80 million barrels of crude oil stranded at sea: Iran's zero oil exports shock the global energy market.

According to a report released by the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) organization, Iran attempted last month to break through the US Navy blockade to export energy, but was unsuccessful, with about 80 million barrels of oil and petrochemical products stranded in the waters behind the blockade line. In May, no crude oil exports from Iran were able to pass through the US-imposed maritime blockade, as reported by UANI. However, the report pointed out that Iran did manage to successfully ship four batches of naphtha, totaling 2 million barrels, and a small amount of liquefied petroleum gas. In contrast, before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine erupted in February of this year, Iran's oil and fuel exports had reached over 59 million barrels. UANI's criteria for statistics is whether ships cross the blockade line established by the US stretching from the easternmost point of Oman to the Iran-Pakistan border, rather than just passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's inability to export oil highlights the effectiveness of the US blockade operation. Over the years, Iran has relied on a substantial network of ships, using covert means to transport crude oil and petroleum products mainly to other markets. However, according to a message posted on social media by US Central Command on Tuesday, the maritime blockade operation launched on April 13th has successfully paralyzed six commercial ships and forced 122 ships to change course. UANI stated in the report, "Iran's once formidable counter-sanctions shipping network has been weakened to the point where only limited, high-risk sailings are possible, with the majority of oil remaining idle at sea." The organization also stated that currently about 69 different-sized oil tankers, carrying approximately 80 million barrels of Iranian oil and petrochemical products, are stranded in the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman inside the blockade line. A large number of ships are concentrated near Khark Island Iran's main crude oil export point and near the Iranian port of Chabahar close to the Pakistan border. According to UANI's data, Iran exported about 30 million barrels of oil and fuel in April of this year, and 36 million barrels in March. Impact of 80 million barrels on the market While the 80 million barrels of oil stranded at sea may not equal global daily consumption, in the highly balanced oil market, prices are determined by "marginal variables." Iran previously stably outputted around 2 million barrels of crude oil per day, and the cessation of exports in May means that the global spot market has lost 200,000 barrels of liquidity per day. This has forced Asian independent refineries that heavily relied on cheap Iranian crude oil to enter the international market to purchase alternative sources, directly leading to higher spot differentials in benchmark oil prices like Brent crude, and transmitting severe input inflation pressure to major consumption countries. Stranded 69 oil tankers may trigger "passive oil well closure" The current situation of 69 giant oil tankers carrying 80 million barrels of crude oil floating in the Persian Gulf not only brings about high demurrage costs, but also pushes Iran's "floating storage" to its physical limits. As crude oil cannot be shipped out, once domestic onshore and offshore storage reaches full capacity, Iran will have to resort to the most extreme measure forcibly shutting down upstream oil fields. Given the changes in formation pressure and technical characteristics, once oil fields are forced to shut down due to capacity crises, the future economic and technical costs of resuming production will rise exponentially, undoubtedly uprooting Iran's economic lifeline. Surge in geopolitical risk premium and maritime risk premium with 69 oil tankers stranded If 69 oil tankers carrying 80 million barrels of crude oil cannot leave, it ultimately means that the US Central Command has completely paralyzed the underground grey industry chain composed of "ghost fleets," secret at-sea transfers (STS), and offshore money laundering networks. In the context of escalating US-Iran tensions, the concentration of 69 oil tankers loaded with crude oil in sensitive maritime areas like Khark Island is essentially a huge "marine powder keg." Any drone misfire or accidental fire at sea could instantaneously ignite a maritime security crisis in the Persian Gulf, and this high geopolitical risk premium is what has kept global energy traders and insurance giants on high alert, acting as an invisible driver in recent events.