iPhone 17 Momentum Pushes Apple to No 1 Spot in Global Shipments

Apple is poised to ship 243 million iPhones in 2025, ahead of Samsung’s 235 million units, according to Counterpoint Research. This marks the first time since 2010 that Apple will outsell Samsung on an annual basis. Apple’s market share is expected to reach 19.4 percent, compared with Samsung’s 18.7 percent.

The surge is largely driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series, which launched in September. In the U.S., sales of the iPhone 17 lineup — including the iPhone Air — were 12 percent higher than early sales of the iPhone 16 series. In China, sales were 18 percent higher over the same four-week period.

Analysts say the broader replacement cycle is now hitting an inflection point, as many consumers who bought phones during the pandemic are upgrading. This dynamic is expected to support shipments throughout the coming year.

Samsung, meanwhile, faces mounting pressure from Chinese smartphone makers in the low and mid-tier segments, which could limit its ability to reclaim the top position.

Looking long term, Counterpoint projects that Apple will maintain its lead in global smartphone shipments through 2029. One key factor is the massive second-hand market: 358 million refurbished iPhones were sold between 2023 and mid-2025, creating a large base of future upgraders.

Apple also benefited from reduced tariff impacts following a U.S.–China trade truce, a weaker dollar and stronger consumer sentiment. These conditions helped fuel demand in emerging markets.

Looking ahead, analysts expect Apple to release the iPhone 17e and its first foldable smartphone next year, along with a major Siri upgrade and an iPhone design overhaul in 2027. Expanded pricing tiers — especially the growing “e” series — are expected to strengthen Apple’s position in lower premium markets, which are projected to grow faster than the rest of the industry.

Counterpoint notes that growing preference for Apple’s ecosystem and a large base of older devices in need of replacement will help Apple maintain its lead through the end of the decade.