The five major challenges of the American economy: Can anxious consumers still "spend"?

On Friday, the holiday shopping season officially kicked off in the United States, but consumers are facing a series of economic worries - a cooling job market, stagnant wage growth, persistent high inflation, plus the chain reaction that the tariff policy is about to trigger. Against this backdrop, Black Friday will be a litmus test: will American consumers withstand the increasingly fierce economic headwinds to continue spending, or will this consumer-driven American economy begin to show signs of fatigue? Various signs indicate that this year's holiday shopping season will trend towards rationality. Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisor at market research firm Circana, said: "We expect this will not be a fervent and stimulating holiday season." Circana's data shows that although overall spending is expected to remain flat compared to last year, product sales may decline by as much as 2.5%. In other words: consumers will have to spend more money but will only be able to buy fewer things. Cohen said: "There won't be a lot of gifts under the Christmas tree this year." American retailers make 20% of their sales each year in November and December. This year, companies are competing for consumers who are increasingly price-sensitive and anxious. While people are still willing to spend - especially the top 10% of income earners - they are becoming very picky about where they spend. Some consumers say they plan to take advantage of Black Friday promotions not to splurge, but to stock up on necessities. At the same time, the tariff policy has made it difficult for some brands to offer the iconic deep discounts of Black Friday. And consumers who shop in physical stores may encounter longer lines and fewer sales staff, as seasonal retail hiring is expected to fall to the lowest level since 2009. However, promotional activities will not disappear completely. Walmart Inc. introduced a series of discounted items, including a 50% discount on Vizio TVs and a down jacket for only $10. Amazon.com, Inc. is offering up to 50% off beauty products from brands like Lancme and other luxury perfumes. Target Corporation is offering nearly 50% off soda makers, up to $200 off Apple Inc. products, and has $1 bow decorations, $5 Barbie fashion dolls, and $10 blankets. Home Depot, Inc. is offering nearly 50% off selected power tools and refrigerators. Kohl's Corp. plans to launch "unprecedented" holiday promotions to attract consumers under pressure. Best Buy Co., Inc. predicts that this year's Black Friday performance will be better than in previous years. Retailers are also trying to attract customers in other ways. Target Corporation will give free gift bags to the first 100 customers at each of its stores on Black Friday, and will offer exclusive "Wicked Witch" themed merchandise and peppermint hot chocolates at the Starbucks Corporation stores inside. Hollister, a subsidiary of Abercrombie & Fitch, will collaborate with Taco Bell to release limited edition products, available online on Cyber Monday. Walmart Inc. and Target Corporation are launching new artificial intelligence-driven shopping tools to help customers find discounted items more easily and complete purchases. Despite macroeconomic volatility, consumer spending in the United States remains relatively stable this year. At the beginning of the year, some consumers purchased large quantities of goods to avoid upcoming tariffs, driving sales growth. The strong stock market has also continued to encourage high-income groups to consume. Many retailers have reported that people's buying habits remain stable, and the impact of tariffs on prices is not as significant as originally anticipated. However, some pessimistic signals have recently emerged. Low-income consumers are cutting back on spending, with the November U.S. Consumer Confidence Index seeing the largest drop in seven months, and retail sales growth in September slowing down. Jessica Ramrez, Managing Director of Consumer Collective, a consumer consulting firm, said consumers may lean towards purchasing goods that could be affected by tariffs next year. She also pointed out that people are also buying things that can bring them joy during stressful times, such as keychains and other accessories to decorate handbags, as well as home decorations to brighten up living spaces. In recent years, as more consumers have started holiday shopping early through fall promotions and online events like Amazon.com, Inc. Prime Day, the "festive nature" of Black Friday has diminished. Michael Brown, Head of Retail for the Americas at strategic consulting firm Kearney, said that this trend is more pronounced this year due to concerns about tariffs, which could affect overall spending in the next two months.