Overnight US stocks | Three major indexes closed higher, Williams implies that there is still a possibility of a rate cut in December.

On Friday, the three major indices closed higher. New York Fed President Williams hinted that there is still a possibility of a rate cut in December, raising traders' bets on the Fed implementing the third rate cut of the year next month. Williams said, "I believe monetary policy is at a modestly restrictive level, although the degree of restriction compared to our recent actions has weakened. Therefore, I still believe there is room for further adjustments in the federal funds rate target range in the near term to bring the policy stance closer to the neutral range, thus maintaining a balance between our dual objectives." [US Stocks] At the close, the Dow rose 493.15 points, up 1.08%, closing at 46245.41 points; the Nasdaq rose 195.03 points, up 0.88%, closing at 22273.08 points; the S&P 500 rose 64.23 points, up 0.98%, closing at 6602.99 points. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) fell 0.97%, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) fell 1.05%, Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG.US, GOOGL.US) rose by over 3%, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) rose 1.97%. This week's US stock market has been volatile, with all three major indices recording declines: the Dow fell by 1.91%, the S&P 500 fell by 1.95%. The Nasdaq fell by 2.74%, marking a third consecutive week of declines. [European Stocks] The German DAX30 index fell by 193.33 points, down 0.83%, closing at 23115.13 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 15.85 points, up 0.17%, closing at 9543.50 points; the French CAC40 index rose by 1.58 points, up 0.02%, closing at 7982.65 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 52.72 points, down 0.95%, closing at 5517.20 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index fell by 186.05 points, down 1.16%, closing at 15826.95 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index fell by 247.64 points, down 0.58%, closing at 42670.00 points. [Crude Oil] The January WTI contract fell by about 1.6%, closing at around $58 per barrel, marking the fourth decline in the past five trading days. Brent January futures fell by 1.3%, settling at $62.56 per barrel. [Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin fell by over 2.5%, closing at $84297.2; Ethereum fell by over 3.8%, closing at $2722.16. [Precious Metals] Spot gold fell by 0.26%, closing at $4066.21 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 0.44% this week, trading in the range of $4132.86-3998.08 per ounce, showing an overall W-shaped trend. COMEX gold futures rose by 0.10%, closing at $4064.20 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 0.73%, bouncing from $3997.40 to $4134.30 per ounce. [Macro News] The US October CPI report has been canceled, and the November report will be released on December 18. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has canceled its October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due to the government shutdown, as it was unable to collect some data. The agency stated that it could obtain most non-survey data for this month and will release the October numbers in the November CPI report "as feasible." However, the November report will not include the month-over-month percentage changes of those items missing October data. The November CPI report will now be released on December 18. It is worth noting that the results of the December FOMC meeting will be announced on December 11, and the previously rescheduled November nonfarm employment report will now be released on December 16, meaning Fed officials won't have crucial "November CPI report + nonfarm employment report" before the interest rate meeting. Fed's December interest rate cut vote in "stalemate" Cook, pressured by Trump, may be a key vote. Institutional analyst Neil Irwin said the Fed is currently deeply divided on whether to cut interest rates next month, and one possible outcome of the vote would create a surprising irony. If Chairman Powell, Vice Chairman Jefferson, and New York Fed president Williams decide to cut interest rates, they will likely have the support of three Trump-appointed officials on the committee. But that would only give them 6 votes out of the 12 voting members. They need the seventh vote to get a majority. The four non-New York Federal Reserve Bank presidents (Gulspie, Collins, Mousalem, and Schmidt) who have voting rights at this meeting have all expressed reservations about cutting rates. In this situation, Powell can turn to two Biden-appointed officials to get his majority. One of them is Barr, who seems very concerned about inflation now and advocates caution. Therefore, he is likely to vote "against." This leaves only one director, whom Powell can seek to secure the seventh vote. This official closely monitors the health of the labor market and remains tight-lipped about future policy actions. This official is none other than Cook. The Supreme Court is set to hear the case on January 21 next year whether President Trump can dismiss her, as Trump has been trying to remove her since last fall. Bank of America Corp. relaxes regulatory benefits Jefferies Financial Group Inc. predicts a release of $2.6 trillion in loan capacity. According to analysts at Jefferies Financial Group Inc., Bank of America Corp's relaxation of regulations is expected to release about $2.6 trillion in loan capacity for large Financial Institutions, Inc., thereby consolidating higher valuations of US loan agencies compared to European competitors. Analysts Aniket Shah and Daniel Fannon wrote in a report on Friday that relaxed regulations can "substantially increase loan, merger, and technology investment by 2026", boosting revenue and market share. They cited a discussion with Fernandodela Mora, joint head of financial services at Alvarez&Marsal, writing, Capital release may strengthen Bank of America Corp's valuation premium over European peers and support higher stock prices. Trump administration officials are planning to soften bank capital measures put in place after the 2008 financial crisis. Following complaints from banks that this would limit their operations, the Fed has circulated plans to greatly relax a proposal from the Biden era aimed at raising capital levels. European bankers and politicians also said that EU banking regulations are too strict, giving US loan agencies an advantage. US white-collar unemployment rate hits record high College graduates account for 25% of the total unemployed. Data shows that people in the US with a four-year college degree now account for a record 25% of the total unemployed, highlighting a sharp slowdown in white-collar hiring this year. Monthly data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, delayed due to the government shutdown, showed that the unemployment rate for those with a bachelor's degree rose to 2.8% in September, half a percentage point higher than a year ago. In contrast, the unemployment rate for other education levels either hardly increased or did not increase at all during the same period. In September, there were over 1.9 million unemployed Americans aged 25 and above with at least a bachelor's degree, accounting for a quarter of the total unemployed. This proportion has never been this high in data dating back to 1992, showing that younger, recent college graduates are also struggling to find jobs. Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist at JPMorgan Chase, pointed out that the rise in unemployment among college-educated people "could further exacerbate concerns about AI-related unemployment". Fed's Collins: The retreat of global economic integration may push up inflation. Fed's Collins said on Friday that the retreat of global economic integration may make the Fed's work more complex and raise price pressures. Collins pointed out that the shift towards "economic fragmentation" could bring about a "transitional period of inflation pressure". She also stated that this environment could lead to a "reduction in financial integration", thereby "raising domestic borrowing costs and more broadly affecting financial conditions". She said, "A more turbulent and fragmented global environment may lead to exacerbation of business cycles and inflation fluctuations". She further noted that this environment "may complicate the Fed's efforts to maintain price stability and maximum employment, especially if the supply-side components of economic shocks predominate in this new environment". Collins also stated that rising global risks and fragmentation "often suppress short-term economic activity while hindering long-term growth, potentially becoming significant, transformative, and interwoven forces shaping the economic landscape in the coming years". Fed's Logan: The Fed needs to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged". Dallas Fed President Logan, a 2026 FOMC voting member, said on Friday that the Fed needs to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged" while assessing the current level of monetary policy tightening. In a speech in Zurich, she reiterated her previous view that the Fed's rate cut in October was unreasonable in a situation where inflation remains high and the labor market is roughly balanced. She said, "Maintaining rates unchanged for a period of time before there is clear evidence to support further easing will enable the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to better assess the current constraints of the policy". Fed's Vice Chair Jefferson: The AI stock surge is unlikely to repeat the scenario of the late 1990s Internet bubble burst. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said on Friday that he believes the current AI-related stock surge is unlikely to repeat the collapse of the late 1990s Internet bubble, mainly because today's AI-related companies are more mature and have genuine profit potential. A recent Fed report showed that about 30% of respondents believe that a sudden shift in market sentiment unfavorable to AI is a significant risk to the American Financial Group, Inc. system and the global economy. Jefferson pointed out that while investors are enthusiastic about AI companies, the overall financial system is "robust and resilient". In his speech, he said that unlike the speculative Internet bubble of that time, AI companies have not heavily relied on debt financing to date. Jefferson said that when market sentiment shifts, limited use of leverage "may reduce the extent to which credit market shocks are transmitted to the broader economy". [Stock News] Tesla, Inc. sued in US for fatal car accident, faulty door handles blamed for hindering rescue. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) has been sued in Washington state following a fatal fire accident that resulted in one death and one serious injury, with rescue personnel allegedly unable to open the vehicle's doors. This is the latest lawsuit in an increasing number of lawsuits against the company's electric car door handles. The claim stems from an accident that occurred in January 2023. At that time, Jeffery Dennis and his wife Wendy were driving their Model 3 sedan out for errands on a Saturday afternoon. According to the lawsuit filed in federal court in Washington state on Friday, the electric vehicle "suddenly and rapidly accelerated out of control," crashed into a utility pole, and caught fire. The complaint alleges that Tesla, Inc.'s "unique and defective car door handle design" prevented the doors from operating and hindered the rescue process. Wendy died on the scene, while Dennis was injured, including burns to his legs. This lawsuit comes weeks after a lawsuit against Tesla, Inc. in Wisconsin involving a Model S crash that resulted in the deaths of five occupants in a rapidly spreading fire because the doors couldn't be opened. Supplier Fire Again Ford insists supply chain and full-year profit targets unaffected. Ford Motor Company (F.US) stated that the latest fire at its key aluminum supplier in New York will not derail the company's profit projections for the year, as the fire was "quickly contained" and the factory has resumed operations. Ford reiterated that despite this week's second major fire at Novelis, its major aluminum supplier for the best-selling F-series pickups, the company still expects pretax profit for the year to be $60 billion to $65 billion. Ford had previously lowered its expected profit for the year by as much as $20 billion due to a fire at the facility in September.