State Council Meeting Issues Major Deployment, New Opportunities for the Electric Vehicle Battery Recycling Industry

On February 21, the State Council executive meeting reviewed and approved the "Action Plan for Improving the Recycling and Utilization System of New Energy Vehicle Power Batteries." The meeting pointed out that currently, the phase of mass retirement of automotive power batteries has begun in China, and it is particularly important to enhance the level of recycling and utilization of power batteries. Industry insiders believe that this move is a significant boon for the new energy vehicle and battery recycling industries, indicating that companies such as Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ), Gotion High-tech (002074.SZ), ENVISION GREEN (01783), which are expanding into the recycling business, are expected to seize new growth opportunities in the huge market. The State Council executive meeting emphasized the need to strengthen full-chain management, focus on clearing obstacles, and establish a standardized, safe, and efficient recycling and utilization system. It also called for the use of digital technology to monitor the entire life cycle of power batteries, from production, sales, dismantling, to utilization, making the process traceable. The meeting stressed the importance of regulating recycling and utilization through legal means, developing and improving relevant administrative regulations, and enhancing supervision and management. It also urged the acceleration of the formulation and revision of standards related to green design of power batteries and carbon footprint accounting of products to promote recycling and utilization through standards. According to the forecast of the China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, China's power battery installed capacity will exceed 1300GW by 2030. In the future, China will face a large-scale retirement of power batteries, with enormous potential in the power battery recycling market. The market for phased utilization is expected to achieve rapid growth after 2025. Wang Xiaokang, President of the China Industrial Energy Conservation and Clean Production Association, stated that by 2030, China's accumulated retirement volume of power and energy storage batteries will exceed 3 million tons. The market size of China's power battery recycling is estimated to exceed 140 billion, a growth of over 9 times compared to the actual market size in 2022, possibly even reaching 10 times. With the strong support of various relevant departments of the state, the energy battery recycling industry has made significant progress in recent years. For example, Contemporary Amperex Technology acquired Bampu Circulation in 2013, officially entering the battery recycling industry by manufacturing ternary cathode precursor materials using metal elements from recycled batteries. Its wholly-owned subsidiary Ningde Jiaocheng also includes a battery recycling system in its business operations. On September 28, 2024, under the leadership of Guoxuan Group, Tongling DeLi New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., invested a total of 5.2 billion yuan in the construction of a lithium battery comprehensive utilization and PACK industrialization project, planning to do it in two phases. Official data from Gotion High-tech shows that the company can process 50,000 tons of waste batteries and 10,000 tons of discarded pole pieces annually, reaching battery-grade phosphoric acid and lithium carbonate products. ENVISION GREEN recently announced a battery recycling cooperation agreement with Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary, Huayou Green Energy. According to the agreement, the two parties agreed to provide end customers with one-stop battery collection and disposal services based on the existing 31 service points in Europe. According to public information, ENVISION GREEN Group is currently building the first power battery processing facility in Hong Kong, and the project is expected to begin trial operation at the end of this year or early next year.
21/02/2025

Cui Dongshu: By the end of January 2025, the national passenger car inventory was 2.99 million units, a decrease of 60,000 units compared to the previous month.

The China Passenger Car Association's Cui Dongshu stated in an article that the passenger car market in 2024 is still in a strong destocking cycle. The proactive destocking phase that began at the beginning of the year continued until August, followed by a passive destocking phase from September to December. Even in January 2025, it is still considered a continuation of the 2024 pre-Chinese New Year period, therefore still part of the destocking process. With the anticipation of stimulus policies waning and new trade-in policies gradually being released, manufacturers approached the market cautiously in January, with both gasoline vehicles and new energy vehicles performing well. By the end of January 2025, the national passenger car inventory stood at 2.99 million units, a decrease of 60,000 units from the previous month and 380,000 units from January 2024. Currently, the uncertainty in the market before Chinese New Year has led to overall caution among manufacturers, with dealers hoping to reduce inventory before the holiday. Although inventory decreased in January, inventory days did not rise, mainly due to sales forecasts for February to April 2025 being lower than the average of January to March. The inventory at the end of January, combined with the estimated future sales for the next 3 months, suggests that there is inventory support for 58 days, a significant decrease compared to 65 days in January 2023 and 70 days in January 2024. While overall inventory pressure is not great, the inventory pressure for new energy vehicles has significantly increased. 1. Trends in narrow passenger car retail sales in recent years In 2024, passenger car retail sales in China showed a continuous upward trend from April to December, with a strong trend even in July. Due to factors such as the Chinese New Year, the national passenger car market saw 1.794 million units sold in January 2025, a 12% year-on-year decrease and a 32% decrease compared to the previous month. Retail sales in January were at a historical low, with a 32% decrease in growth rate compared to the previous month, second only to a 41% decrease in January 2023. The national passenger car market saw 1.794 million units sold in January 2025, a 12% year-on-year decrease and a 32% decrease compared to the previous month. Compared to previous strong trends in January, this year's retail sales are at a 10-year low, laying the foundation for a recovery in the used car market. 2. Trends in narrow passenger car wholesale in recent years In January, manufacturers sold 2.1 million passenger cars nationwide, unchanged year-on-year, and a 32% decrease compared to the previous month. Due to strong exports and less destocking in the distribution channel, the growth rate of passenger car wholesale in January exceeded retail sales by 12 percentage points. The U-shaped growth pattern in sales in 2024 was distinctive, showing a significant contrast from the trend in 2023. January's wholesale trend was strong, hitting a historical high, indicating that the industry's destocking cycle was coming to an end. 3. Trends in narrow passenger car production in recent years In January, 2.11 million passenger cars were produced, a 4% year-on-year increase but a 28% decrease compared to the previous month. January's production of passenger cars was only 19,000 units lower than the peak production in 2018. In January, 2.11 million passenger cars were produced, a 4% year-on-year increase. This strong performance in production in January, considering the Chinese New Year factor, made a significant contribution to local economic growth. 4. Trends in national passenger car industry inventory At the end of January 2025, the national passenger car inventory stood at 2.99 million units, a 60,000 unit decrease from the previous month, a decrease of 380,000 units from January 2024, and a decrease of 340,000 units from January 2023. The current transitional period in policy has led to overall caution among manufacturers, with high production before the Chinese New Year and moderate wholesale activities. 5. Tracking of national passenger car industry inventory The overall inventory remained relatively stable in 2024, reaching around 2.97 million units in October and increasing to 3.05 million in December, mainly due to a rebound in channel inventory. The total inventory of 2.99 million units in January this year is relatively stable, but significantly lower compared to the end of 2023, gradually easing the overall industry inventory pressure. Although manufacturer inventory levels remain high, with new vehicle increases expected after Chinese New Year, inventory is expected to increase slightly in the first quarter. 6. Forecast and satisfaction indices for the national passenger car market We evaluate monthly market performance based on the PMI index setting and evaluation results. According to a summary of forecasts by internal staff of manufacturers, our internal market forecasting team was 95% optimistic about December's pre-sales in January, with a satisfaction rating of 43% in early January. Our current optimism for the January 2025 market is 19%, which is a recent peak in market optimism. January sales were lower than retail, reflecting destocking features, with an assessment of 56%, which is optimistic. The expectation for February is also optimistic, with an assessment of 56%, compared to 33% in February 2024 and 46% in February 2023, indicating strong growth in the automotive market. Given the current inventory level of 2.99 million units and expectations for market growth in the coming months, the industry's inventory digestion pressure is not significant. Due to the current trend of price promotions leading to differentiation, car companies need to track policy environment and market changes, cautiously set production and sales pace, adjust inventory based on dealer inventory structure, and promptly clear historical inventory. 7. Characteristics of the national passenger car market inventory As the proportion of new energy vehicles increases and gasoline car sales decrease, the corresponding inventory pressure gradually decreases. Overall, the inventory of mainstream cars of independent and joint venture manufacturers in January 2025 was gradually reduced, indicating a strong risk awareness among car companies, with slightly improved inventory security, but an increase in luxury car inventory. From the perspective of inventory cycles, the inventory accumulation period started in December 2021, reaching a peak of 3.94 million units in November 2022, gradually decreasing to 3.25 million units in April 2023. The pressure significantly increased from May 2023 to November 2023, reaching 3.92 million units, followed by a strong destocking phase starting in December 2023, with a decrease to 3.21 million units in February 2024. Inventory slowly increased to 3.44 million units in June 2024 and then decreased to 2.97 million units in October. After inventory accumulation in November, it gradually decreased to 2.99 million in January 2025, but the pressure on inventory did not significantly ease due to a sharp decline in gasoline car sales. 8. Increase in days of national passenger car market inventory As the market recovery in 2023 proceeded as expected, the demand for replacement vehicles was strong.The inventory days have decreased significantly. The market retail performance in March 2024 after the Spring Festival is relatively weak. With the promotion of the central government's consumption policy and the active participation of various car shows and other marketing activities, the overall consumption in the autumn and winter market is relatively good.By the end of January 2025, the current inventory level combined with the future sales estimate indicates that the existing inventory can support sales for 58 days, a significant decrease compared to 65 days in January 2023 and 70 days in January 2024. Overall, the inventory pressure is not significant. 9. Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation's passenger car inventory is rebounding. Analyzing the inventory changes of companies that only produce new energy vehicles, at the beginning of 2023, the inventory was 200,000 units, maintaining a good level at the start of the year. Subsequently, there was a rapid growth in inventory, with the overall new energy inventory of pure new energy vehicle companies dropping to 390,000 units by the end of December 2023, further decreasing to 330,000 units in March 2024, peaking at 480,000 units in June 2024, rising to 660,000 units by December 2024, and reaching 670,000 units in January 2025. The inventory in new energy dealer channels saw a slight increase, with overall industry inventory pressure being significant.
21/02/2025

TechInsights: Huawei surpasses Samsung to lead the foldable smartphone market in Q4 2024.

According to TechInsights, in Q4 of 2024, the global shipment volume of foldable screen smartphones was 3.8 million, a decrease of 18% compared to the previous year. Huawei surpassed Samsung and became the market leader with a 31.2% market share, while Samsung dropped to second place with a market share of 26.7%. Honor remained stable in third place with a 14.3% shipment share, and Motorola maintained its fourth position with a 9.0% market share thanks to the success of its Razr series products. Although the base is small, in Q4 of 2024, the shipment volume of foldable screen smartphones in Central and Eastern Europe increased significantly by 67% year-on-year. In contrast, North America and the Asia Pacific region saw decreases of 30.9% and 15.2% respectively, while the Western Europe region experienced a sharp decline of 48.7% due to poor performance by Samsung. The Asia Pacific region dominated in shipment volume with a 73% share, with key players including Huawei, Honor, Samsung, and vivo. In this region, Huawei holds the top position with a 42.5% market share. Despite a slight decline in the North American market, Google's Pixel 9 Pro Fold saw significant growth. In Western Europe, despite the economic challenges, Samsung still leads the market, and Motorola's Razr 50 is also popular. Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East and Africa regions have lower shipment volumes, with Samsung being the main supplier, while Motorola is gradually expanding its market share.
21/02/2025

TrendForce Consulting: Estimated TV panel prices continue to rise, demand for display panels will strengthen.

Recently, TrendForce released the panel price data for February: in late February 2025, TV panel prices increased, while monitor and laptop panel prices remained stable. TrendForce predicts that in February, the price trend for TV panels will increase by $0.5 for 32-inch panels, $1 for 43-inch panels, remain the same for 50-inch panels, increase by $1 for 55-inch panels, increase by $2 for 65-inch panels, and increase by $3 for 75-inch panels. It is estimated that MNT panel demand will strengthen month by month. TV Entering February, the tariff issue has not had a significant impact for now, but rather the support of China's policy of old-for-new has continued to drive demand growth. Most brand customers are able to maintain strong purchasing power, and panel factories can continue to maintain high production levels to meet the growing demand. In general, TV panel demand remains stable, and prices are expected to continue to rise, especially in the case of good demand for large-sized TV panels, which may lead to some degree of crowding out of capacity and help push up the prices of medium and small-sized TV panels. It is estimated that in February, TV panel prices will increase by $0.5 for 32-inch panels, $1 for 43-inch panels, remain the same for 50-inch panels, increase by $1 for 55-inch panels, increase by $2 for 65-inch panels, and increase by $3 for 75-inch panels. Monitor Entering February, it is expected that MNT panel demand will strengthen month by month, despite being the traditional off-season, demand remains relatively good. As panel factories begin to feel the trend of price increases in TV panel demand, they are also starting to create an atmosphere for MNT panel price increases. Brand customers mostly remain in a wait-and-see attitude, and there may still be some negotiation on price trends between buyers and sellers. Currently, it is observed that in February, Open Cell panels are expected to reflect a slight increase of $0 to $0.1, while panel modules are expected to remain overall stable. Laptop Entering February, NB panel demand is still in the traditional off-season cycle, with an estimated overall demand decrease of 3.3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. This decrease is smaller than previously predicted, mainly because some brand customers are considering factors such as tariffs and supply chain transfers, and are increasing their purchasing power for panels. However, most panel factories are concerned that there may still be variables in future demand dynamics, so they are currently taking a cautious approach to panel prices and have not yet proposed any clear price increases. It is currently estimated that the price trend for NB panels in February will remain overall stable.
21/02/2025

TrendForce: It is expected that the global LED lighting market will resume positive growth and reach 566.26 billion US dollars by 2025.

TrendForce Consultancy reported that in 2024, the general LED lighting market was negatively affected by a downturn in major market demand, resulting in a decrease in market value and a overall decline in revenue for the top lighting companies in the industry. However, the LED smart lighting and niche LED plant lighting markets showed contrary growth trends. Looking ahead to 2025, with a slight improvement in the global economic situation, the demand for LED lighting products with high quality, healthy, comfortable lighting, and smart lighting features is expected to drive the recovery of market value. TrendForce predicts that the global LED lighting market will recover to $56.626 billion in 2025. The LED plant lighting market is expected to enter the next growth phase with the development of vertical farms. General Lighting Market In 2024, the Federal Reserve maintained a high interest rate, weakening market demand in China, the European economy continued to be weak due to geopolitical factors, and Japan was affected by the devaluation of the yen. The market size measured in US dollars also shrank. The main markets of the United States, Europe, and China, which have historically been the sources of demand for the lighting market, all faced pressure in 2024, affecting the overall LED lighting market value. However, with a slight improvement in market demand in Q4 2024, and accelerated penetration of LEDs, the decline in market value narrowed slightly. In 2024, the LED lighting market value decreased by 4.2% to $560.58 billion. Looking ahead to 2025, it is expected that with a slight improvement in the global economic situation, the construction industry closely related to the LED lighting industry will show signs of moderate recovery. New installations, renovations, and slow improvements in public infrastructure projects, including municipal sports fields, will contribute positively to the LED lighting industry, especially with the demand for replacement of existing products with LED in renovation projects, as well as the increasing demand for high-quality, healthy, comfortable lighting and smart lighting products. However, with adjustments in the global supply chain layout, global capacity remains in an expansion state, and competition is expected to intensify further. In some regions in 2025, LED lighting may be included in trade policy adjustments, and related measures may suppress demand for LED lighting. Overall, TrendForce estimates that the global LED lighting market will recover positively to $56.626 billion in 2025. From the perspective of LED lighting products, TrendForce believes that with increased investment in infrastructure, municipal sports, entertainment, and the increasing number of electric vehicle charging installations, there will be opportunities to redesign outdoor lighting, leading to continued growth in outdoor lighting products including LED street lights, LED floodlights, and LED parking lot lights. In the medium to long term, it is expected that after 2026, residential and non-residential construction markets, including healthcare, new manufacturing, and infrastructure sectors, and activities promoting sustainability such as carbon reduction, will drive significant growth in the LED lighting industry in 2026. It should be noted that changes in the international trade environment may have a certain impact on market demand. Therefore, TrendForce maintains a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the future market, estimating that the market size will reach $63.903 billion in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.7% from 2024 to 2029. Smart Lighting Market In 2024, due to the demand for energy-saving, LED lighting products that can achieve dimming and color adjustment, as well as those equipped with smart control systems, increased. TrendForce's latest data shows that the global smart lighting market size grew by 17.6% in 2024. In terms of application, the growth of the IoT lighting market is being driven by a decrease in the cost of smart lighting products and the increasing demand for energy efficiency in the professional lighting market (including commercial, outdoor, and industrial sectors), particularly in the outdoor and industrial lighting sectors. Looking ahead to 2025, an improvement in consumer market demand is expected, leading to a rebound in the smart home lighting market, with smart home lighting products covering various types such as light bulbs, filament lamps, and ceiling lamps. In addition, spotlights, downlights, and light strip products are gradually penetrating the smart home lighting market and experiencing rapid growth. Plant Lighting Market TrendForce's latest data shows that the global LED plant lighting market reached $1.315 billion in 2024, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year. According to TrendForce's analysis, this recovery is not just a simple downstream replenishment demand but a real demand recovery with a certain degree of sustainability. Looking ahead to 2025, driven by a new round of lighting replacements, an increase in demand is expected to be stimulated by a shift towards products with higher photosynthetic photon flux (PPF) and photosynthetic photon efficiency (PPE) as well as controllable multi-channel products. In addition, LEDs will continue to penetrate the market to replace traditional high-energy-consuming products. Regions such as Asia, the Middle East, North America, and Europe are making significant investments in vertical farming, cultivating a variety of species towards high-value crops, along with input from research institutions, is expected to drive rapid growth in the LED plant lighting market.
21/02/2025

Canalys: Global cloud service spending is expected to increase by 19% in 2025.

Canalys reports that in the fourth quarter of 2024, global spending on cloud infrastructure services increased by 20% year-on-year, reaching $86 billion. For the full year of 2024, cloud spending increased by 20% year-on-year, from $267.7 billion in 2023 to $321.3 billion in 2024. The rapid expansion of AI models has become the core driver of this growth, accelerating the popularity of cloud computing. By the second half of 2024, major cloud providers were reporting significant returns from AI investments, and the role of AI applications in driving overall cloud business was becoming increasingly prominent. As the competition in the AI market continues to heat up, cloud computing giants are increasing their investments in cloud and AI infrastructure to meet the growing demand. Canalys predicts that global spending on cloud infrastructure services will increase by another 19% in 2025. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the top three cloud service providersAmazon.com, Inc. Cloud Technologies (AWS), Microsoft Corporation Azure, and Alphabet Inc. Class C Cloudmaintained their market rankings unchanged, accounting for 64% of the global cloud spending market. Their total spending increased by 25% year-on-year. AWS, as the market leader, maintained a growth rate of 19% annually, staying consistent with the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the year-on-year growth rates of Microsoft Corporation Azure and Alphabet Inc. Class C Cloud slightly decreased compared to the previous quarter. The main reason was that the strong demand driven by AI exceeded supply capacity, leading to a shortage of computing resources, and cloud providers universally reported that the market supply-demand relationship was tightening. With AI technology constantly breaking through and widely applied, market demand is expected to grow exponentially. In order to seize the initiative, cloud computing giants are accelerating their global expansion, increasing investment in AI model training, deployment, and cloud-based AI applications. AWS's capital expenditure in the fourth quarter of 2024 reached $26.3 billion, with total spending expected to exceed $100 billion in 2025. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) had capital expenditures of $22.6 billion during the same period, and plans to invest around $80 billion in expanding data centers throughout the fiscal year. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) announced during its financial conference call that capital expenditures in 2025 are expected to reach $75 billion. "Cloud computing giants are ramping up their investments at an unprecedented pace." Canalys analyst Yi Zhang said, "Today's competition is no longer just about providing the most powerful AI services, but about how to ensure financial sustainability and long-term competitiveness while rapidly expanding." As the competition in AI intensifies, cloud computing giants are not only accelerating the development of in-house models but also quickly adapting to the impact of emerging AI innovators in the market. In January 2025, Chinese AI startup DeepSeek released the DeepSeek R1 model, which was hailed as an industry disruptor for its outstanding benchmark performance and high cost-effectiveness. DeepSeek R1 achieved near-GPT-4-level performance at extremely low cost, sparking discussions globally. Leading cloud service providers quickly responded by integrating DeepSeek R1 into their cloud platforms almost immediately to seize the market opportunity. "The rapid adoption of DeepSeek R1 by leading cloud providers highlights its disruptive impact, challenging industry standards with high cost-effectiveness," said Rachel Brindley, Senior Director at Canalys. "With the rapid evolution of AI technology, new models will continue to emerge, driving innovation and competition in the entire ecosystem. Cloud providers are also adjusting their strategies quickly to ensure customers can seamlessly access and integrate cutting-edge AI solutions." AWS continued to maintain its leading position in the global cloud market in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a market share of 33%, representing a 19% year-on-year growth. Annual revenue from cloud infrastructure exceeded $100 billion, continuing to lead the industry. At the AWS re:Invent conference in December 2024, AWS launched the new foundational model AWS Nova, which exclusively runs on Amazon Bedrock and offers three versions: Micro, Lite, and Pro. In January 2025, AWS further strengthened its AI ecosystem by announcing the integration of the latest DeepSeek R1 foundational model into Amazon Bedrock and Amazon SageMaker to meet the growing demand for high-performance AI models. Meanwhile, AWS accelerated infrastructure upgrades to accommodate the rapid development of AI and machine learning technologies, shortening the lifespan of some servers and network equipment from six to five years. AWS also continued to increase capital investments, recently announcing an investment of over $1 billion in Ohio and Georgia to build high-performance data centers focused on AI computing power. Microsoft Corporation Azure maintained its position as the second largest cloud service provider globally in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a market share of 20% and a year-on-year growth rate of 31%. Microsoft Corporation reported that 13% of Azure's growth came from AI services, with the AI services themselves experiencing a staggering 157% year-on-year growth, becoming a key driver of Azure's business growth. In December 2024, Azure announced the integration of OpenAI's latest model GPT-01 into Azure OpenAI Service. GPT-01 features multimodal design, supporting text and visual inputs. In January 2025, DeepSeek R1 officially landed on Azure AI Foundry and was included in the GitHub model directory, becoming part of Microsoft Corporation's vast AI ecosystem.This ecosystem now covers over 1800 AI models. In addition to deepening the layout of AI, Microsoft Corporation is also accelerating infrastructure expansion globally. In December 2024, the company announced the completion of the construction of three major Azure availability zones in Saudi Arabia, expected to be operational by 2026. In February 2025, Microsoft Corporation further increased its investment in the European market, announcing plans to invest approximately $700 million by June 2026 to expand Poland's large-scale cloud computing and AI infrastructure to meet the growing demand for computing power.Alphabet Inc. Class C is the third largest cloud service provider in the world, with a market share of 11%, a year-on-year growth of 32%. As of December 31, 2024, its revenue has surged to $93.2 billion, further increasing from the previous quarter's $86.8 billion. Additionally, the number of customers signing cloud service commitments for the first time in 2024 has doubled compared to 2023, indicating strong market demand. In the field of AI, Alphabet Inc. Class C continues to increase its investment. In December 2024, the company released its most advanced multimodal AI model Gemini 2.0, fully based on TPU computing. Two months later, the Gemini 2.0 series (including Gemini 2.0, Flash, Flash-Lite, and Pro) officially launched, fully integrated into the Gemini API, accessible to users through Google AI Studio and Vertex AI. At the same time, Alphabet Inc. Class C accelerates its global infrastructure expansion. In December 2024, the company announced the establishment of its 41st cloud region in Mexico, the third cloud region in Latin America following Chile and Brazil, further consolidating its market influence in the region.
21/02/2025
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