Minsheng Securities: "Waiting" is still the best choice that the Federal Reserve has to make at the moment.

Minsheng Securities issued a research report stating that "misfortunes never come singly." The "mess" of tariffs has not been resolved yet, and the escalation of tensions in the Middle East causing a surge in oil prices has once again made the Federal Reserve "worried." At the June meeting, the Federal Reserve unsurprisingly maintained its consistent stance of "inaction," and it seems to want to prolong the time of "inaction." Faced with a series of supply shocks, the Federal Reserve needs more time to assess inflation risks, and considering the current uncertainty in trade, fiscal and other policies, "waiting" is still the best option for the Federal Reserve at the moment. The biggest focus of the U.S. economy in the second half of the year is that "hard" data needs to "catch up." Within the next quarter, the risk of "stagnation" will once again become dominant, which will be an important trigger for the turning point in the September interest rate meeting.