GMT EIGHT - OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Guolian Minsheng Securities: Acceleration of equal rights for autonomous driving in 2025. In 2026, the resonance of autonomous driving, Siasun Robot & Automation, and globalization.

Intelligent electric reshaping order, globalization layout opens up long-term space for components, optimistic about the independent & new energy industry chain + intelligent and robotic increment.

The three decouplings in the financial market and the rise of global populism.

The global financial market is facing three historic "decoupling" trends, while the level of global populism policies has reached a historical high, both driving structural changes in investment logic.

AI computing power and storage demand are expanding wildly! Semiconductor equipment is ushering in a super cycle, kicking off a new bull market.

In the global wave of AI computing infrastructure construction and the macro background of the "storage chip super cycle", semiconductor equipment manufacturers will be the biggest beneficiaries of the rapid expansion trend of AI chips (including AI GPU/AI ASIC) and DRAM/NAND storage chip production capacity.

Cui Dongshu: By 2025, the export of complete vehicles by car companies will increase significantly! The export of domestically-produced cars will increase by 21% year-on-year.

In 2025, the core feature of China's automobile exports is "same rise in quantity and price, optimized structure". The total export of domestically-made cars by car manufacturers reached 7.1 million vehicles for the whole year, a year-on-year increase of 21%.

HK Bull/Bear Outstanding Qty Ratio(67:33) | January 17th

As of January 17, the latest bull-bear street ratio of the Hang Seng Index is 67:33.

Overnight US stocks | The three major stock indices recorded declines this week, and spot gold fell below the 4600 US dollar mark.

As of the close, the Dow Jones fell 83.11 points, a decrease of 0.17%, to close at 49359.33 points; the Nasdaq fell 14.63 points, a decrease of 0.06%, to close at 23515.39 points; the S&P 500 index fell 4.46 points, a decrease of 0.06%, to close at 6940.01 points.

Trump postpones new tariffs on imports of key minerals, and the silver market sees profit-taking and price pullback.

The report from the Indian precious metals company Augmont Bullion points out that the fall in silver from record highs is mainly due to Trump's decision to temporarily postpone new tariffs on key mineral imports and instead stating that the US will ensure supply chain security through negotiation, only considering import restrictions if negotiations fail. The report also predicts a possible brief profit-taking and price pullback in the market, followed by a potential uptrend in prices. Investors are also watching for the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve. Against the backdrop of global uncertainty, US November producer prices and December consumer prices were lower than expected, enhancing market expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, further boosting demand for precious metals.

Establishment of the Commercial Community Service Robot Working Group of the National Robot Standards Committee.

On January 16th, it was learned from the China Light Industry Federation that the National Robot Standardization Technical Committee's Commercial Community Service Robot Working Group was officially established, marking a new stage of coordinated efforts and regulated development in China's standardization work in the field of commercial community service robots.

According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange document: Shandong Huawutang Cosmetics Co., Ltd. submitted an application for listing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Apple's first foldable screen phone iPhone Fold will debut with the A20Pro chip, manufactured based on 2nm technology.

Analysts say that Apple's first foldable screen phone, the iPhone Fold, will be released in September this year, along with the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, all featuring the new A20 Pro chip. The A20 Pro chip will be manufactured using TSMC's new 2nm process, with a 15% performance improvement and 30% energy efficiency improvement compared to the A19 chip. It will also incorporate WMCM technology, allowing for the integration of memory with the CPU, GPU, and NPU on a single wafer, eliminating the need for a separate memory chip next to the main chip as in previous designs.

Big Food International Holdings Limited has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with China International Capital Corporation acting as the exclusive sponsor.

The Bank of Japan announced that it will start selling its ETF holdings next week to ensure a smooth transition in the market with a "century pace".

The Bank of Japan announced on Friday that it will start gradually selling its holdings of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and Real Estate Investment Trusts (J-REITs) from next week.

CSRC releases a notice on soliciting public opinions on the "Regulations on Supervision and Administration of Derivatives Trading".

According to documents from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Xiamen Raycloud United Innovation Technology Co., Ltd. has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The People's Bank of China's open market operations will have 951.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase agreements maturing next week.

Wind data shows that next week, the central bank's open market will have 951.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase agreements maturing, of which 861 billion yuan, 358.6 billion yuan, 240.8 billion yuan, 179.3 billion yuan, and 867 billion yuan will mature from Monday to Friday next week. In addition, there will be 150 billion yuan of national treasury cash deposits maturing on Friday next week. This week, the central bank's open market conducted 951.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, as there were 138.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase agreements maturing this week, resulting in a net injection of 812.8 billion yuan this week.

Two departments: Continue to implement tax incentives for public rental housing.

On January 16th, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the continuation of the implementation of tax preferential policies for public rental housing.

Vanke bond continues to rise

Vanke's bond prices continue to rise. According to traders, Vanke's US dollar bonds rose more than 5 cents on Thursday and achieved the largest single-day increase in over 11 months, and rose a further 4 cents on Friday morning. Currently, the trading prices of these two bonds are still at a deeply distressed level, around 25 cents.

Closing Review: Shanghai Composite Index falls 0.26%, barely holding above 4100 points. Semiconductor industry chain explodes.

On January 16th, the market rose again in the afternoon and then fell back, with the three major indexes collectively closing lower. In terms of sectors, the semiconductor industry chain continued to strengthen, with stocks such as Huicong Technology, Boqi International, and Jiangbolong all rising by over 10%; the CPO sector was active, with stocks like Sanan Optoelectronics, Changdian Technology, and Tongfu Microelectronics all hitting the limit up; the humanoid robot sector was active, with stocks like Wuzhou Xinchun and Ningbo Huaxiang all hitting the limit up; on the downside, the AI application sector saw a collective decline, with stocks like Kunlun Wanwei and Bluefocus Communication falling by over 10%, and many stocks like Xinhua Du and Oriental Pearl hitting the limit down; the tourism and hotel sector experienced a pullback, with China CYTS Tours Holding leading the decline. Overall, there were more declining stocks than rising stocks in both markets, with over 2900 stocks falling. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 4101.91 points, down 0.26%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 14281.08 points, down 0.18%; and the ChiNext Index was at 3361.02 points, down 0.20%. In terms of market performance, semiconductors, storage chips, and advanced packaging led the gains, while short video and Sora concepts, as well as cultural media sectors, led the declines.

The hottest credit market since 2019 is surging with hidden currents! The frenzy of AI giants issuing bonds may cause a stock and bond market downturn.

The global credit market is currently at its hottest in twenty years, prompting fund management companies including Aberdeen Investments and Pimco to issue warnings not to take it lightly.

The Shipping Index Europe Line Futures continuous main contract fell 9% during the day, now trading at 1115.00 points.

Chen Maobo: Will not reduce the stock stamp duty. The main increase in stamp duty this fiscal year comes from stocks.

Chen Maobo reiterated that there will be no further reduction in stock stamp duty unless the external environment makes Hong Kong less competitive. According to earlier research, the current level of stamp duty is deemed appropriate in terms of trading volume and competitiveness.

Hainan: By 2030, sustainable urban renewal modes and policies and regulations will be basically formed.

Notice from 11 departments including the Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of Hainan Province on the issuance of the "Action Plan for Promoting Urban Renewal in Hainan Province". It mentioned that by the end of 2027, initial results will be achieved in urban renewal actions, and the urban renewal system and mechanism will be established. The goal is to create model areas for urban renewal in 20 key areas, more than 5 vibrant neighborhoods, and support cities and counties to integrate resources and projects based on key renewal areas. By 2030, significant progress will be made in the implementation of urban renewal actions, and the urban renewal work mechanism, supporting policies, technical methods, and management systems will be further improved. A sustainable urban renewal model and policies and regulations will be basically formed, and urban historical and cultural heritage will be effectively protected to create a model for Hainan cities with regional characteristics, historical heritage, and contemporary style.

High energy ahead! AI ignites the storage chip super cycle. This fund manager, who outperformed 97% of his peers, bets on "storage" as the best theme.

Emerging market equity funds outperformed 97% of their peers, this fund manager said, pointing to storage chips as the best investment choice. The fund manager is heavily invested in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, both of which have seen significant stock price increases, with the manager predicting further rises in the future.

Wang Wentao: Will focus on key and potential areas such as transportation, household services, performances, and sports events, actively cultivate new growth points for service consumption.

Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao recently said in an interview that this year, China will focus on key and potential areas such as transportation, household services, performances, and sports events, actively cultivating new growth points in service consumption. This year, China will also focus on new tracks and offline entities, optimizing the implementation of the policy to exchange old goods for new ones. It will promote the improvement of support policies, eliminate unreasonable restrictive measures, and actively cultivate new growth points in service consumption. The policy of exchanging old goods for new goods in 2026 will offer greater support for the consumption of green and smart products, with a requirement for household appliances to meet the first-class energy efficiency or water efficiency standards, and subsidies will be included for smart watches, smart bracelets, smart glasses, etc. We will also actively support offline retail entities, encourage offline stores to leverage their comparative advantages, create diversified consumption scenes, enhance consumer experience, and promote balanced development of online and offline channels.

Goldman Sachs returns to the top of Wall Street's stock capital market! "Predictive market" may become the next revenue-generating tool.

Goldman Sachs returned to the top of the Wall Street stock capital market revenue rankings in the last quarter of last year. The financial giant, headquartered in New York, reported that its stock underwriting revenue in the last three months of 2025 was approximately $521 million, surpassing Morgan Stanley's $494 million and JPMorgan Chase's $416 million.

The financing balance of the two cities increased by 20.759 billion yuan.

As of January 15th, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 1348.08 billion yuan, an increase of 91.78 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was reported at 1343.93 billion yuan, an increase of 115.81 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the total financing balance of the two exchanges was 26921.01 billion yuan, an increase of 207.59 billion yuan from the previous trading day.

The White House disclosure shows that Trump holds multiple corporate bonds affected by his policies.

A latest financial disclosure released by the White House on Thursday showed that as of December, Trump's investments in municipal bonds and corporate bonds included some corporate bonds that were partially influenced by his government policies, totaling at least $51 million. The bonds purchased by Trump include bonds from companies such as Netflix, CoreWeave, General Motors, Boeing, Occidental Petroleum, as well as municipal bonds issued by various cities and local school districts, utility agencies, and hospitals in the United States. According to regulations, officials only need to report trading activities in ranges, so the specific amounts or transaction prices are unknown. Trump reported that he made a total of 189 purchase transactions and two sell transactions between November 14 and December 29 last year, with the latter totaling at least $1.3 million. The US government had previously stated that Trump has always reported his investments in accordance with regulations, but neither he nor his family members are involved in the specific management of the investment portfolio, which is managed by a third-party financial institution.

International oil prices fell significantly on the 15th.

As of the close of trading that day, the price of light crude oil futures for delivery in February on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $2.83 to $59.19 per barrel, a decrease of 4.56%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for delivery in March on the London Exchange fell by $2.76 to $63.76 per barrel, a decrease of 4.15%.

US stock market's three major indexes closed higher

On Wednesday, the three major US stock indexes closed mostly higher, with the Dow rising 0.61%, the Nasdaq rising 0.21%, and the S&P rising 0.27%. NVIDIA rose over 2%, Google fell over 1%, Apple and Microsoft both fell slightly, Amazon edged up slightly, TSMC rose over 4%, Broadcom and Meta rose nearly 1%, Tesla fell slightly, and Eli Lilly fell over 4%.

Investment Company Institute: U.S. money market assets decreased to $7.73 trillion.

The first Sea-Launched Long March 7 carrier rocket carrying the Gengshen-1 satellite was successfully launched.

On January 16, 2026 at 04:10 Beijing Time, China's Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center successfully launched the Guanshen-1 Sea Launch Type Remote Seven Carrier Rocket in the waters near Shandong. The rocket carried and successfully placed the Tianqi Constellation 06 satellites into their designated orbit. The flight test mission was completed successfully. This mission was the 23rd flight of the Guanshen-1 Carrier Rocket.

OpenAI seeks American suppliers to drive the robot and AI device program.

OpenAI is seeking to strengthen its hardware supply chain in the United States and is looking for partners to enter the consumer devices, robotics, and cloud data center sectors. This is part of the company's plans for major product expansion in the coming years. The developer of ChatGPT has issued requests for proposals to companies producing in the United States, soliciting components including silicon chips, motors, packaging materials, and data center cooling equipment. These requests do not specify the exact amount or timeline that OpenAI intends to invest. Chris LeHane, Chief Global Affairs Officer at OpenAI, said, "AI is the catalyst for the country's reindustrialization," and the company needs to "bring the supply chain back home."

TSMC's US stocks rose more than 6%, with a total market value exceeding $1.8 trillion.

TSMC's US stock rose over 6%, hitting a new all-time high; total market value exceeding $1.8 trillion, surpassing Broadcom and ranking sixth in US stocks. TSMC's fourth-quarter profit increased by 35% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and reaching a new high, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of profit growth year-on-year.

State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council: Focus on strengthening the leading role of state-owned enterprises in technological innovation, cultivating technological leading enterprises, accelerating the application of research results, and fostering a good innovation ecosystem.

The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) held a meeting in Beijing for local state-owned assets supervision and administration authorities. The meeting emphasized the need to solidly carry out the key tasks of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises by 2026, ensuring a good start and progress in the 15th Five-Year Plan. Efforts should be made to promote quality improvement, efficiency enhancement, and stable growth, strengthen goal-oriented leadership, improve growth quality, enhance market development, tap growth potential, and facilitate economic circulation. The meeting also stressed the importance of strengthening the role of state-owned enterprises in technological innovation, nurturing leading technology companies, accelerating the application of research results, and fostering a favorable innovation ecosystem. Additionally, there should be an emphasis on optimizing the layout and restructuring of the state-owned economy, focusing on promoting the concentration of state-owned capital, optimizing and upgrading traditional industries, and building new pillar industries. Furthermore, the implementation of further deepening reforms of state-owned assets and enterprises should be advanced, improving the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics and enhancing market-oriented operation mechanisms. Efforts should also be made to promote professional, systemic, legal-based, and efficient supervision, improving the state-owned assets supervision system, and effectively strengthening the supervision of overseas state-owned assets. Attention should be given to preventing and resolving major risks, adhering to the principles of risk prevention and control, effectively preventing and controlling risks in key areas, establishing a long-term mechanism, and ensuring that the bottom line of no systematic risk occurs is firmly held.

Lei Jun: The new generation Xiaomi SU7 will offer 9 color options.

Xiaomi Chairman and CEO Lei Jun revealed in a live stream that the new generation Xiaomi SU7 will offer 9 color options. It retains four of the 10 color options from the previous generation products, adds the SU7 Ultra and YU7 classic color options, and introduces three new color options including Cabri Blue. It is understood that the redesigned Xiaomi SU7, expected to be launched in April 2026, will have a starting pre-sale price of 229,900 yuan, with a minimum reservation deposit of 1,000 yuan which is refundable after the product is officially launched. In terms of specifications, the redesigned SU7 will be equipped with a silicon carbide high-voltage platform as standard across the range, with CLTC long-range capability: Standard version 720km, Pro version 902km, Max version 835km; All models will come standard with laser radar and full-range driving assistance features.

Domestic futures night trading session opens

Palladium continued to fall by 4.62%, platinum continued to fall by 4.11%, fuel oil continued to fall by 2.44%, Shanghai crude oil continued to fall by 2.30%, and eggs continued to rise by 2.23%.

Morgan Stanley (MS.US): The financial report for Q4 2025 shows a revenue of $17.89 billion, up from $16.223 billion previously, and exceeding the expected value of $17.5801 billion. Earnings per share were $2.68, compared to $2.22 previously, and higher than the expected value of $2.43.

Li Qiang met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Li Qiang pointed out that China and Canada have strong economic complementarity, and the cooperation between the two countries has strong internal dynamics and great potential. China is willing to strengthen strategic alignment with Canada, continue to restore and promote exchanges at all levels and in all areas, make good use of the dialogue mechanisms between the two governments in economy, trade, science and technology, agriculture, etc., promote stable growth in bilateral trade, improve trade facilitation, deepen cooperation in clean energy, digital technology, modern agriculture, aviation and aerospace, advanced manufacturing, finance and other fields, and cultivate more new economic growth points. China welcomes more Canadian companies to invest in China and hopes that Canada will provide a fair, non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese companies investing in Canada. Both sides should continue to actively support exchanges and cooperation in education, culture, tourism, sports, youth, and local areas, facilitate people-to-people exchanges, and carry forward and deepen the friendly feelings between the people of the two countries. China is willing to strengthen cooperation with Canada in the framework of the United Nations, World Trade Organization, G20, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and other frameworks, jointly uphold multilateralism and free trade, promote the improvement of global governance, and move the international order in a more just and rational direction.

Tesla Model Y is forced to discount in India.

According to reports, informed sources revealed that about one-third of the first batch of vehicles imported by Tesla into India last year are still difficult to sell, as some potential buyers who had pre-ordered have now canceled their orders. These sources stated that, after around 300 Model Y SUV vehicles arrived in India four months ago under the leadership of Elon Musk, low market demand has led to approximately 100 vehicles still awaiting sale. They mentioned that, in order to clear the unsold inventory, Tesla is offering up to a 200,000 rupee discount on certain models of this SUV. Tesla officially entered the Indian market in July last year, with India imposing tariffs as high as 110% on imported cars.

BlackRock's fourth quarter revenue was $70.1 billion, exceeding market expectations of $67.8 billion; net inflows of funds in the fourth quarter reached $3,417.1 billion, surpassing market expectations of $2,874.9 billion; institutional fund net inflows in the fourth quarter were $4.56 billion.

Northbound funds | Northbound trading volume was net sold at 1.515 billion yuan, with Qianwen App accessing Alibaba's business ecosystem. Northbound funds aggressively bought nearly 2 billion Hong Kong dollars of Alibaba (09988) shares.

On January 15th, in the Hong Kong stock market, there was a net selling of 1.515 billion Hong Kong dollars by Northbound investors, with Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) having a net buying of 1.93 billion Hong Kong dollars and Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) having a net selling of 3.446 billion Hong Kong dollars.

Two departments: From August 8, 2025 to December 31, 2027, no value-added tax shall be levied on the bond interest income obtained by foreign institutions investing in China's overseas issued national bonds and local government bonds.

Two departments: From January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2027, the interest income from bonds obtained by overseas institutions investing in the domestic bond market is temporarily exempt from enterprise income tax and value-added tax.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited: disciplinary action taken against two former directors of Emperor Capital Group

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange issued a statement, declaring the former chairman, executive director, and CEO of Emperor Group Holdings Limited, Albert Yeung; and former executive director Calvin Cheng, as unsuitable as directors and condemning their actions. The Stock Exchange ruled that Yeung and Cheng did not cooperate with the Stock Exchange's investigation, therefore violating the Listing Rules.

The APEC Trade Ministers' Meeting will be held in Suzhou in May 2026.

According to "Suzhou Release", this afternoon, the Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference and officially announced that the 32nd APEC Ministerial Meeting will be held in Suzhou in May 2026. At the press conference, He Yongqian, Deputy Director of the Coordination Office for Free Trade Zones and Ports of the Ministry of Commerce, and spokesperson, introduced the relevant situation. She said that economic and trade cooperation plays an important role in APEC cooperation. This meeting is of great significance in the year-long APEC cooperation process, focusing on discussing major economic and trade issues in the Asia-Pacific region and globally, as well as preparing for the economic and trade aspects of the APEC informal leaders' meeting in November.

Central Bank: The exchange rate of RMB is expected to continue to float in both directions and maintain flexibility.

Zou Lan, deputy governor of the central bank, stated that the external situation is still complex and severe. The adjustment magnitude and pace of interest rates of major economies remain uncertain, and geopolitical impacts may persist. This could cause some disturbances to the exchange rate trend. The yuan exchange rate is expected to continue to float in both directions and remain flexible.

Central Bank: Lowering the interest rates for various types of structural monetary policy instruments by 0.25 percentage points.

People's Bank of China spokesperson and deputy governor Zou Lan stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on January 15 that the various structural monetary policy instruments have been lowered by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year loan prime rate reduced to 1.25%, and other term rates adjusted accordingly. The improvement of structural tools and increased support will further assist in the optimization of economic structural transformation.

Closing Review: The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.33% with lower trading volume, and many high-performing stocks hit the limit down.

As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33% to 4112.60 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41% to 14306.73 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.56% to 3367.92 points, and the CSI 50 Index fell 2.28% to 1544.84 points. The total market turnover was 2.91 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.0754 trillion yuan from the previous day. In terms of sector themes, the precious metals, energy metals, and storage chip sectors were active, while the commercial aerospace and AI application sectors adjusted. In the market, the precious metals sector continued to strengthen, with Sichuan Gold hitting the daily limit up and Hunan Silver rising nearly 6%. The energy metals sector rose, with Huayou Cobalt Industry rising more than 6%. The storage chip sector strengthened in the afternoon, with Blue Arrow Electronics hitting the limit up, and Kangqiang Electronics, Bai'ao Chemical, Tsinghua Unigroup, and Sanfu Shares all hitting the limit up. The commercial aerospace sector adjusted, with National Electronics, Star Ring Technology hitting the limit down, Star Map Control falling more than 21%, and Leike Defense, Changjiang Communication, Aerospace Electronics and other stocks hitting the limit down. The AI application sector adjusted, with Tianlong Group, Worth Buying, Hongbo Medicine, Huaren Health and others hitting the limit down, and several stocks such as Tongda Sea and Guangha Communication falling more than 10%.

The Central bank: At the end of December, the broad money supply balance was 34.029 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year. The narrow money supply balance was 11.551 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year. The balance of money in circulation was 1.413 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year. A net cash injection of 1.31 trillion yuan was made during the whole year.

Was 2025 over-inflated? Wolfe downgraded Enterprise Products Partners (EPD.US) to "underperform" - valuation is too high and advantages are no longer present.

Wolfe Research published a research report, downgrading midstream energy company Enterprise Products Partners from "in line with peers" to "underperforming peers," while giving a target price of $31.

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