GMT EIGHT - OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

After the release of data such as US PCE, US stock futures fell in the short term, with Nasdaq futures falling 0.33% intraday, S&P 500 index futures falling 0.24%, and Dow Jones futures falling 0.18%.

The gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States is forecasted to increase by 2.2% in 2025, lower than the 2.8% growth in 2024.

US personal income in December increased by 0.3% as expected, revised from 0.30% to 0.4%. US personal spending in December increased by 0.4% as expected, revised from 0.50% to 0.50%. US actual personal consumption expenditure in December increased by 0.1% as expected, revised from 0.30% to 0.30%.

Spot silver broke through $81 per ounce, rising 3.40% intraday.

Spot gold breaks through $5040 per ounce, rising 0.90% within the day.

Bitcoin breaks through $68,000, rising 1.73% intraday.

Hong Kong stock market closing review: Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index were under pressure throughout the day. Smart Platform Technology rose more than 42% intraday.

Today is the first trading day of the Year of the Horse in the Hong Kong stock market. The market was under pressure throughout the day, with the Hang Seng Index opening 48 points lower at 26,657.84 points and deepening losses in the afternoon. By the close, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.10%, the technology index fell by 2.91%, and the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index market was 165.73 billion Hong Kong dollars. On the market, oil, artificial intelligence, and robotics concept stocks performed well throughout the day, while film and entertainment, internet healthcare, film, and technology stocks maintained a weak trend in the afternoon. In terms of individual stocks, Zhipu surged 42.72% during the day, with the stock price reaching a high of 725 Hong Kong dollars and a total market value exceeding 320 billion Hong Kong dollars. MINIMAX-WP closed up by 14.52%, with a market value also exceeding 300 billion Hong Kong dollars. JD Health and Baidu fell by over 6%, Bilibili and Alibaba fell by around 5%.

Seize the opportunity of 5 trillion yuan in maturing deposits, multiple securities firms accelerate the implementation of response plans.

Many market institutions predict that the scale of residents' time deposits will exceed 50 trillion yuan, and there is a demand for reallocation, which may flow into gold, funds, stocks, insurance, etc.

Tesla launches a cheaper Cybertruck model in the United States, priced at $59,990.

On Thursday, Tesla launched a new, cheaper version of the Cybertruck in the United States, priced at $59,990, making this dual-motor all-wheel drive version the "most affordable" Cybertruck to date. According to pricing information on the Tesla website, the company also lowered the price of its most expensive Cybertruck model, the Cyberbeast, from $114,990 to $99,990.

Dispel the rumors! NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) plans to invest $30 billion in OpenAI, with a pre-investment valuation of $73 billion.

According to reports, Nvidia is in deep negotiations with OpenAI, planning to invest up to $3 billion in this AI startup as part of a new round of funding.

Goldman Sachs: The combined purchasing behavior of central banks around the world and the increased gold exposure of private investors to cope with the Fed's rate cuts will drive the price of gold to slowly climb to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Kimi Claw Beta has launched, allowing for one-click deployment of OpenClaw.

Kimi Claw Beta is now available on the Kimi official website, announcing the ability to one-click cloud deployment or associate with the pre-set OpenClaw, supporting one-click access to over 5000 ClawHub community plugins, including those related to development and coding, browsers, office workflows, expert roles, etc. Along with the launch of Kimi Claw Beta, the Dark Side of the Moon also provides users with 40GB of free space and supports files to be stored and retrieved at any time. In terms of search capabilities, real-time data API can be accessed from professional financial and economic sources, providing fast and accurate information. It is reported that this feature is currently in the early experimental stage and will be first opened to Allegretto and higher tier members to experience and collect feedback.

Trump issues "final ultimatum" to Iran! Middle East situation suddenly tense, crude oil and gold prices both rise.

As US President Trump set a final deadline for negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue, geopolitical risks have risen sharply, driving international oil prices and gold prices higher at the same time.

Spot gold lost the 4990 US dollars per ounce mark, falling 0.13% intraday.

Cat Eye Professional Edition data: Annual total box office exceeds 5 billion in 2026.

According to the professional version of Maoyan data, as of 11:15 on February 19th, the total annual box office for 2026 (including presales) has exceeded 5 billion.

New York gold futures broke through $5020 per ounce, rising 0.43% intraday.

In Jingshun and Kamniak are shorting US Treasury bonds, taking a bearish view on the Fed's interest rate cuts.

Portfolio managers at Invesco and Carmignac are currently playing a game of shorting US Treasury bonds, as they believe the resilience of the American economy may lead to a disappointment in interest rate cuts. They point out that the stronger-than-expected job growth in January, the significant corporate investments in artificial intelligence, and the cautious stance of Federal Reserve policymakers towards rate cuts all indicate that the economy is too robust to warrant a significant easing by the Fed. While some investors still expect rate cuts, other institutions, including French bank BNP Paribas, are skeptical and warn that if rate cuts fail to materialize as expected, US bond prices could face a sharp decline.

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) surpasses Walmart Inc. (WMT.US) in annual revenue for the first time, marking a new stage in competition between the retail giants in AI.

Amazon surpasses Walmart in annual revenue for the first time, becoming the company with the highest annual revenue globally.

Federal Reserve Milan: No longer believe that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates sharply as previously expected this year.

Federal Reserve board member Stephen Milan has lowered his expectations for the magnitude of interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. In an interview, he said recent data shows the US economy is stronger than he had previously predicted. Milan stated in the interview that the latest data shows the employment situation is better than his expectations, but commodity inflation is more stubborn. Therefore, Milan said he no longer believes the Fed should cut interest rates as significantly as he had predicted two months ago. "The labor market conditions are better than my expectations over the past few months," Milan said in the interview. "There are signs that commodity inflation is becoming even more stubborn." He added, "Considering these two factors, I am retracting the prediction I made in December last year." In the Fed's quarterly dot plot in December last year, Milan had predicted that rates would fall to below 2.25% by the end of this year. Now he is leaning towards returning to the relatively moderate stance he held in September, predicting that rates will be below 2.75% by the end of 2026. Milan's latest stance means that starting from the current 3.5% to 3.75% rate level, the Fed will cut rates by a full percentage point this year. However, he remains one of the most dovish officials within the Fed, in stark contrast to the majority of officials who expect only a 25 basis point rate cut this year. This interview is worth noting because it indicates a larger divergence between Milan's views and the economic policy stance of the White House where he used to work.

Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos: Netflix movies will also be shown in theaters.

The labor market remains resilient! The number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly fell to a new low in over a month last week.

In the United States, initial jobless claims dropped to 206,000 for the week ending February 14, the lowest level since the week ending January 10, lower than market expectations of 225,000 and the revised previous value of 229,000.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix "adjust strategy": new storage factory production plan ahead.

SK Hynix plans to advance the trial operation of its Longzhou Phase I wafer factory to February-March next year, while Samsung Electronics will bring forward the production start time of its Pyeongtaek P4 factory from the first quarter of next year to the fourth quarter of this year, approximately three months ahead of the initial production schedule.

The United States ended the strong commercial investment in 2025 with core durable goods orders in December growing 0.6% higher than expected.

Business equipment orders in the United States in December grew more than expected, indicating that capital investment will remain steady as trade policy uncertainty gradually decreases by the end of the year.

Accelerate the layout of the battery metal industry chain! Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR (RIO.US) obtains controlling rights in Canadian lithium company Nemaska.

Lithium giant Ganfeng Group has acquired a controlling stake in Canada's Nemaska Lithium, as part of the company's investment plan to expand its battery metals-related projects in Quebec Province.

Global Semiconductor Latest Outlook

In 2026, the semiconductor industry is facing a paradox filled with risks.

The total box office revenue during the 2026 Spring Festival exceeded 1.6 billion yuan.

As of 7:52 am on February 18th, the total box office of the 2026 Spring Festival period (February 15th to February 23rd), including pre-sales, has reached 1.625 billion yuan.

San Francisco Fed President Daly: Transformational AI technology may boost the economy without raising inflation, and the Federal Reserve needs to catch signals early.

Dailey said that although there is not yet sufficient evidence to show that artificial intelligence (AI) has fundamentally changed the U.S. economy, policymakers must remain open to the potential impacts of this new technology.

Traditional service industry as "AI storm" haven: Blackstone (BX.US) plans to acquire home service provider Champions Group for 2.5 billion U.S. dollars.

Blackstone Group (BX.US) is in advanced negotiations to acquire residential services provider Champions Group for approximately $2.5 billion.

ADP: In the four weeks leading up to January 31st, the average weekly increase in employment in the US private sector was 10,250 people.

NASDAQ 100 index futures continue to decline, down 1.1% now.

Pre-market trading in US stocks: Gold stocks and technology stocks are generally down, Nasdaq 100 index futures are down 0.55%.

Before the US stock market opens, tech stocks are generally down, with Micron Technology falling about 1%, Google A falling about 1%, and Intel falling about 1%. Gold stocks are also down, with Kinross Gold falling about 3%, Harmony Gold falling about 4%, and AngloGold Ashanti falling about 4%. The futures of the three major US stock indexes are all falling, with Nasdaq 100 index futures down 0.55%.

European stocks opened mixed, with the German DAX index falling by 0.46%, the UK FTSE 100 index rising by 0.26%, the French CAC40 index rising by 0.11%, the Euro Stoxx 50 index falling by 0.11%, and the Italian FTSE MIB index rising by 0.19%.

"Chinese artificial intelligence startup 'Yuezhian' seeks a valuation of 10 billion dollars."

According to reports, the dark side of the moon is seeking a target valuation of $10 billion in a round of financing expansion that has already involved investment from Alibaba and Tencent Holdings, hoping to capitalize on investors' strong interest in Chinese AI model startups. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the company developing the Kimi chatbot started new financing negotiations in late January to meet investor demand. Just about a month ago, the company completed a $500 million financing at a valuation of $4.3 billion. The aforementioned sources, who requested anonymity, stated that existing investors including Alibaba, Tencent, and Five Source Capital have already committed to inject more than $700 million in the initial phase of the latest round of financing.

From confrontation to dialogue: Trump sends negotiation signal "cooling down" risk aversion, gold prices under pressure, down by 1%

As of the submission of the article, the price of gold fell by 0.68% to $4956.65 per ounce; while gold futures contracts for delivery in April fell by 0.83% to $4972.89 per ounce.

Where is the US dollar pointing? The market holds its breath waiting for the minutes of the Fed meeting, and the window for a rate cut in June may open.

The market is waiting for signals expected to be released later this week regarding when the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates.

The total box office revenue during the Spring Festival of 2026 exceeded 800 million.

According to Maoyan's professional data, the total box office for the 2026 Spring Festival period has exceeded 800 million, with "The Wanderer" franchise continuing to lead the way.

Former Bank of Japan board member sends signal: high probability of raising interest rates in April, steadily progressing towards normalization starting at 1.25%

According to a former member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, it is highly likely that the Bank of Japan will decide to raise interest rates at its meeting in April this year.

AI-driven storage continuous iteration! Samsung's PIM technology mass production is imminent or bypass CPU, GPU for direct computation.

PIM stands for Processor-In-Memory, which places computational units directly at the storage level of memory; Samsung Electronics is collaborating with major customers to develop LPDDR5X PIM technology, with samples expected to be available in the second half of this year; SK Hynix demonstrated AiMX based on PIM architecture at CES 2026.

Ali Qianwen launches native visual-language model Qwen3.5-397B-A17B

On February 16th, Ali Qianwen officially released Qwen 3.5.

The box office of the new film during the 2026 Spring Festival season exceeded 700 million yuan.

According to the professional version of Maoyan data, the box office of new films during the Spring Festival in 2026 exceeded 700 million yuan. "Flying Life 3," "Silent Awakening," and "Boonie Bears: The Bears Have Every Year" currently rank as the top three in the Spring Festival box office for new films.

European stocks open higher

The Euro Stoxx 50 index opened up by 0.3%, the German DAX index rose by 0.4%, the UK FTSE 100 index increased by 0.2%, and the French CAC 40 index rose by 0.1%.

WeChat can now post golden moments on your circle of friends.

On February 16, Tencent's Public Relations Director, @Tencent Zhang Jun, posted a message saying: Many people are asking how to create a golden Moments on WeChat. The operating instructions are here, now you can create a "New Year Moments" in the lucky treasure and publish it, so that you can trigger it. Liking others' golden Moments also gives you the chance to receive red envelopes. At the same time, both the lucky treasure and WeChat need to be updated to the latest version.

On New Year's Eve, Alibaba will release the new generation of open source Qwen3.5 model.

Insiders reveal that Alibaba will open source the new generation Qwen3.5 model on New Year's Eve tonight. The model has achieved a comprehensive innovation in model architecture and is expected to reach a new milestone in domestic model development. Last year, Alibaba released Qwen2.5-Max on New Year's Eve in the late night.

Yamato: Reiterate optimism for the Chinese market, adding LAOPU GOLD (06181) and KINGSOFT CLOUD (03896) to the preferred list.

Although the likelihood of large-scale stimulus policies is still considered low, the gradual introduction of stimulus measures and strong policy guarantees can boost investment sentiment in the short term.

Siasun Robot & Automation gathers for "cramming" the Spring Festival Gala! From performing on stage to actually being able to use it requires "real skill"

Many robot companies are vying to form groups to debut on the Spring Festival Gala this year. However, the program team at CCTV is more cautious and has already rejected multiple robot manufacturers.

EB Securities: Data center construction reshaping the American electricity landscape, optimistic about the benefits of gas turbines, power equipment, and energy storage.

The structural issue of power shortages in the United States is transforming into long-term, high-certainty investment opportunities, with gas turbines, power equipment, and energy storage all being beneficiaries.

Ethereum rises above $2100, up 2.61% on the day.

Bitcoin breaks through $70,000, rising 1.71% within the day.

New stock news | Hunan Junxin Environmental Protection secondary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

On February 13th, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed that Hunan Junxin Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Junxin Shares") submitted an application for listing on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with China International Capital Corporation and CITIC Securities acting as its joint sponsors.

Anthropic appoints former Microsoft CFO and Trump aide Liddell to board

On Friday local time, artificial intelligence company Anthropic announced the appointment of senior executive and political figure Chris Liddell to its board of directors. Liddell previously served as Chief Financial Officer at Microsoft, Vice Chairman at General Motors, and Deputy Chief of Staff at the White House during the first term of President Trump. According to his personal website, he has also been deeply involved in three US presidential transitions. Anthropic's invitation to Liddell to join the board may help improve its relationship with the Trump administration - in recent months, the Trump administration has publicly criticized the artificial intelligence startup. Venture capitalist David Sachs currently serves as the Trump administration's lead on artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency affairs, and he accused Anthropic of supporting "woke AI" last October due to the company's stance on regulatory issues.

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Fed official Mester: Businesses are feeling cost pressure, and the public is troubled by inflation.

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Federal Reserve's Moulton: Neutral real interest rate is appropriate.

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Federal Reserve Morsalem: The actual federal funds rate is at or below the neutral rate.

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Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard: The atmosphere at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings is one of mutual respect and collegiality.

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Microsoft: Asha Sharma has been appointed as Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer of Microsoft's Gaming Business.

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