.13 billion; earnings per share excluding certain items were $1.42, higher than the expected $1.15. The company also announced a $1.5 billion stock repurchase plan, following the expiration of the $1 billion authorization initiated in 2022. Zoom reported that the number of contact center licenses doubled from the previous year, with 95 phone customers having over 10,000 active users. Approximately 500,000 accounts have activated Zoom's AI free companion. Enterprise revenue grew 4.9% to $6.673 billion. As of the end of the quarter, the company had 220,400 enterprise customers, with 3,810 customers contributing over $100,000 in revenue in the past 12 months. Agora (API.US) parent company reported revenue of $36.04 million in Q4 2023, achieving profitability for the first time in three years. Agora, Inc. announced its fourth quarter and full-year financial results. In Q4, Agora, Inc. achieved revenue of $36.04 million, up 3% quarter-over-quarter, with total revenue for the year at $142 million. The adjusted net profit for the fourth quarter was $1.4 million, marking the first profitable quarter in three years. Gaotu (GOTU.US) exceeded expectations in Q4 revenue, with operating net cash flow of $492 million. Gaotu reported revenue of $761 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, a 20.9% year-over-year increase; cash revenue was $1.278 billion, up 28.1% year-over-year; operating net cash flow reached $492 million. In the 2023 fiscal year, cash revenue for Gaotu reached $3.339 billion, a significant year-over-year increase of 31.7%; annual operating net cash flow saw a significant improvement from the previous year, about 5.5 times higher, providing evidence of the company's continued operational efficiency improvement. Gaotu achieved profitability for the year, with Non-GAAP net profit of $51.06 million. As of December 31, 2023, the company had over $4 billion in cash reserves, providing sufficient security for business development, while continuing stock repurchases, with approximately 4.87 million American Depositary Shares repurchased as of December 31, 2023.