Japanese Economist: Sharp Decline In Chinese Tourists Could Cost Japan Trillions Of Yen Annually

Following Recent Advisories From The Ministry Of Foreign Affairs, Ministry Of Education, And Ministry Of Culture And Tourism Urging Chinese Citizens To Exercise Caution When Traveling To Japan, More Than A Dozen Domestic Airlines, Including The Three Major Carriers And Private Airlines, Announced Free Cancellation And Rescheduling Policies For Japan‑Bound Flights. According To A Senior Aviation Analyst, Between Last Saturday And Monday, Chinese Airlines Collectively Canceled About 491,000 Tickets To Japan.

Several Economists Warned That The Sharp Reduction In Chinese Tourists To Japan Could Result In Annual Losses Of Trillions Of Yen For The Japanese Economy, Further Worsening Its Already Fragile State.

Japan’s Economy Will Suffer Trillion‑Yen Losses: Nomura Research Institute Economist Takahide Kiuchi, Based In Tokyo, Estimated That Japan’s Domestic Product Could Decline By 1.79 Trillion Yen (Approximately RMB 81.139 Billion) Over The Next Year, Equivalent To 0.29% Of Japan’s 607.9 Trillion Yen GDP Last Year. Kiuchi Stated That If Tourists From Mainland China Abandon Trips To Japan, The Economy Could Lose About 1.49 Trillion Yen (Approximately RMB 67.920 Billion) Next Year. He Further Estimated That Reduced Visitors From Hong Kong Could Cost Japan An Additional 290 Billion Yen (Approximately RMB 132.19 Billion).

“This Will Have A Significant Impact On The Economy,” He Said In A Research Report Released Tuesday, Adding That The Dispute Is Expected To Intensify Japan’s Current Economic Difficulties. Stefan Angrick, Japan Economist At Moody’s Analytics, Agreed With Kiuchi, Noting That “The Sharp Decline In Chinese Tourists To Japan Will Hit The Economy.” Angrick Stated That Based On Past Disputes, Such A Decline Could Reduce Japan’s GDP Growth By 0.2 Percentage Points. “This Is Not Catastrophic, But For An Economy Already Struggling, It Is Undoubtedly Another Blow,” He Said.

Japanese Market Already Under Pressure: On Wednesday, The Yen Continued To Weaken Against The U.S. Dollar After Breaking The Psychological Threshold Of 155 Per Dollar On Tuesday. Broader Markets Also Faced Pressure. Japanese Stocks Suffered Consecutive Sharp Declines This Week, While Government Bonds Were Sold Off, Pushing Long‑Term Yields To Multi‑Decade Highs, Reflecting Mounting Concerns Over Japan’s Economy.

Takahide Kiuchi Warned That If The Dispute Affects Sino‑Japanese Trade, The Impact On Japan’s Economy Would Be “Even Greater.” Japanese Media Reported That China Has Informed Japan It Will Suspend Imports Of Japanese Seafood, With The Notice Delivered Through Official Diplomatic Channels. On November 19, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning Emphasized At A Press Conference That Recent Erroneous Remarks By Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi On Major Issues Such As Taiwan Had Sparked Strong Public Anger In China. Under Current Circumstances, Even If Japanese Seafood Were Exported To China, There Would Be No Market.

Kiuchi Cautioned: “If Imports Of Agricultural And Other Goods From China Are Disrupted, It Could Further Drive Up Domestic Prices In Japan… In Addition, This May Negatively Affect Japanese Companies’ Operations In China.”

According To Government Data Cited By Kyodo News Last Month, About 7.49 Million Chinese Tourists Visited Japan In The First Nine Months Of This Year, Making China The Largest Source Of Inbound Visitors. Kiuchi Emphasized This Point, Noting That Chinese Tourists Accounted For 23.7% Of All Visitors To Japan In The First Three Quarters.

Without The Impact Of The Current Diplomatic Dispute, Kiuchi Projected That Chinese Tourists’ Spending In Japan Next Year Would Have Reached About 3.15 Trillion Yen (Approximately RMB 1435.92 Billion), Based On Average Spending Of 239,000 Yen (Approximately RMB 10894.81) Per Mainland Visitor And Assuming Growth Rates Similar To The First Nine Months Of This Year.

However, If The Number Of Chinese Tourists To Japan Falls By 25% Next Year, Their Spending Would Drop To 1.65 Trillion Yen (Approximately RMB 752.15 Billion), Inflicting An Estimated 1.49 Trillion Yen (Approximately RMB 679.21 Billion) Blow To Japan’s Economy.