GMT EIGHT - OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Interim report and overseas model double verification: AI computing power is booming, the computer sector is welcoming resonance of performance and inference.

The A-share computer interim report forecast is jointly verified with overseas models to iteratively validate the continued prosperity of the AI industry chain.

China Securities Co.,Ltd.: How is the market viewed after the huge technological seismic event?

The market turbulence pattern will continue, there is no need to worry excessively when the index falls.

CITIC SEC: Still bullish on US tech stocks, currently prefer the mid-to-back end of the overseas computing power chain.

Concerns and prospects of overseas AI narration from an economic perspective

CITIC SEC: Short-selling and pair trading coexist in Hong Kong stocks, while US stocks regain momentum in AI trading.

This week, the governor of the central bank Pan Gongsheng stated that the proportion of foreign reserves invested in Hong Kong would continue to increase, driving a significant rebound in Hong Kong stocks for the second consecutive week.

Quantitative strategies promote the K-shaped recovery? CITIC SEC: After the cooling down of the game, it is necessary to pay attention to the repair of some non-AI sectors.

Three narrative logics correspond to three layers of K-shaped differentiation, among which there is a reasonable differentiation stemming from differences in economic conditions, which is fairly common in the global market, but there are also additional impacts caused by emotions and financial factors.

After the Shanghai Composite Index falls below 4000 points, what lies ahead? Xingzheng Strategy: Keep a close eye on the July financial report of TSMC and North American cloud manufacturers' Capex.

With the recent key changes and positive signals in overseas liquidity and sentiment drag, as well as the global AI industry narrative, both of which were core factors influencing market adjustments before, there is no need to overly worry about the subsequent market. The momentum for the next round of growth is accumulating and brewing in the fluctuation.

GF SEC: How to view the adjustment of technology stocks?

How do you view the magnitude and timing of the current adjustment in the AI sector? This article further discusses this topic.

The White House is applying strong pressure on Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) in order to support Intel Corporation (INTC.US), using all means possible.

According to reports, the Trump administration has placed Intel's revival as a strategic priority. During Apple's search for an exemption from semiconductor tariffs, Trump and Commerce Secretary directly pressured Apple's Cook to use Intel's manufacturing services.

Industry professionals predict that the price of HBM4 may double next year, driven by the AI trend.

DigiTimes reports that due to the surge in demand for AI and structural capacity bottlenecks, the price of the next generation of HBM4 may increase from $2 per kilobit to $4-5 or more in the second half of 2026.

Sinolink: What practical constraints does AI penetration face from a business perspective?

The crucial turning point in technological revolution is often not a moment of "stronger technology", but when society and enterprises find new organizational forms that are compatible with the new technology.

Institutional Site Visit: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) won the current CPO, with Samsung betting on the next round.

TSMC commercialized the CPO products of Broadcom and Nvidias switches, the first in the industry. Samsung, on the other hand, took a different approach by integrating HBM, logic chips, and silicon photonic chips into the same 2.xD package, targeting the optical I/O track of AI computing packaging. Samsung's "triple integration" vertical integration is a potential advantage, but yield challenges and commercialization timelines remain the biggest variables. Only when orders are finalized can the success or failure be truly determined.

Micron (MU.US) CEO: Severe shortage of memory, demand like never before.

"Although we have made every effort to speed up local and global supply, demand continues to grow, and we do not see when supply will be able to catch up with demand," the CEO stated.

Bank of America's Hartnett: Japanese bank stocks are "a global leading indicator of risk aversion," with "four major contrarian trading opportunities" in the second half of the year.

Bank of America strategist Hartnett warned that there is a consensus of "four nots" in the current market: the US economy will not land, the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates, AI capital spending will not decrease, and the US Democratic Party will not sweep the midterm elections. This rare all-encompassing optimism itself poses the greatest risk, as any consensus failing to materialize will trigger a significant repricing. He proposed four types of contrarian trading strategies and considers Japanese bank stocks as a warning indicator of global risk appetite.

EB Securities: May express delivery volume growth stabilizes, with steady prices rising amid anti-"996" trend.

The industry believes that online e-commerce consumer demand remains active, stabilizing the volume growth rate, coupled with the "national subsidy" policy driving stable operation of the consumer market, expansion of rural and other lower-tier markets, and other factors leading to steady growth in the volume of express deliveries in the express delivery industry.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) buys 5 million optical modules in a year, but dismantles them by hand.

Behind the three forms is the same physical fact: electricity can no longer run in copper wires, and light must get closer and closer to the chip.

China Securities Co., Ltd.: The global prosperity cycle of semiconductor equipment continues to be confirmed, and the trend of simultaneous increase in quantity and price of PCB drill needles is clear.

Suggested Focus: 1) Progress in the domestic substitution and breakthrough of categories with low domestication rates; 2) The rapid increase in the performance of listed companies driven by the smooth progress of domestication in categories that are progressing smoothly.

Shenwan Hongyuan Group Strategy: Adjustments Are Coming to an End, a New Round of Slow Growth Awaits.

After breaking the inertia of funds, we believe that a new round of increase still needs to be carefully considered. Now, it is correct to "wait for new catalysis to make decisions".

In July 2026, the box office revenue for films exceeded 1 billion.

As of July 11th, the total box office revenue for July 2026 (including presales) has surpassed 1 billion.

The global market is entering a "summer of turmoil": beware of changes in the Federal Reserve, the yen crisis, and the challenges of earnings season.

The global financial markets may seem calm, but there are hidden currents: the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Powell, reducing forward guidance has increased policy uncertainty, causing the yen to fall below the 162 mark and triggering a crisis of arbitrage liquidation. The fragility index of UBS soared to a high of 0.9, with individual stock volatility exceeding the index by three times. In the midst of low summer liquidity, if the high growth expectations of 24% for second quarter earnings reports in the US stock market are not met, it could trigger a dramatic index-level pullback.

Cui Dongshu: The growth rate of car manufacturers' sales in June remained relatively stable, but the trend of new energy vehicles is not strong.

The trend of new energy vehicles in June is not strong, the export market for cars continues to strengthen, manufacturer inventories have slightly decreased, and there is no pressure on the industry to reduce inventory.

Industry professionals: HBM4 prices may double next year.

Industry insiders say that the price of the next generation of HBM4 may skyrocket from around $2 per gigabit in the second half of 2026 to $4 to $5 or even higher.

New stock news | Xin Tianxia submitted an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Code-based flash memory chip revenue ranks top five globally.

According to the disclosure by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 10th, Xintianxia Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Xintianxia") has submitted an application for listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Guangfa Securities and Zhongxin Securities as its joint sponsors.

New stock news | Xintianxia submits a second application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

According to the disclosure by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 10, ZD Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as ZD Technology) has submitted an application for listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Guangfa Securities and CITIC Securities as its joint sponsors.

Holding onto AI tightly while staying wary of the Iranian surprise attacks! Wall Street divided as dreams of the 2000 Internet bubble era resurface.

Barclays Bank points out that the correlation between major asset classes is currently in the historical range of about the 93rd percentile, which means that the linkage between crude oil, bonds, and currencies is higher than usual. At the same time, the correlation between stocks has dropped to the lowest level in over a decade. Although individual stocks may still move in the same direction as the overall asset market, the differentiation between winners and losers in the AI sector is becoming more important to investors, leading to an increasing divergence between index component stocks.

After rising 25% in one month, the American biopharmaceutical sector suffered a heavy blow on Friday.

The U.S. biopharmaceutical sector saw a steep drop as profits were concentrated and closed out, with the high beta representative ETF (XBI) plummeting 4% in a single day. Stocks like Moderna and ImmunityBio, which had seen significant gains earlier in the year, retreated by 8%-11% despite no negative fundamental news. Funds are now shifting from high-risk small-cap stocks to strong defensive large-cap pharmaceutical companies in a structural rotation across sectors.

When the US stock market is at its "extremely fragile" state, the earnings season begins.

The surface of the US stock market index appears calm (with low VIX), but the UBS market fragility index has soared to a historical high of 0.9. As the second quarter earnings expectations surged by 24% to kick off the "high expectations" earnings season, internal market pressures are rapidly building up: single stock volatility has exceeded the index by three times, bond yields are approaching 4.6%, and rising oil prices (Brent crude nearing $80) are threatening inflation and European stock markets.

OpenAI's head of security system resigns, adding another member to the wave of senior departures.

According to reports, Johannes Heinke, the head of security at OpenAI, informed his colleagues this week that he will be leaving the leading artificial intelligence (AI) company. This is the latest in a series of recent departures of key executives at OpenAI, which is part of a security team restructuring in response to the increasing pace of model iteration.

Nuclear energy service company Holtec (HNUC.US) joins the industry IPO trend and seizes the opportunity in the AI data center power shortage.

Holtec Nuclear Corp. has submitted an initial public offering (IPO) application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, becoming the latest company in the nuclear energy sector to attempt to go public by leveraging the growing power demand from data centers.

Completely torn apart! Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) sues OpenAI for stealing trade secrets and demands the destruction of all infringing materials.

Apple recently filed a lawsuit against OpenAI for alleged misappropriation of trade secrets, accusing the AI startup and its hardware chief of colluding to systematically steal information about Apple's unreleased products.

Farewell to the cycle of fate! SK Hynix (SKHY.US) CEO warns that the shortage of storage chips will continue for the next decade. The group chairman introduces a new concept of "memory as a service".

Against the backdrop of a continuous surge in demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computing power, global storage chip giant SK Hynix has just completed a historic U.S. listing. At the same time, senior executives of the company have successively made heavyweight statements, not only predicting the most severe supply shortage in industry history in 2027, but also revealing that the company is brewing a "memory as a service" business model that will disrupt traditional hardware sales.

Morgan Stanley pours cold water: Chip manufacturers under pricing pressure, AI capital expenditures starting to slow down, US semiconductor stocks "clearly overbought"

The Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management stated that large-scale cloud service providers are accelerating the development of self-made low-cost chips, eroding the pricing power of chip manufacturers; enterprises have started discussing the pace and return on investment of AI investments, and are currently at the early stage of slowing down the growth rate of AI capital expenditure; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's price-earnings ratio has more than tripled since 2022, and the semiconductor sector has shown "clear signs of being overbought".

Overnight US stocks | Three major indexes closed higher, the S&P 500 approaching a historic high, SK Hynix ADR rose nearly 13% on its first day of listing.

On Friday, the U.S. stock market continued its previous day's gains, with the S&P 500 index approaching a historic high. SK Hynix completed the largest foreign company IPO in U.S. history, with its stock rising nearly 13% on its first day of trading.

Does AI exacerbate U.S. inflation? Goldman Sachs: Memory, electricity and software price increases may raise core PCE by 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs' latest calculations show that the triple impact of the skyrocketing prices of AI-driven memory, software price increases, and rising electricity costs has pushed up the core PCE in the United States by more than 0.2 percentage points. It is expected that this contribution will rise to 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year. This estimate does not fully reflect all kinds of spillover effects, and the actual impact may be even greater. Most Federal Reserve officials believe that in certain scenarios, strong demand related to AI may lead to sustained high inflation.

HK Bull/Bear Outstanding Qty Ratio(47:53) | July 11th

As of July 11, the latest bull-bear street ratio of the Hang Seng Index is 47:53.

Bullish on AI-driven storage demand continues to grow Wells Fargo & Company raises target price for Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX.US) and Western Digital Corporation (WDC.US)

Industrial Bank has raised Seagate Technology's rating from "hold" to "buy" and raised its target price from $900 to $1100; at the same time, it has maintained a "buy" rating on Western Digital and raised its target price from $575 to $730.

US Stock Market Move | Storage chip concept stocks rose during the trading session Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX.US) up more than 3%

On Friday, shares of storage chip concept stocks rose sharply during trading, with Seagate Technology (STX.US) up over 3% and SanDisk (SNDK.US) up over 2%.

US Stock Market Move | South Korean semiconductor giant SK Hynix (SKHYV.US) debuts on the US stock market, opening with a 14% increase.

On the first day of its listing on the US stock market, South Korean semiconductor giant SK Hynix saw its stock price rise by 14%.

Outlook for quantum computing and AI business looks promising, Susquehanna initiates IBM (IBM.US) with a "hold" rating.

Investment bank Susquehanna initiates coverage on IBM for the first time, giving it a "hold" rating and setting a target price of $303.

US Stock Market Move | SpaceX (SPCX.US) falls 3%, market value drops below 2 trillion US dollars.

On Friday, SpaceX fell 3% to $147.56, with a market value dropping below $2 trillion. Its cumulative decline this week is nearly 9%.

Trump says he will continue to negotiate with Iran, but the ceasefire agreement has ended.

President Trump stated on Friday that the United States will continue negotiations with Iran, but the ceasefire agreement previously reached between the two parties has ended.

Morgan Stanley warns that the valuation of the semiconductor sector is overheated. Tech giants developing their own chips may weaken the industry's pricing power.

Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shalett stated that as more and more evidence shows that the pricing power of chip manufacturers is being challenged, investors should remain cautious about the semiconductor sector.

US Stock Market Move | Concept stocks related to optical communication generally fell, with Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI.US) dropping more than 6%.

On Friday, stocks related to the concept of optical communication generally fell, with Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI.US) dropping more than 6%.

US Stock Market Move | Chip stocks fluctuate, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) up more than 2%

Chip stocks are mixed, with Nvidia up more than 2%.

US stock market's most steadfast buyers lose confidence! Retail investors' net purchases plunge to the lowest level since the epidemic, rejecting "blindly buying the market" in favor of "selecting stocks based on stories"

Retail investors chase hot trends but refuse to bet on the S&P 500 index.

US Stock Market Move | Circle (CRCL.US) surged more than 8% and was approved to establish the national trust bank Circle National Trust.

On Friday, Circle (CRCL.US) rose more than 15% in early trading. As of the time of this writing, it is up more than 8%, trading at $68.33.

Wall Street locks in EchoStar Corporation Class A (SATS.US) as SpaceX's best alternative! Citigroup and Deutsche Bank both call for a buy.

Wall Street analysts say that, compared to directly buying SpaceX stocks, investing indirectly through Starlink Communications is actually a lower cost way to invest in this space technology company.

US Stock Market Move | Meta (META.US) rose by more than 6%, with mining cost much lower than market expectations.

On Friday, Meta (META.US) rose more than 6% to $671.24.

US stock market opening: three major stock indexes rise and fall unevenly.

The Dow rose 0.27%, the S&P 500 rose 0.07%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.04%. Shopify rose 4.55%, Coinbase Global rose 4.51%, SanDisk fell 3.57%, Intel fell 3.09%. As for the "Big Seven": Meta Platforms rose 4.81%, Amazon rose 1.50%, Microsoft rose 0.98%, Tesla rose 0.77%, Nvidia rose 0.27%, Apple fell 0.65%, Google fell 0.91%.

Borrowing 350 billion yuan in five years to bet on AI! The five major tech giants in the US are making history, or are they repeating Intel's mistakes?

In order to seize the high ground of artificial intelligence data centers, the five major technology giants in the United States have doubled their debt size in the past five years, paving the way for what they call "economic transformation" through large-scale borrowing.

Boeing Company (BA.US) sees new progress in recovery: Fourth 737 MAX production line in operation, MAX 7 certification imminent.

Boeing (BA.US) officially launched its fourth 737 Max assembly line near Seattle on Friday.

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