GMT EIGHT - OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Can AI turn a profit? The stock price trends of tech giants this week have provided the market's answer.

The market is re-evaluating the winners in AI, no longer simply rewarding the scale of investment, but focusing more on the ability of companies to convert AI into revenue, profit, and cash flow.

China Securities Co., Ltd.: Yen intervention again, whats different this time?

The United States' substantial intervention or enhancement of support for the yen may lead to fluctuations in the yen within the range of 155-160 in the short term, but it is highly likely to return above 160 in the second half of the year, which cannot reverse the larger trend of depreciation; if the yen again loses stability and depreciates, the Ministry of Finance does not rule out continued intervention.

Sinolink: The domestic AI sector is clearing more slowly than that overseas; a comprehensive improvement in non-AI sectors will still require patience.

The rebound force globally may vary.

The "Anna Karenina Principle" of monetary policy: Waller must maintain credibility, so the Federal Reserve must raise interest rates in September?

A Bank of America report cites the "Anna Karenina Principle" warning that the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation require coordination among credibility, expectations, and policy; failure of any one element could lead to imbalance. Waller's statements at the press conference were vague, prompting the market to respond with rising long-term rates and a steepening curve, indicating pressure on credibility. Bank of America believes that with resilient employment and stubborn inflation, if data cannot provide dovish support, a rate hike in September is not only a policy option but also a necessary step for the Federal Reserve to restore its credibility.

CITIC SEC: The probability of a general recovery in August is still on the rise, and the configuration strategy should gradually shift from trading on oversold conditions to balance.

The probability of a general rebound in August is still increasing, but it is not simply a case of an oversold recovery. The negative narrative surrounding non-AI sectors has improved marginally, and the funding environment also supports appropriate recovery.

Korea Storage Research: Samsung's long-term contract "limits the decline but does not limit the rise," and spot prices continue to rebound ahead of the peak season in the fourth quarter.

According to a survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Samsung Electronics will incorporate 60%-70% of its memory sales into long-term agreements, with terms clearly favoring the supply side: price declines are limited (no more than 5% in a single quarter), while there is essentially no upper limit on price increases. Against the backdrop of surging demand for AI computing power and constrained production capacity, Samsung uses long-term agreements to lock in major clients while retaining pricing flexibility. DRAM and NAND spot prices have continued to rebound ahead of the fourth quarter peak season, supported by both AI capital expenditures and the inventory replenishment cycle driving up memory prices.

Great Wall Motors: In July 2026, both automobile production and sales achieved year-on-year growth.

Great Wall Motors announced that in July 2026, the company sold 108,067 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 3.54%. The cumulative sales for the year reached 691,962 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.64%. The production for July was 110,045 units, up 8.91% year-on-year, bringing the cumulative production for the year to 735,913 units, an increase of 9.47%. In July, overseas sales amounted to 62,015 units, with cumulative sales from January to July reaching 353,441 units. New energy vehicle sales stood at 34,651 units, with cumulative sales from January to July totaling 179,285 units.

The "overlooked" big market event: the joint intervention of the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, and the "rare" involvement of the U.S. Treasury! Is Besant quietly "saving the market"?

The U.S. Treasury Department rarely intervened in the foreign exchange market this week, commissioning Wall Street banks through the New York Federal Reserve to sell euros and buy yen, joining forces with Japan and South Korea to implement the largest coordinated foreign exchange intervention in nearly three decades. Analysts believe that this move goes beyond merely stabilizing the exchange rate; the core aim is to prevent further weakening of asset markets in Japan and South Korea, thereby reducing the risk of financial pressure transmitting to the AI supply chain. By intervening in the yen through non-dollar trading methods, the U.S. also aims to shift pressure away from the dollar and avoid additional shocks to the dollar system.

Central Bank: Further Enhance Financial Management and Service Levels

Promote key legislative amendment projects. Carry out the design of financial statistical systems and standard frameworks, and continue to enhance statistical monitoring in key areas. Improve the quality and efficiency of cash, payment, treasury, and credit services, further optimize financial services in counties, and strengthen guidance and monitoring of financial institutions' services in county areas. Deepen technological management and innovative applications, and improve the cybersecurity management system within the financial industry. Conduct the fifth round of international anti-money laundering assessments effectively. Coordinate safety management efforts, ensure effective flood prevention and disaster response, and guarantee the safe and stable operation of important information systems and financial infrastructure.

The signal at the bottom of the food and beverage sector is clear, and institutions suggest seizing the overall trend of consumer goods for the year and prioritizing clearing white liquor targets.

Guotai Junan Securities stated that under the rebalancing of the market, the underlying value of the food and beverage sector is becoming more apparent.

Why did Hong Kong stocks make a comeback in July?

In July, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 13%, outpacing major global markets during the same period. This round of rebound in Hong Kong stocks is mainly attributed to multiple factors, including valuation advantages, capital inflow, and changes in market style.

TACO! Trump "cancels strikes on Iran" after the Saudi Crown Prince's call "urging to ease tensions."

On August 1, U.S. President Trump stated on social media that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had requested America to postpone launching attacks. Based on this request, he agreed to cancel military strike operations.

Brent crude oil has dropped below $84 in the dark market, with an intraday decline of over 6.8%.

How Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) Became One of the World's Top Chip Companies in Ten Years

Amazon's chip business has recently achieved an annual revenue run rate that has surpassed $25 billion, marking a three-digit year-on-year growth.

Brent crude fell below $86 in the dark market, dropping over 5% during the day.

The two storage giants will announce their earnings next week.

Next week marks the peak of the earnings season for U.S. stocks, with more than a quarter of the S&P 500 constituents set to report their results, including the commercial aerospace giant SpaceX, the computing chip star AMD, as well as storage giants SanDisk and Western Digital.

Shenwan Hongyuan Group: The major wave of upward momentum in the AI industry chain is still in need of time to restart; attention should be paid to rotation opportunities in non-tech directions.

Shenwan Hongyuan stated that a significant rebound in the AI industry chain still requires time to restart, and for the time being, it is important to continue focusing on investment opportunities in non-technology sectors.

72 trillion won in a single day! Foreign investment net purchases set a record on Friday! Wall Street: The funding headwinds for Korean stocks have dissipated.

On July 31, foreign investment net purchased approximately 7.2 trillion won worth of KOSPI stocks in a single day, setting a record for the highest single-day net purchase in history.

The "money-burning" effect of AI is spreading: North American tech giants' CDS soared across the board in July, with a significant increase in the risk premium required in the credit market.

Since July, the credit default swaps (CDS) for North American tech giants have generally widened, indicating that the North American market is raising its pricing for the credit risks associated with these companies.

Beisent "little note" exposed: Is the U.S. worried that the next round of yen manipulation will harm U.S. bonds?

Analysis indicates that, as a "veteran of the currency market," Bessent, who led the Soros Fund to short the yen in 2012 and made over a billion dollars in just three months, is personally stepping in to "save the yen" this time to prevent the situation in Japan from spiraling out of control and affecting U.S. Treasury bonds.

China Securities Co., Ltd.: The AI computing hardware remains in high demand, and signals of performance recovery in software companies are gradually increasing.

CITIC Construction Investment Securities stated that the announcements of A-share computer mid-term results and the iteration of overseas models jointly validate the continued prosperity of the AI industry chain. The performance resilience of hardware sectors such as AI servers and intelligent computing infrastructure is prominent, while software and AI application companies are also beginning to show signs of operational recovery and revenue realization.

The U.S. side: plans to launch "intense bombings" this weekend.

According to U.S. sources, Israel and the U.S. are planning to launch "the most severe bombing yet" on Iran's energy facilities, with operations potentially lasting through the entire weekend.

Memory market, a once-in-a-century event.

Nomura expects that DRAM revenue will grow from approximately $80 billion in 2022 to an astonishing over $2.06 trillion by 2030.

The "Black Storm" in July is not the end; the real test in August has only just begun.

In August, the core issue facing the market is no longer "how much further will it drop," but rather "after the rebound, has the pricing logic already changed?"

The U.S. plans to launch "intense bombardment" this weekend; Iran: comprehensive counterattack plan is ready.

On August 1, the U.S. State Department issued a broad security warning to American citizens in the Middle East, advising them to consider evacuation or to prepare for a swift departure. According to U.S. sources, Israel and the U.S. are planning to launch "the most intense bombing" of Iranian energy facilities to date, with operations expected to last throughout the weekend. However, U.S. President Trump has not yet given the final order for action. The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the same day, emphasizing its determination to continue resisting. The ceasefire memorandum between the U.S. and Iran has effectively become a mere formality. The trigger has not yet been pulled, but the shadow of escalating tensions once again looms over the Middle East.

Brent crude oil broke through $91 in the dark market, rising over 3.8% during the day.

Qatar's LNG ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and lost control, causing the situation in the Middle East to suddenly escalate.

A transport ship loaded with liquefied natural gas from Qatar was hit by a projectile while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sudden escalation of tensions in the Middle East and placing new pressures on the global energy market.

JP Morgan: The de-leveraging phase for hedge funds has come to a close, and AI computing investments have finally achieved a profitable cycle.

The extreme reduction in market positions that had persisted for two months is returning to normal. In the second quarter, the extreme position data showing concentrated selling of technology and Korean-related holdings across the market has been restored to historically neutral levels.

AWS accelerates again, and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) AI investment enters the return verification period.

To assess the quality of Amazon's current performance, attention should be focused on four main areas: operating profit, AWS growth rate, advertising growth, and cash flow pressure.

Goldman Sachs: In July, the crowded trades were smashed, and while the U.S. stock market bull run hasn't ended, it's become harder to navigate.

The outlook for the U.S. stock market remains favorable, but the risk-reward ratio is no longer cheap, and the upward elasticity of global stocks is weaker than before. The bull market is not ruled out, but we are not entering a phase of "buying and lying down to win."

BYD's sales in July exceeded 419,000 units, with nearly 180,000 units sold overseas.

BYD has released its latest sales data, achieving a total automobile sales of 419,211 units in July 2026, with passenger vehicle sales reaching 411,072 units. The overseas market has become a core growth driver, with overseas sales of passenger cars and pickup trucks in July reaching 179,841 units, a year-on-year increase of 124.3%. Among the segmented brands, the Dynasty and Ocean networks continued to be the main contributors, with a combined sales of 350,178 units; the Equation Leopard, Tengshi, and Yangwang brands delivered 41,213 units, 19,196 units, and 485 units respectively. From a cumulative perspective, BYD Group's total sales from January to July 2026 have reached 2,227,722 units, of which overseas cumulative sales of passenger cars and pickup trucks amount to 969,208 units.

Rumors about OpenAI's new model Astra are heating up: Long-term agents may become a new narrative in the AI capital market.

If Astra is successfully launched, it will further reinforce the investment logic of "Agentic AI," which refers to intelligent agent AI.

New Stock News | Lijing Technology Re-applies to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the World's Second Largest Consumer Electronics Camera Module Manufacturer

The company is a global leader in precision optical solutions, focusing on the mid-to-high-end optical module and system integration market for global consumer electronics, automotive electronics, smart office applications, as well as emerging fields such as intelligent robotics, XR smart terminals, and smart glasses.

In response to "Healthy China 2030," CHINA FEIHE (06186) launched 24-hour premium colostrum powder to support the upgrade of protein nutrition for all citizens.

Working together with CCTV to promote a national health initiative, leveraging 64 years of research to improve the nutritional framework for the entire life cycle.

The new regulations on individual loan interest fees are officially implemented.

From an industry perspective, the new regulations will further drive consumer finance institutions to improve their management systems, raising higher demands for product design, business processes, cooperation channels, and system capabilities. For institutions that operate in compliance with regulations, the new rules are not only regulatory requirements but also an important opportunity to enhance service capabilities and build market trust.

The demand for AI continues! South Korea's exports in July hit the second highest in history, with chip exports exceeding $40 billion for two consecutive months.

As the chip craze continues, South Korea's export momentum persists.

The "Big Four" banks are gathering together! The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has today resumed the issuance of five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit, and what does the consistent pricing of up to 1.6% mean?

Following the launch of 5-year large-denomination time deposits by Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Construction Bank in July, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has also decided to follow suit. Currently, the highest pricing for the 5-year large-denomination time deposits among the four major banks stands at 1.6%.

Ray Dalio's major judgment: A textbook-style AI asset bubble is brewing, and the "big cycle," occurring once every 80 years, is entering its final phase.

Ray Dalio, the founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater, recently issued a warning: typical characteristics of an AI asset bubble have emerged, and coupled with an internal debt crisis and external geopolitical conflicts, humanity is at the tail end of an "economic cycle" recession that occurs once every 80 years.

Korea's export growth in July slowed down but was better than expected, with chip exports exceeding $40 billion supporting the trade surplus.

In terms of total export scale, July's $98.9 billion marked the second highest single-month figure in South Korea's history, following the historical record of $102.2 billion set in June.

Amazon has completed a $50 billion investment and holds a 5% stake in OpenAI; it has previously invested in Anthropic.

Amazon has completed its full investment of $50 billion in OpenAI, acquiring approximately 5% of the company and becoming one of the most important external shareholders of this artificial intelligence firm.

Record-breaking gamble! SpaceX (SPCX.US) short bets soar to $24.6 billion as the first financial report and the "double calamity" of a $100 billion lockup expiry are set to strike next week.

SpaceX's short interest skyrocketed to a record $24.6 billion, as the first earnings report and the dual impact of the $100 billion unlock loom.

During this earnings season, the U.S. stock market has seen profit growth that "exceeded expectations," with tech giants experiencing a dual increase in "capital expenditure and AI returns."

In the second quarter of the year, the U.S. stock market reported a series of positive earnings results, with corporate profits growing significantly beyond expectations. At the same time, hyperscalers, represented by large technology companies, continue to ramp up investments in AI infrastructure and are sending positive signals about the accelerated realization of returns on AI investments, providing fundamental support for the market.

The Russian Sukhoi Log gold mine reserves have garnered renewed attention and may reshape the global gold mine resource landscape.

On July 26, the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources confirmed that the Sukhoi Log gold mine, located in the Bodaibinsky District of Irkutsk Oblast in Eastern Siberia, has gold reserves exceeding 2,770 tons.

The IPO feast for AI unicorns has hit the pause button! OpenAI is reportedly delaying its listing until 2027, and SpaceX's plummet serves as the most glaring warning.

Reports indicate that after a rocky debut for SpaceX, OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO until 2027.

Inflation worries severely hit U.S. bonds: BlackRocks widowmaker ETF hits a 22-year low, and the market downturn leads to soaring hedging costs.

Inflation has been above target for five consecutive years, and Waller's commitment to combat inflation is being questioned by the market, leading to a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries.

Hedge funds are betting heavily on the rise of WTI oil prices at the fastest pace in four months, making U.S. crude oil the "last lifeline" for global supply.

Hedge funds have increased their long positions in U.S. oil at the fastest rate since March.

HK Bull/Bear Outstanding Qty Ratio(43:57) | August 1

As of August 1, the latest bull-bear ratio for the Hang Seng Index is 43:57.

Fed Chair Waller is considering reducing the number of monetary policy meetings or further adjusting the policy communication mechanism.

According to media reports on Friday citing informed sources, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller is considering reducing the number of routine annual monetary policy meetings as part of his push for reforms at the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 index faces a crucial battle at key technical levels! Intense competition between bulls and bears around the 7,500-point mark, with market breadth indicators emitting cautious signals.

After experiencing two consecutive days of intense fluctuations, both bulls and bears in the U.S. stock market are once again vying for control over the key technical levels of the S&P 500 index.

The AI competition among tech giants has entered a "differentiation phase." Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US), and Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) have gained market favor, while Meta (META.US) has faced investor skepticism.

As American tech giants successively release their earnings reports and maintain or raise their capital expenditure guidance, Wall Street is rapidly reassessing the winners and losers in the AI race.

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