Oil Markets Hold Steady as Trump Extends Tariff Truce, Eyes Turn to Putin Meeting

Oil prices hovered in a narrow range on Tuesday amid quiet summer trading, with investors digesting geopolitical signals and tariff updates that could shape demand forecasts in the coming months.

The U.S. administration extended its temporary suspension of new tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days, pushing the expiration date to November 10. The extension, mirrored by a reciprocal move from Beijing, avoided the imposition of higher duties that had been scheduled to resume this week. Brent crude edged around $66.90 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $64.20. The market remained relatively stable, supported by easing fears of a full-blown trade conflict between the world’s top two economies.

The tariff pause came as welcome news to investors worried that strained U.S.-China relations would further dampen global trade and fuel demand. With the extension in place, hopes have resurfaced that a longer-term trade agreement could be reached, especially with both sides showing signs of warming diplomatic relations.

Markets also responded to signals from the U.S. labor market, where a slowdown in job growth has revived expectations of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. Lower rates typically boost economic activity, which can lift oil demand. Inflation data due later Tuesday may influence the Fed’s trajectory.

Adding to the market’s cautious tone is the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled for Friday in Alaska. With Trump pushing for a resolution to the war in Ukraine, the energy sector is watching closely. Should the talks lead to progress on peace negotiations, existing sanctions on Russian oil could potentially be reviewed. However, Trump has tempered expectations, stating publicly that a deal is not guaranteed.

Market participants are particularly focused on the U.S. warning to nations like China and India, who continue to buy Russian crude. The White House has threatened secondary sanctions on those buyers if Moscow fails to agree to terms. Analysts note that any breakthrough—or breakdown—in talks could trigger sharp movements in oil prices.

Despite the pause in trade tensions, Brent crude remains down by more than 8% this month, reflecting the broader concern of a potential oversupply in the latter half of the year. Trading volumes have also thinned, indicating that many market participants are waiting for more clarity.

Monthly reports from both OPEC and the U.S. Department of Energy are expected later this week and may provide further insight into global supply-demand balances.