GMT EIGHT - Commercial - Global

What If Trump Fires Powell? Last Night, Financial Markets Rehearsed an “Earthquake Drill”

China and Australia Sign Memorandum of Understanding on the Implementation and Review of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement

Trump Announces 35% Tariff on Canadian Goods, Plans 15–20% Tariff on Most Trade Partners

Ministry of Commerce Launches Operation Targeting Strategic Mineral Smuggling, Responds to EU Criticism on Trade Issues

China Accelerates Power Market Reform Amid Rising Electricity Demand and AI Growth

Fed’s Waller Advocates July Rate Cut Amid Slowing Growth and Labor Market Risks

On July 18, 2025, Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the upcoming July 29–30 meeting, citing slowing growth and rising labor market risks. He downplayed the inflationary impact of new U.S. tariffs, calling them temporary, and advocated a shift to a more neutral policy stance.

Wall Street Hits Record Highs on Strong U.S. Economic Data

On July 18, 2025, U.S. stock markets hit record highs as strong retail sales, a sharp Philadelphia Fed Index rebound, and an upgraded GDP growth forecast (2.4%) boosted investor confidence. Robust earnings from United Airlines and PepsiCo also supported gains, especially in consumer and industrial sectors. Despite Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Powell, markets remained steady. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, while Treasury yields rose. Global markets followed suit, with TSMC shares climbing on strong AI chip demand. Focus now shifts to inflation data and Fed decisions in the coming weeks.

Indonesia and U.S. Strike Trade Deal Amid Rising Global Tensions

Indonesia has finalized the framework of a new trade agreement with the United States, granting tariff-free access to American goods while accepting a steep 19% duty on its exports to the U.S. The deal, reached under pressure from the Trump administration, reflects Washington’s broader strategy to reshape global supply chains and limit China’s trade influence—leaving Indonesia navigating a precarious economic balancing act.

Stablecoin Legislation Sparks Surge in Circle Internet Stock

Shares of Circle Internet Group surged after the U.S. Senate passed landmark stablecoin legislation, signaling growing regulatory clarity and investor confidence in compliant digital asset platforms. The unexpected upside highlights how policy developments can turbocharge crypto-related equities, but it also raises questions about long-term valuations and regulatory execution.

Oil Prices Rebound as Inventories Decline Amid Global Trade Optimism

Oil prices recovered due to a surprising drop in U.S. crude inventories and positive global trade developments. Key producers like the UAE, Iraq, and Brazil are aggressively expanding output, indicating a sustained commitment to oil supply despite environmental goals. This market dynamic reflects both immediate demand signals and long-term production strategies.

China's $42 Billion Stimulus: A Short-Term Boost with Long-Term Risks

China's extensive $42 billion consumer stimulus campaign is yielding immediate positive retail results, but it faces long-term risks due to "borrowed" future consumption, ongoing consumer confidence issues stemming from the real estate crisis, and the need for more sustainable economic reforms beyond temporary subsidies.

Market Jitters as ASML Lowers 2026 Growth Outlook Amid Tariff Concerns

European markets reacted cautiously as ASML, a leading chip equipment supplier, tempered its 2026 growth forecast due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, including tariff worries. Despite strong Q2 orders fueled by AI demand, broader inflation concerns and U.S. tariff discussions cast a shadow on investor sentiment, impacting technology and auto sectors.

Markets Slide as U.S. Tariff Threats on EU and Mexico Reignite Trade Tensions

Global markets declined on July 14, 2025, after President Trump announced a 30% tariff on most imports from the EU and Mexico, effective August 1. European futures fell ~0.7%, and U.S. futures dropped 0.4%, as investors grew concerned about renewed trade tensions and supply chain disruptions. Trump also criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, raising speculation about a possible leadership change and future rate cuts. While Asian markets remained steady, sentiment in Europe and the U.S. turned cautious, with analysts expecting rising volatility as the August deadline nears.

US Dollar's Plummet: A Consequence of Trump-Era Economic Policies

The US dollar's significant decline, the largest since 1973, is primarily attributed to President Trump's economic policies, which are prompting global investors to divest from dollar-denominated assets and eroding the currency's safe-haven status.

China's Economy Navigates Trade Tensions and Deflationary Headwinds

China's Q2 economy likely grew around 5.2% due to strong exports, but trade tensions and domestic deflation pose challenges. Weak consumer demand and bank struggles with consumer lending signal a potential slowdown in H2 2025. Policymakers face pressure for further stimulus, with the year's growth possibly falling short of the official target.

Bank of England Warns of Lingering Financial Stability Risks Amid Geopolitical Tensions

The Bank of England has issued a stark warning that global financial stability remains at risk due to intensifying geopolitical tensions and uneven economic adjustments to tighter monetary policies. While systemic vulnerabilities have not triggered a crisis, markets remain fragile and potentially susceptible to external shocks. As political fragmentation deepens and capital markets evolve, central banks and investors face growing pressure to reassess risk frameworks and financial resilience.

Oil Markets Brace for Turbulence: Tariff Threats and Swelling Inventories

Oil prices face headwinds from rising U.S. inventories and impending tariff expansions by President Trump. Industry reports show a substantial increase in U.S. crude stockpiles. Despite OPEC+'s planned output increases, market anxiety persists regarding oversupply and trade-related demand concerns, creating a cautious outlook for global oil markets.

Brazil’s Auto Industry Hits a Bump – June Sales and Production Both Decline

In June 2025, Brazil’s automotive sector recorded a simultaneous decline in both production and sales. With output dropping 6.5% to 200,764 units and new vehicle registrations down 5.7% to 212,932, the data reflects not just cyclical softness but also deeper structural pressures. These include surging Chinese EV imports, growing protectionist calls from domestic automakers, and ongoing uncertainty around tariff policy. This article explores the key drivers behind the downturn and the wider implications for Brazil’s industrial and climate strategy.

Copper and Industrial Metals Face Headwinds Amidst Renewed Trade Uncertainty

Global copper and industrial metals face renewed trade uncertainty from proposed US tariffs on BRICS-aligned nations, impacting prices. Despite this, copper retains support from geopolitical tensions and tight supply, though seasonal demand is weak. Long mine development timelines exacerbate supply constraints amidst growing electrification demand, setting the stage for continued price volatility with an underlying supportive bias.

Oil Markets in Flux: Navigating Supply Surges, Geopolitical Tensions, and Shifting Economic Tides

Oil prices are currently navigating a complex landscape. While expectations of increased supply from OPEC+ and a stronger dollar exert downward pressure, robust demand signals from China and ongoing geopolitical factors are providing some support. Inventory data presents a mixed picture, leading to price consolidation as markets await key economic indicators and OPEC+'s upcoming output decision.

Treasury Yields Fall as Fed Signals Dovish Turn, but Supply Risks Rise

U.S. Treasury yields fell in June as markets priced in expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts amid signs of cooling inflation. This sparked a bond rally, especially in long-dated securities, while also supporting equity markets.

Quiet Over-Achievers: Twilio and Snowflake Lead the Next Leg of the AI Rally

While Nvidia, Microsoft and other “household” AI names dominate the headlines, the best performance in the past twelve months has come from a pair of less celebrated enablers. Customer-engagement platform Twilio has surged roughly 115 percent and data-cloud specialist Snowflake about 64 percent, trouncing both the Nasdaq Composite and the broader cohort of semiconductor favourites.

Ukraine’s Debt Talks Gain Momentum Amid IMF Review

Ukraine is preparing to resume debt restructuring talks with international creditors, focusing on its GDP-linked warrants. These negotiations will follow an upcoming IMF debt sustainability review, expected within two weeks, which could unlock a $500 million disbursement. A missed $600 million payment earlier this month on GDP-linked instruments has raised concerns, though Ukraine clarified it does not signal broader default. The government targets a restructuring agreement by mid-2025, aligning with IMF program milestones. Market volatility has increased around Ukrainian bonds, and the outcome of these talks may set a precedent for restructuring sovereign debt in post-conflict economies.

Markets Waver as Central Banks Split on Rates, Iran Threatens Hormuz Closure

Global markets are under pressure amid rising geopolitical risks, particularly Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, which briefly pushed Brent crude above $95 per barrel. Meanwhile, central banks are taking divergent policy paths: Switzerland and Norway cut rates, while the U.S. Federal Reserve held steady, citing inflation risks. Equity markets posted mixed results, with energy and defense stocks outperforming and tech leading losses. Safe-haven demand surged, boosting gold and U.S. Treasuries. Trade tensions are reemerging as the U.S. plans new tariffs on European goods, while talks to ease frictions remain uncertain. Investors are expected to stay cautious, with key upcoming drivers including U.S. inflation data, central bank testimony, and developments in the Israel-Iran conflict.

Vietnam’s Top Leader Readies Washington Visit as Tariff Deadline Looms

Vietnam’s Communist Party chief To Lam is planning a late-June trip to Washington to press U.S. leaders for a framework agreement on “reciprocal” tariffs - currently 46% on Vietnamese exports - before a July 8 deadline that could inflict heavy costs on the country’s trade-dependent economy.

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