Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures all rose, Nvidia stock rose after performance report, September non-farm report to be announced soon.

Pre-market market trends 1. In pre-market trading on Thursday, November 20th, US stock index futures all rose. As of the time of writing, Dow Jones futures were up 0.56%, S&P 500 index futures were up 1.17%, and Nasdaq futures were up 1.60%. 2. As of the time of writing, Germany's DAX index was up 0.74%, the UK's FTSE 100 index was up 0.46%, France's CAC 40 index was up 0.65%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was up 0.81%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 0.95% at $59.81 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 0.90% at $64.08 per barrel. Market News The Fed's decision-making fog persists! Delayed September non-farm data difficult to shed light on rate cut prospects. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September non-farm employment data on Thursday, ending the official employment data gap caused by the government shutdown - although the data is undoubtedly outdated. The report is expected to show an increase of 50,000 non-farm jobs, higher than the initial report of 22,000 jobs in August but still indicating a soft labor market. As this data is from September, it offers limited help to policymakers trying to navigate difficult situations and may be overlooked by the market. Fed Chair Powell recently likened the situation to "driving in the fog" and warned not to view further rate cuts as a foregone conclusion. The AI boom continues to empower! Barclays bullish on large cap tech stocks leading S&P 500 index to break 7400 points. Barclays strategists have raised their target for the S&P 500 index at the end of 2026 to 7400 points, a potential increase of 11.4% from Wednesday's closing level of 6642.16 points, citing the strength of mega-cap tech stocks and improved monetary and fiscal environments despite slow economic growth. The 7400 point target was raised by 5.7% from the previous target of 7000 points. The bank's strategists also raised their EPS target for the S&P 500 index in 2026 from $295 to $305, as they believe profit growth in the tech sector will exceed Wall Street's general expectations, stating that "mega-cap companies continue to perform well in a macro environment of low growth, and the AI competition shows no signs of slowing down." However, they believe there is downside risk to consensus EPS expectations excluding the tech sector. Fed October meeting minutes: Internal divisions escalate, data gaps worsen uncertainty, and December rate cut expectations steeply decline. The latest minutes from the Fed's October FOMC meeting show rare deep divisions among policymakers on whether to continue cutting rates, with discussions ranging from inflation risks to cooling labor markets, and deviations between economic growth and financial environments, presenting a situation of multiple uncertainties. Although the Fed ultimately voted 10-2 to cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate range to 3.75%-4%, the minutes reveal that this decision was a consensus reached with intense debate, and the outlook for whether to cut rates again in December is becoming increasingly unclear. The most concerning aspect of the minutes is the apparent sharp division within the Fed on the policy path for December. Trump reportedly plans to delay semiconductor tariffs to avoid escalation of US-China trade tensions. US officials privately indicate that they may not move quickly to implement long-promised semiconductor tariff measures, which could delay a key component of President Trump's economic agenda. According to two individuals directly familiar with the matter and another familiar with related discussions, this information has been communicated to government and private sector stakeholders in recent days. A fourth person following the matter also stated that the US government is taking a more cautious approach. According to the two sources, Trump's aides are delaying action on chip tariffs, working to avoid conflict with China over trade issues, as it could lead to a resumption of a trade war and disrupt the supply of key rare earth minerals. Not convinced by NVIDIA Corporation's earnings report? "Big Short" continues to criticize AI: Real demand is "laughably low." The character from "The Big Short," Michael Burry, issued a warning on Wednesday night local time, claiming that the real end-user demand for artificial intelligence (AI) is far lower than the scale reported by major tech companies. This commentary came shortly after NVIDIA Corporation released another impressive quarterly earnings report, sparking a global rebound in tech stocks. He posted an image showing AI investment agreements between major tech giants including Microsoft Corporation, OpenAI, Oracle Corporation, and NVIDIA Corporation, and accused some of these companies of engaging in "suspicious revenue recognition" practices, implying that the reported growth may not reflect actual market demand. Burry believes that "real end-user demand is laughably low" and claims that many customers driving AI growth are funded by the companies selling them AI technology - painting a picture of a self-reinforcing cycle rather than sustainable widespread applications. Stock-specific News NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) breaks through expectations! AI computing power demand continues to soar, data center revenue jumps by 66%. NVIDIA Corporation's fiscal third-quarter earnings report for 2025 showed significant outperformance in revenue, profit, and outlook for the next quarter, largely alleviating investor concerns about the AI bubble. Data showed that NVIDIA Corporation's Q3 revenue increased by 62% year-on-year to $57 billion, outperforming the market's expectation of $55.2 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $1.30, exceeding the market's expectation of $1.26. Data center revenue broke through the $50 billion mark for the first time, surging by 66% year-on-year to $51.2 billion, exceeding the market's expectation of $49.1 billion. The company also expects revenue in the fourth quarter to further increase to $65 billion, significantly higher than the market's expectation of $61.66 billion, emphasizing the strong demand for AI computing power. As of the time of writing, NVIDIA Corporation was up nearly 5% in pre-market trading. Walmart Inc. (WMT.US) exceeds revenue and profit expectations, raises 2026 fiscal year performance forecast. Walmart Inc.'s third-quarter GAAP earnings per share were $0.62, exceeding expectations by $0.02. Revenue reached $179.5 billion (up 5.8% year-on-year), exceeding expectations by $4.33 billion. The company raised its net sales growth forecast for the 2026 fiscal year to 4.8%-5.1%, and adjusted revenue growth forecast to 4.8%-5.5% (both calculated at fixed exchange rates). Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $2.58-$2.63, including an unfavorable foreign exchange impact of $0.01-$0.02. Palo Alto (PANW.US) Q1 revenue and adjusted EPS beat expectations, platformization progress slows down. The company's fiscal first-quarter revenue for the 2026 fiscal year reached $2.47 billion, up 16% year-on-year, slightly higher than the market's expectation of $2.46 billion; adjusted earnings per share reached $0.93, exceeding the market's expectation of $0.89. Next-generation security annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached $5.9 billion, up 29% year-on-year, in line with guidance; but net platformization only achieved 60 units, lower than expected, and significantly lower than the 150 units last quarter and 100 units in the same period last year. The company expects second-quarter revenue to be in the range of $25.7-$25.9 billion, in line with market expectations; full-year revenue forecast has been raised to $105-$105.4 billion, higher than the earlier forecast of $105.1 billion; operating margin outlook raised by 30 basis points; next-gen security ARR and remaining performance obligations (RPO) remain unchanged. As of the time of writing, Palo Alto was down nearly 4% in pre-market trading. Novartis AG Sponsored ADR Pharmaceuticals (NVS.US) raises peak sales forecasts for two key cancer drugs, expected to drive annual revenue growth of 5%-6% by 2030. Novartis AG Sponsored ADR Pharmaceuticals expects sales revenue to grow by 5%-6% by 2030 after adjusting for exchange rates. This is thanks to the increased revenue expectations for its cancer drugs Kisqali and Scemblix. The pharmaceutical company raised the peak sales forecast for Kisqali (used to treat a common type of breast cancer) from the previous $8 billion to at least $10 billion. For the leukemia drug Scemblix, Novartis AG Sponsored ADR now expects its peak sales to be at least $4 billion, higher than the previous expected at least $3 billion. The company stated that the peak potential sales of their eight most promising approved drugs are between $3 billion to $10 billion each. Netease Inc Sponsored ADR (NTES.US) third-quarter net profit was approximately RMB 8.616 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.77%. The financial report shows that Netease Inc Sponsored ADR's Q3 net revenue was RMB 28.4 billion (approximately $4 billion), an increase of 8.2% year-on-year. Gross profit was RMB 18.2 billion (approximately $2.6 billion), an increase of 10.3% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to company shareholders was approximately RMB 8.616 billion (approximately $1.2 billion), a year-on-year increase of 31.77%; basic earnings per share were $0.38, and the Q3 dividend was $0.1140 per share. Important Economic Data and Event Preview 21:30 Beijing time - US September Non-Farm Employment Report 21:30 Beijing time - US November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 23:00 Beijing time - US October Existing Home Sales Annualized Total 00:00 Beijing time the next day - Fed Governor Lael Brainard speaks on financial stability 01:40 Beijing time the next day - 2025 FOMC Voter, Chicago Fed President Guzby speaks 05:30 Beijing time the next day - 2026 FOMC Voter, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson speaks on economic prospects Earnings Forecast Friday morning: Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST.US) Friday pre-market: MNSO (MNSO.US)