Weak US economy boosts rate cut expectations, how will it disturb the "stock-bond-foreign exchange" market?

date
08/08/2025
A report released on Tuesday showed that the growth of the US service sector remained stagnant in July, further exacerbating market concerns. Given the signs of weakening in the US economy, bond traders are increasing their bets on the Fed cutting interest rates this year. What do you think the path of the number and extent of Fed rate cuts will be this year? As expectations of rate cuts increase due to the weakness in the US economy, how will it disrupt the "stock-bond-forex" market? Wang Hao, Chief Analyst of Macro at Guotai Junan Securities, said that inflation pressure in the US is greater than economic stagnation pressure, and expectations for Fed rate cuts may narrow. The US stock market will still be dominated by recovery trading in the second half of the year, and be cautious of periodic disruptions. Short-term fluctuations in US bond yields may increase, and the central point may rise further in the second half of the year. Short-term disruptive factors may weaken the US dollar, and it is expected to regain strength in the second half of the year.