GMT EIGHT - OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Wu Yongming appeared at the Q&A session on "changing leadership" and emphasized that Qwen is the "most important matter" for Alibaba.

Today, Lin Junyang, the core person in charge of Ali's Thousand Questions, announced his resignation from the Thousand Questions project, triggering widespread attention. Sina Technology learned from internal sources that in fact, as early as a month ago, Lin Junyang had begun preparing for his resignation. However, as of press time, Alibaba has not made any response to this news. According to informed sources, after Lin Junyang announced his resignation, an All Hands meeting was held internally at Alibaba for communication, with many people including Alibaba Chairman and CEO Wu Yongming, Alibaba Chief Talent Officer Jiang Fang, and Alibaba Cloud CTO Zhou Jingren responding in various ways. Wu Yongming attended the internal meeting and pointed out, "The situation in China is special, resources are hard to satisfy everyone, we apologize for not knowing about the resource issue earlier, and Qwen is the first priority, and the CEO of China has made the greatest effort." Regarding Lin Junyang's movements, it is rumored that Jiang Fang responded at the internal meeting that "the company cannot accept irrational demands to retain employees at all costs", but Alibaba has not given a final, definitive answer on whether Lin Junyang will stay or go.

The US Treasury Secretary announced that the US's 15% tariffs on global goods are expected to take effect this week.

On March 4th local time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Benet expressed that the new 15% "global import tariff" is expected to officially take effect at some point this week. Benet stated that this new tariff rate was decided by U.S. President Trump last month. On February 20th, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration lacked clear legal authorization for the large-scale tariff measures implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. That day, the Supreme Court Justices upheld the lower court ruling by a vote of 6-3, determining that Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to implement tariff policies exceeded his statutory authority. The Supreme Court reached this conclusion in lawsuits brought by businesses and 12 states in the U.S. These businesses and states believed that Trump's unilateral imposition of import taxes based on this law was unprecedented. After the ruling was announced, Trump announced on February 20th that he would instead impose a "global import tariff" of 10% for 150 days, replacing the tariffs deemed illegal by the Supreme Court, citing Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Later on the 21st, U.S. President Trump announced on his social platform "True Social" that he would raise the import tariff rate from 10% to 15% for global goods.

The Ministry of Finance, along with two other departments, has released tax relief policies on imported exhibition goods sold during the period of international exhibitions held in the central and western regions during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.

In order to support the successful organization of international exhibitions in the central and western regions, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued the "Notice on Preferential Tax Policies for the Import Exhibition Goods Sold during the Exhibition Period of International Exhibitions in the Central and Western Regions during the 'Eleventh Five-Year Plan' Period". It specifies that for the China-Mongolia Expo, China-Russia Expo, China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo, China-ASEAN Expo, China-South Asia Expo and China Kunming Import and Export Commodity Fair, ChinaQinghai Green Development Investment and Trade Fair, China-Eurasia Expo held from 2026 to 2030, as well as the China-Northeast Asia Expo, China-Arab Countries Expo held from 2026 to 2027, each exhibitor can continue to enjoy exemption from import tariffs, import value-added tax, and consumption tax on imported exhibition goods within the tax-free quota during the exhibition period, and also expand the tax-free categories and tax-free sales quotas of each exhibition appropriately.

US Treasury Secretary Benson stated that in the coming days, Iran's ballistic missiles and shelters will be destroyed.

Southbound funds sold a net of 466 million Hong Kong dollars today.

In terms of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Tencent Holdings and Changfei Optic Fiber Cable respectively received net purchases of HKD 7.91 billion and HKD 2.48 billion; Alibaba-W had the highest net sell amount, totaling HKD 16.38 billion. As for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Nanfang Hengsheng Technology and CNOOC received net purchases of HKD 9.44 billion and HKD 6.14 billion respectively; Alibaba-W had the highest net sell amount, totaling HKD 18.22 billion.

Hong Kong stocks closed: The Hang Seng Index fell 2.013%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.964%.

Citigroup fell 3.811%, MTR Corporation fell 3.831%, China Life fell 3.928%, Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceuticals fell 4.087%, Cheung Kong Holdings fell 4.469%, WuXi AppTec fell 4.595%, and AIA Group fell 4.706%.

From the "Korean Wave" frenzy to the "cold wave" trampling! Oil prices skyrocket, overturning the South Korean stock market with the most severe drop since 2008.

Large-scale foreign capital outflow! Energy impacts severely hit the South Korean stock market. South Korean stocks face a rare historical panic selling, marking the largest two-day drop since 2008.

Goldman Sachs: The "three major long-term positives" of the US stock market are all collapsing, and Iran is exacerbating the trend.

Goldman Sachs analysts warn that the "three major pillars" supporting the strong rise in US stocks over the past year - AI dividends, cyclical recovery, and interest rate cut expectations - are facing the risk of total collapse. The energy surge triggered by the Middle East conflict has become the core catalyst. According to their calculations, a $10 increase in oil prices will weaken the US GDP by about 10 basis points. Against the backdrop of the S&P 500's high P/E ratio of 22 times, this will cause huge damage to valuations. If oil prices continue to rise, the US CPI in May is likely to return to 3.0%, which will kill the recent possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Stock market correction not over yet? Goldman Sachs CEO warns market has not truly priced in "cost of war"

Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon was surprised by the "mild" stock market reaction in the backdrop of war.

HK Stock Market Move | Oil stocks collectively drop as the three major oil companies collectively warn of risks. Trump says he will provide military escort and insurance for oil tankers.

Oil stocks collectively fell, as of the time of writing, CNOOC (02883) fell by 8.91% to HK$10.12; PetroChina (00857) fell by 4.41% to HK$9.97; Sinopec (00883) fell by 4.13% to HK$26.46; Sinopec (00386) fell by 3.68% to HK$5.24.

Spot silver broke through $85 per ounce, rising 3.71% intraday.

National Bureau of Statistics: China's manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

On March 4th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the operating conditions of the China Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February 2026.

The three major stock indexes rebounded, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index turning higher, while the Shanghai Composite Index is currently down by 0.84%.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.00% to 4081.354 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.57% to 13942.926 points; the ChiNext Index fell by 0.84% to 3182.593 points.

Polycrystalline silicon continuous main contract fell 5% intraday, now reported at 41980.00 yuan.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell by 3% to 241.41 points.

Don't count on Trump to save the market anymore! Wall Street warns in unison: this time he can't control the situation.

Wall Street strategists are warning one after another that in the face of the situation in Iran, we must not rely on so-called "Trump put options" anymore.

The balance of financing in the two cities decreased by 22.478 billion yuan.

As of March 3rd, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's margin balance was reported at 1.33864 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.823 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's margin balance was reported at 1.291491 trillion yuan, a decrease of 12.655 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the total margin balance of the two exchanges was 2.625355 trillion yuan, a decrease of 22.478 billion yuan from the previous trading day.

The Iranian situation sparks concerns about inflation, leading to an urgent withdrawal from the bond market and betting on interest rate cuts.

Futures market traders are significantly lowering their expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as this adjustment stems from concerns about inflation resurging due to the conflict with Iran.

It's not about being disrupted by AI, but about mastering AI! Leading cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike (CRWD.US) exceeded expectations in all aspects of performance.

CrowdStrike uses strong performance data to tell investors that the AI-driven cybersecurity super tool previously launched by Anthropic is not enough to pose a significant threat to platform-based cybersecurity giants.

Spot gold broke through $5120 per ounce, up 0.63% on the day.

ASMPT (00522) announced that its net profit for the year 2025 is 902 million Hong Kong dollars, an annual increase of 163.6% after tax.

ASMPT (00522) announced its performance for the year 2025, with sales revenue reaching HK$14.52 billion (US$1.86 billion), representing a 9.8% annual growth. The comprehensive net profit after tax was HK$0.902 billion, marking a 163.6% increase from the previous year. The basic earnings per share were HK$2.17, with a final dividend per share of HK$0.34 and a special cash dividend per share of HK$0.79.

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warns ships not to transit through the "war time conditions" of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that the Strait of Hormuz is in a state of war, and vessels passing through it "may face risks from missiles or unmanned drones." The statement warned international shipping companies not to pass through the waterway, as the Strait of Hormuz is completely under the surveillance and control of the Iranian Navy. Over ten oil tankers have been attacked by Iran for disregarding the warnings.

FTSE A50 futures fell 0.96% in continuous overnight trading, closing at 14583 points.

International oil prices rose significantly on the 3rd day.

International oil prices rose significantly on the 3rd. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $3.33 to $74.56 per barrel, an increase of 4.67%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for May delivery in London rose by $3.66 to $81.40 per barrel, an increase of 4.71%.

The three major stock indexes of US stocks closed down.

On Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down, with the Dow falling 0.83%, the Nasdaq falling 1.02%, and the S&P falling 0.94%. NVIDIA dropped more than 1%, Apple slightly fell, Google dropped nearly 1%, Microsoft rose more than 1%, Broadcom fell more than 1%, Tesla fell more than 2%, and Asmc fell more than 4%.

Trump: I have ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade passing through the Gulf region.

Lenzing plunges 9%, dropping over 15% in two days.

LME copper futures fell by $153 to $12,955 per ton. LME aluminum futures rose by $56 to $3,251 per ton. LME zinc futures fell by $48 to $3,270 per ton. LME lead futures fell by $26 to $1,936 per ton. LME nickel futures fell by $40 to $17,120 per ton. LME tin futures fell by $4,842, a decrease of nearly 9.02%, to $48,843 per ton, with a cumulative decline of 15.39% in the past two trading days. LME cobalt futures remained flat at $56,290 per ton.

Before taking office, Voss has faced numerous challenges, with colleagues questioning whether the soaring oil prices will make it difficult for him to fulfill Trump's dream of interest rate cuts.

Kevin Warsh still has several months before taking the helm of the Federal Reserve, but with the trajectory of the US economy and the stance of his future colleagues conflicting with the expectations of the White House, Warsh faces many obstacles to lowering interest rates as President Trump desires. Most Federal Reserve officials believe that, given that inflation remains high, the labor market appears to be stabilizing, and there is no urgent reason to rush to push for more interest rate cuts. The renewed conflict in the Middle East, leading to the largest oil price increase in four years, only serves to further strengthen their cautious attitude. Some policymakers have expressed doubts about the arguments behind Warsh's vision for interest rate cuts and his commitment to reducing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Currently, the Senate has not yet scheduled a confirmation hearing for Warsh's nomination.

Iran claims to have struck its second "Sadd" anti-missile system.

According to the Iranian Student News Agency, on the 3rd, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have launched missiles that hit the second "THAAD" anti-missile system deployed in the Middle East. According to the Iranian state broadcaster citing a statement from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, on the 1st, the Iranian Air Force launched missile attacks on the Al-Rayus base in the United Arab Emirates, destroying the "THAAD" anti-missile system deployed there by Israel.

US Stock Market Move | Concept stocks of chip companies fell across the board, with Intel Corporation (INTC.US) falling more than 6%.

On Tuesday, chip stocks fell across the board, with Intel (INTC.US) dropping more than 6%.

Wang Yi talks on the phone with Israeli Foreign Minister Saar.

On March 3, 2026, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, had a phone conversation with Israeli Foreign Minister Saar. After listening to Saar's introduction of Israel's current stance, Wang Yi stated that China has always advocated for resolving international and regional hot-spot issues through dialogue and consultation. All parties should abide by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and refrain from using or threatening to use force in international relations, which is also in the fundamental interests of all parties including Israel. Over the years, China has been committed to promoting a political solution to the Iran nuclear issue, and the recent Iran-US negotiations have made significant progress, including addressing Israel's security concerns. Unfortunately, this process has been interrupted by gunfire. China opposes any military strikes by Israel and the US against Iran. The use of force cannot truly solve problems, but instead will bring new issues and serious consequences. The true value of military strength lies not in the battlefield, but in preventing war. China calls for an immediate cessation of military actions to prevent the further spread and escalation of conflicts. China has always maintained a just position on Middle East issues and will continue to play a constructive role in easing tensions. Wang Yi requested that Israel take concrete measures to ensure the safety of Chinese personnel and institutions, to which Saar expressed Israel's high regard and commitment to protecting the safety of Chinese personnel and institutions.

Before people arrive, the road is already difficult! Jerome Powell's path to cutting interest rates at the Federal Reserve encounters multiple headwinds - colleagues questioning, data diverging, and balance sheet reduction being blocked.

Kevin Warsh is a few months away from officially taking the helm of the Federal Reserve, but his ability to fulfill President Trump's promise of interest rate cuts is already facing significant obstacles.

XTALPI (02228) announces a happy profit forecast. It is expected that the after-tax profit and profit attributable to company equity holders in 2025 will be no less than 1 billion yuan, and the company will achieve a full-year profit for the first time.

Kingboard Holdings (02228) announced that the group expects its net profit and profit attributable to equity holders in 2025 to be no less than RMB 100 million, turning losses into profits year-on-year, achieving annual profitability for the first time.

The central bank releases the January 2026 operating conditions of the financial market.

The Central Bank released the financial market operation situation in January 2026. In January 2026, net financing of government bonds was 976.39 billion yuan, an increase of 283.13 billion yuan year-on-year; net financing of corporate bonds was 503.26 billion yuan, an increase of 57.90 billion yuan year-on-year. At the end of January 2026, the custody balance of the bond market was 19.77 trillion yuan. In January 2026, the transaction volume of treasury futures market was 6.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.74% year-on-year. At the end of January 2026, the open interest of treasury futures was 748,000 contracts, an increase of 36.3% year-on-year; the closing price of the 10-year treasury futures main contract was 108.3 yuan, an increase of 0.42% month-on-month. At the end of January 2026, the Shanghai Gold Exchange Au contract closed at 1,164.0 yuan per gram, an increase of 19.5% month-on-month. In January 2026, the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold trading volume was 5970.2 tons, an increase of 18.6% year-on-year; the gold trading volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18,000 tons, an increase of 52.2% year-on-year.

Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 6.081 billion yuan today. In terms of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Yingfu Fund and Tencent Holdings received net purchases of 2.343 billion Hong Kong dollars and 1.09 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively; Alibaba-W had the largest net selling amount of 977 million Hong Kong dollars; as for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Tencent Holdings and Southbound Hengsheng Technology received net purchases of 1.468 billion Hong Kong dollars and 1.413 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively; Chao Fei Fiber Optic Cable had the largest net selling amount of 293 million Hong Kong dollars.

In just three hours early on the morning of the 3rd of Eastern Time, the US State Department issued a total of 6 evacuation orders, requiring non-essential government personnel in Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE to evacuate.

The ChiNext index fell by 2.00% to 3228.138 points; the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.28% to 4128.848 points; and the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.64% to 14084.119 points.

The Hang Seng Index fell more than 1%, now trading at 25797.410 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index is currently down 2.233%.

The Hang Seng Technology Index fell more than 2%, now standing at 4889.140 points; the Hang Seng Index is currently down 0.804%.

JP Morgan raises COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation's target price to 24 Hong Kong dollars in one move, "Black Swan overlapping" boosting the profitability of ultra-large oil tankers.

The line points out that Venezuelan crude oil has returned to compliant trading channels, tightening the supply of mainstream oil tankers, but has not increased the total global capacity.

Methanol continuous main contract rose by 11% intraday, currently trading at 2557.00 yuan.

A new giant worth 12 billion U.S. dollars is born: Thoma Bravo intends to merge its subsidiaries Auctane and WWEX, aiming to create a new "Toras" in shipping technology.

Thoma Bravo is finalizing a major deal to merge its e-commerce logistics software giant Auctane with the soon-to-be-acquired third-party logistics platform WWEX Group.

The Hang Seng Technology Index has fallen by over 1%, now trading at 4938.720 points; The Hang Seng Index is currently down 0.462%.

The lithium carbonate continuous main contract fell 12% intraday and is now trading at 152,540.00 yuan.

HK Stock Market Move | JIAXIN INTL RES(03858) rose more than 7% in trading "war metal" tungsten product prices started strong in March

Intraday, Jiashin International Resources (03858) rose by over 7%, rising by 5.81% as of the latest report, reaching 127.5 Hong Kong dollars, with a turnover of 1.59 billion Hong Kong dollars.

Less than a day has doubled! LNG shipping rates are now "violently soaring" with daily rates surpassing $200,000.

According to informed sources, the daily rental rate of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport ships in the Atlantic Basin has been raised by ship owners and brokers to over $200,000, nearly doubling the price quoted less than a day ago.

Kholemuz is crucial! If oil prices break through the $100 mark, the US stock bull market may face a "major retreat crisis".

The strategy of buying into US stocks on dips becomes dangerous under the macro threat of oil prices rising above $100. When the $100 oil price alarm goes off, the old Wall Street script of buying low may need to be rewritten.

The financing balance of the two cities increased by 4.577 billion yuan compared to the previous day.

As of March 2, the balance of financing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 1,3436.87 billion yuan, an increase of 28.14 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the balance of financing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was reported at 1,3041.46 billion yuan, an increase of 17.63 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the combined balance of the two exchanges was 26,478.33 billion yuan, an increase of 45.77 billion yuan from the previous trading day.

Spot silver breaks through $91 per ounce, rising 1.90% intraday.

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