Citi Research On China’s Humanoid Robot Industry: Broad Optimism, Exponential Growth Likely In 2026, At Least A Doubling

Citi’s Team Recently Conducted Research On China’s Humanoid Robot Industry Chain Covering Five Core Enterprises. The Findings Indicate A Clear Consensus That Global Humanoid Robot Production Will Enter An Exponential Growth Phase In 2026, Expected To At Least Double Compared With 2025.

According To Zhui Feng Trading Desk On November 26, Citi’s Latest Report Noted That As Global Leading Manufacturers And Domestic Manufacturers Accelerate Capacity Expansion, Global Humanoid Robot Production Capacity Is Expected To Surge In 2026. Revenues Of China’s Supply Chain Enterprises Are Projected To More Than Double. The Report Suggests That The Current Pullback In Sector Share Prices Offers Investors A Favorable Window For Positioning.

Citi’s Report Further Analyzes That Growth Is Primarily Driven By The Expansion Of Finished Product Capacity, Which Is Triggering A Surge In Demand For Upstream Key Components, Particularly In 3D Vision, Reducers, And Lead Screws. From Finished Product Manufacturing To Upstream Component Supply, Each Segment Of The Industry Chain Shows A Clear Growth Logic, Positioning Humanoid Robots As One Of The Most Certain Investment Tracks In The Technology Sector.

2026 As The Critical Point For Growth: This Research Covered Key Segments From 3D Vision And Finished Product Manufacturing To Core Components. Interviewed Companies Expressed Optimism About Industry Prospects, Expecting Exponential Revenue Growth In Humanoid Robot‑Related Businesses By 2026, Or At Least A Doubling.

This Consensus Reflects The Significantly Accelerating Pace Of The Global Humanoid Robot Industry. Leading Global Manufacturers Are Actively Building Supply Chain Systems And Substantially Raising Capacity Targets, While Domestic Finished Product Enterprises Are Steadily Advancing Commercialization, With Thousand‑Unit Orders Gradually Materializing. The Dual Push From Domestic And International Capacity Is Driving Upstream Core Component Demand Toward A Breakout.

For Investors, This Signals That The Humanoid Robot Industry Has Shifted From Technology Verification To Scale Mass Production, With The Countdown To Industry Transition Already Underway. As Capacity Is Released, Each Segment Of The Industry Chain Will Enter A Cycle Of Performance Realization.

Clear Growth Path In Core Segments And Defined Value Contribution - Citi’s Report States That China’s Humanoid Robot Industry Chain Has Matured And Will See Comprehensive Scaling And Revenue Breakouts From Core Components To Finished Products By 2026.

In 3D Vision, Chinese Enterprises Have Achieved Significant Breakthroughs, With Core Products Entering Recommendation Lists Of Leading International Manufacturers And Capturing About 70% Of Certain Niche Markets. Since Each Humanoid Robot Requires Four Sets Of 3D Vision Solutions, The Per‑Unit Value Reaches RMB 8,000, And By 2026, Related Enterprise Revenues Are Expected To Surpass RMB 100 Million To RMB 200 Million.

In Execution System Core Components, Reducers And Lead Screws Are Particularly Strong. Leading Enterprises Recorded Nearly RMB 100 Million In Related Revenue In The First Three Quarters Of 2025, Accounting For 20% Of Total Revenue, And Have Successfully Entered Global Mainstream Finished Product Supply Chains. Each Robot Requires 30–40 Lead Screws, Driving Per‑Unit Value To RMB 20,000.

Finished Product Manufacturing Is Advancing Rapidly. Leading Domestic Enterprises Reported Cumulative Orders Of RMB 800 Million In 2025, With Expected Shipments Rising From Around 500 Units In 2025 To Approximately 2,000 Units In 2026. Related Business Revenue Is Projected To Exceed 30% Of Total Revenue, Marking A Key Stage In Scaling Production.

Supply Chain Demand Surge: The Report Notes That The Global Humanoid Robot Industry Is Forming A Pattern Of “Global Leaders Leading + Domestic Acceleration,” Driving The Entire Industry Chain Into A Demand Boom.

Global Leading Manufacturers Are Accelerating Supply Chain Build‑Out And Raising Capacity Targets, Prompting Core Component Suppliers Such As Micro Ball Screws And Harmonic Reducers To Urgently Expand Production. Some Enterprises Must Lift Supporting Capacity To 3,000 Units Per Week By The First Quarter Of 2026, And Further To 5,000 Units Per Week By Year‑End.

Meanwhile, Domestic Finished Product Manufacturers Have Achieved Thousand‑Unit Orders, With Full‑Scale Ramp‑Up Expected In 2026, Driving Parallel Demand In 3D Vision, Motors, And Linear Actuators. This Dual Domestic‑International Expansion Pace Is Propelling Upstream Core Component Enterprises Into A Cycle Of Simultaneous Order And Capacity Growth, Making Them Core Beneficiaries Of This Industry Upswing.

Opportunities Amid Market Correction: Citi’s Report Highlights That The Current Correction In Related Company Share Prices Provides An Important Opportunity For Investors To Position.

From An Investment Logic Perspective, Finished Product Enterprises’ Core Competitiveness Lies In Commercialization Progress And Order Acquisition Capability, While Upstream Component Manufacturers Exhibit Stronger Profit Flexibility Due To “High Per‑Unit Value + Rigid Demand.” Enterprises That Have Successfully Entered Global Leading Finished Product Supply Chains Demonstrate More Pronounced Growth Certainty.

In The Long Term, The Industry’s Growth Space Is Broad. Over The Next Decade, The Global Humanoid Robot Market Size Is Expected To Exceed USD 100 Billion. With Technical Accumulation In Core Components And Mature Cost Control Capabilities, China’s Supply Chain Will Continue To Occupy Key Links In The Global Industry, Offering Investors Sustainable And Reliable Long‑Term Allocation Value.