Before, when the currency rose, stocks rose even more. Now, when the currency falls, stocks plummet even more. The cycle of the cryptocurrency market has broken.
The latest statistical data shows that the transaction prices of 15 Bitcoin "vault" companies are lower than the net asset value of the cryptocurrencies they hold; among them, Strategy, which carries the title of "Bitcoin shadow stock," has fallen nearly 36% in November.
A new round of severe volatility in the cryptocurrency market is heavily weighing down on the stock prices of cryptocurrency "treasury" companies that continue to stockpile Bitcoin or other token assets on their balance sheets, exacerbating investors' concerns about the sustained pressure in this niche but rapidly growing field since the beginning of this year.
Latest statistics show that the trading prices of 15 Bitcoin "treasury" companies have significantly dropped below the net asset value of their cryptocurrency holdings; among them, the largest Bitcoin holding company known for its "Bitcoin whale" status and "Bitcoin shadow stock" title, Strategy Inc. (MSTR.US), saw its stock price drop by nearly 36% in November.
Throughout this year, under the supportive stance of US President Donald Trump towards cryptocurrencies and congressional support for the development of the cryptocurrency and stablecoin ecosystem, as well as the strong motivation for expansion driven by Michael Saylor's Strategy Inc. valuations soaring sky-high, a surge of companies have chosen to go public and invested their corporate cash into cryptocurrencies with expectations of appreciation.
The once-glowing aura of the "most successful investment bank in human financial history" is gradually fading.
With Bitcoin prices plummeting by over 30% from their all-time highs, falling below the crucial $90,000 mark and entering a bear market, Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy), a Bitcoin treasuring company once considered by Wall Street as the "most successful investment bank in human financial history," suffered even more severe price drops, plunging by over 60% since its peak in July. Currently, all treasury companies in the market have essentially been copying Strategy's long-term strategy of accumulating Bitcoin.
Since reaching a record high in November last year, Strategy's stock price has plunged by over 70%, shattering its premium status that had made it a favorite of momentum traders and crypto investors. Nevertheless, since Saylor's announcement of their first Bitcoin purchase in August 2020, the stock has still surged by over 1300% - outperforming all major stock indices during this period.
Under Michael Saylor's leadership, Strategy Inc. began investing almost all of its corporate cash into Bitcoin in 2020, and since then, Strategy's stock price has risen by around 1300%. During the same period, Bitcoin prices have surged by approximately 700%, making Strategy's stock vastly outperform Bitcoin and a number of benchmark indices, deserving the title of the "most successful investment bank in human financial history." However, with the possibility of the company being removed from the MSCI and Nasdaq 100 indices, this title may become a thing of the past and eventually be sealed in history.
The wave of cryptocurrency sell-offs has also spread to the company's newer financing tools. Its perpetual preferred shares - a cornerstone tool of Saylor's recent strategy, have seen significant price drops.
These financing pressures highlight to what extent Strategy's business model relies on the cryptocurrency investment frenzy and the confidence of retail investors, and how quickly this frenzy and confidence can disintegrate. Meanwhile, the indices have long played a silent role as an engine in modern markets, guiding trillions of dollars of ETF and mutual fund funds into the market, providing a hidden tailwind drive for trading, and sending credibility signals to large asset allocators. However, once the narrative breaks, similar ETF amplification mechanisms will also amplify the ebbing effects.
As mNAV plummets, is the Bitcoin treasury model unsustainable?
However, recent strong concerns about a potential artificial intelligence bubble bursting and uncertainties in financial markets about the Fed's future rate reduction path have severely hit tech stocks and other risk assets like cryptocurrencies in recent times, causing Bitcoin to plummet to its lowest level since April this month, and plunging many such "digital asset treasury" (DAT) company stock prices into intense volatility.
According to data from The Block, as of the end of this week, at least 15 Bitcoin treasury companies have stock prices lower than the net asset value (NAV) of their cryptocurrency holdings.
Strategy has long funded itself by issuing stocks and convertible bonds, then buying more Bitcoin; when the stock price is higher than its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV), new equity financing often has a thickening effect on each BTC possessed by the shareholders, making the stock a "recursive leveraged long position on BTC." In other words: it's more "like a call option on BTC" than holding directly. This is the basic logic of the premium.
However, with the total market value of the cryptocurrency market evaporating over $1 trillion in November, and Strategy's mNAV - the ratio of enterprise value to Bitcoin holdings - has dropped to just slightly above 1.1. This means that this cycle is no longer operating as it used to, and the core indicator supporting Strategy's stock price surge - mNAV - has even become a drag.
Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank previously wrote in a report in September that with DAT holdings accounting for 4% of all Bitcoin, approximately 3.1% of all Ethereum, and 0.8% of all Solana cryptocurrency, their fate could have a significant impact on all cryptocurrency prices, and added that they expect consolidation in this sector.
Executives of DAT companies have recently stated that their success stems from their ability to make smart investment decisions, and many companies are also exploring new revenue streams.
Below is an overview of some of the most popular and widely-watched DAT companies by investors and on Wall Street performance this year.
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