GMT EIGHT - Commercial - Global

Dollar Under Pressure: A Review of Recent Market Dynamics

U.S. Mortgage Market May Embrace Major Shift as FHFA Considers Crypto Assets as Collateral

Fed Chair Powell Highlights Inflation Risks from Tariffs and Signals Caution on Rate Cuts

EU Signals Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Goods Ahead of Trade Deadline

Fed Chair Powell Reiterates Wait-and-See Approach, Emphasizes Data-Driven Policy Adjustment

Ukraine’s Debt Talks Gain Momentum Amid IMF Review

Ukraine is preparing to resume debt restructuring talks with international creditors, focusing on its GDP-linked warrants. These negotiations will follow an upcoming IMF debt sustainability review, expected within two weeks, which could unlock a $500 million disbursement. A missed $600 million payment earlier this month on GDP-linked instruments has raised concerns, though Ukraine clarified it does not signal broader default. The government targets a restructuring agreement by mid-2025, aligning with IMF program milestones. Market volatility has increased around Ukrainian bonds, and the outcome of these talks may set a precedent for restructuring sovereign debt in post-conflict economies.

Markets Waver as Central Banks Split on Rates, Iran Threatens Hormuz Closure

Global markets are under pressure amid rising geopolitical risks, particularly Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, which briefly pushed Brent crude above $95 per barrel. Meanwhile, central banks are taking divergent policy paths: Switzerland and Norway cut rates, while the U.S. Federal Reserve held steady, citing inflation risks. Equity markets posted mixed results, with energy and defense stocks outperforming and tech leading losses. Safe-haven demand surged, boosting gold and U.S. Treasuries. Trade tensions are reemerging as the U.S. plans new tariffs on European goods, while talks to ease frictions remain uncertain. Investors are expected to stay cautious, with key upcoming drivers including U.S. inflation data, central bank testimony, and developments in the Israel-Iran conflict.

Vietnam’s Top Leader Readies Washington Visit as Tariff Deadline Looms

Vietnam’s Communist Party chief To Lam is planning a late-June trip to Washington to press U.S. leaders for a framework agreement on “reciprocal” tariffs - currently 46% on Vietnamese exports - before a July 8 deadline that could inflict heavy costs on the country’s trade-dependent economy.

The UK's Alternative Investment Market: Enduring Struggles and Future Prospects

The UK's AIM market, celebrating 30 years, faces significant struggles including declining company numbers, investor outflows, and reduced IHT relief. Macroeconomic factors, private market growth, and political shifts contribute to its contraction. Proposed reforms and government initiatives aim to revitalize AIM, but the increasing appeal and efficiency of private markets, particularly through new frameworks like PISCES, pose a substantial competitive threat, potentially undermining AIM's future relevance.

The Shifting Sands of Global Currency: Envisioning a New World Order

The global currency landscape is poised for change, moving beyond U.S. dollar dominance towards a multi-polar system with coexisting sovereign currencies. Driven by shifting confidence, geopolitical tensions, and central bank diversification into yuan and gold, this transition aims for greater resilience and stability. The euro is also gaining traction as a key reserve asset.

Global Markets Rattle as Israel–Iran Conflict Escalates, Oil Prices Soar

Global markets turned volatile following direct military conflict between Israel and Iran, with Brent crude briefly surging over 10% to exceed $95 per barrel and U.S. equities closing lower—Dow Jones down 1.8%, S&P 500 off 1.3%, and Nasdaq falling 1.1%.

Dollar’s Safe-Haven Bid Faces Policy Uncertainty

The U.S. dollar held firm amid rising Israel-Iran tensions and Brent crude near $75 per barrel, buoying demand for safe-haven currencies like the yen and franc while the Australian, New Zealand dollars and Norway's krone advanced; however, traders questioned the sustainability of the dollar's strength amid uncertain U.S. trade policy and looming trade-deal deadlines, all against the backdrop of this week's slate of interest-rate decisions—including the Federal Reserve's likely hold at 4.25–4.50%.

Fed Unlikely to Cut Rates in the Near Term? Wall Street Points to Broader Conditions and Middle East Tensions

The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, as officials remain cautious amid stable unemployment and uncertain inflation risks.

Israel Launches Strike on Iran; U.S. Markets, Gold, and Oil React Sharply

Israel launched a military strike on Iran in the early hours of June 12, targeting multiple nuclear and military facilities in an operation named “Lion’s Strength.” The escalation caused significant market volatility—Dow Jones futures fell 1.19%, Nasdaq futures dropped 1.55%, and spot gold surged to $3,400 per ounce.

Oracle's Ascent to Record Highs Driven by Strong Cloud and AI Performance

Oracle shares hit new highs due to strong Q4 results and increased demand for AI cloud services, significantly boosting Larry Ellison's net worth and prompting analyst upgrades. While substantial cloud infrastructure investments are planned, Oracle is viewed as a stable AI investment with a consistent valuation, despite potential short-term profit-taking.

The Electric Shift: 5 Million Barrels of Oil Saved Per Day by 2030

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that electric vehicles (EVs) will reduce global oil demand by 5 million barrels per day by 2030

Japan Navigates Economic Headwinds Amidst Tariff Concerns and Bond Market Shifts

Japan is navigating two major economic challenges: increasing foreign investment in long-term bonds and mitigating the impact of U.S. tariffs. While demand for Japanese government bonds is rising, uncertainty remains over adjustments to debt issuance.

China Confirms Agreement Framework Reached in Principle with the U.S.

China and the United States have reached a framework agreement in principle after two days of negotiations, according to Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang.

World Bank Significantly Downgrades Global Growth Forecast Amid Escalating Trade Tensions

World Bank lowered its 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 2.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from its earlier estimate, citing heightened trade tensions and elevated tariffs. The report warns of sluggish trade growth, projecting a 1.8% increase in 2025

Trump May Soften Stance? U.S. and Mexico Reportedly Nearing Steel Tariff Exemption Agreement

The United States and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement that would lift the 50% tariff on a quota of steel imports, reinstating a similar deal from Trump’s first term.

The Ruble's Remarkable Rise A "World's Strongest Gainer" Against the Dollar

The Russian ruble has made an impressive recovery in 2024, contrasting sharply with its sharp decline two years ago. This resurgence is primarily driven by capital controls, strict monetary policy, and a weakening U.S. dollar rather than an influx of foreign investment.

U.S. Debt Default “X-Date” Nearing? CBO Warns Government May Exhaust Funds by Mid-August

The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the federal government may exhaust its borrowing capacity between mid-August and the end of September 2025 if the debt ceiling remains unchanged.

Global Capital Repositions as China Assets Enter Revaluation Phase

Foreign capital is accelerating its return to China as global institutions revalue Chinese technology assets and raise economic forecasts, supported by policy easing and resilient domestic demand.

Overseas Frenzy: Pop Mart Faces Challenges Amid Rising Demand

Pop Mart has rapidly expanded its global presence, with its market capitalization reaching HKD 314.2 billion after a 900% share price surge in one year, driven by strong demand for its Labubu blind box products internationally.

“TACO” Trade Overextension? Wall Street Warns Rally Is Detached from Fundamentals

BCA and JPMorgan strategists jointly warn that the current market rebound is detached from fundamentals, with the S&P 500 recovering all 2025 losses but trading at a forward P/E of 22.

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