Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures fell together, with the S&P and Nasdaq breaking below the 50-day moving average, signaling a technical breakdown warning.

Pre-market Market Trends 1. On November 18 (Tuesday), pre-market trading in the US stock market saw futures for the three major stock market indices all falling. As of the time of writing, Dow futures fell by 0.68%, S&P 500 futures fell by 0.57%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.72%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index fell by 1.40%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 1.37%, the France CAC 40 index fell by 1.42%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 1.46%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 0.02% to $59.87 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell by 0.05% to $64.17 per barrel. Market News S&P, Nasdaq face "Black Monday," technical collapse warning sounded! Analysts studying the chart patterns of the US stock market have sounded the alarm, expressing concerns that the recent downturn may escalate into a comprehensive pullback. The S&P 500 index closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time in 139 trading days, breaking its second-longest record above that trendline this century. The index has also fallen more than 50 points below the 6725 mark, a level that could cause trend-tracking quant funds (CTAs) to shift from buyers to sellers. Similarly, the Nasdaq is also below its 50-day moving average, ending its longest consecutive record above the trendline since October 2, 1995. John Roque, technical analysis director at 22V Research, noted that the Nasdaq has also sent some "bad" signals. He pointed out that among the approximately 3300 components of the index, the number of stocks hitting 52-week lows exceeds those hitting new highs, indicating a low probability of further rebound. On Tuesday, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $90,000, further fueling risk aversion in the market. Fed's Jefferson: Soft job market shifts risk balance, further rate cuts need a "prudent approach". Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson indicated that as the Fed adjusts policy to levels that may no longer exert downward pressure on inflation, a "prudent approach" is needed for any further rate cuts. Jefferson noted that considering the increased risks in the job market and the recent easing of inflation risks, he believed the 25 basis point rate cut implemented by the Fed last month was appropriate. "The current policy stance is still somewhat restrictive but is closer to a neutral level that does not inhibit or stimulate the economy. The dynamic change in risk balance highlights the need for a steady progression in policy adjustments as we approach the neutral interest rate." Hawks retreat, doves advance! Fed's "big change" imminent, will rate cut advocates gain an advantage from Trump? Although there is still disagreement within the Federal Reserve on whether to cut rates for a third time before the final policy meeting of the year, the forthcoming changes in the committee members have already begun to outline the direction of the policy for next year. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic announced this week that he will retire after his term ends in February next year, creating a vacancy for a key position currently held by a hawkish figure. If the Atlanta Fed appoints a successor with a more dovish policy view, this could push the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) responsible for setting rates towards further rate cuts - even though the Atlanta Fed does not have a voting right until 2027. Internal divisions within the Fed are severe, but UBS Group AG calls for December rate cut to be basically nailed down! The meeting minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to be released later this week are likely to expose the depth of the differences among decision-makers when opinions on whether the Fed will cut rates in December are divided in the market. However, UBS Group AG believes that the "all data" expected to be released before the December meeting will not shake the prevailing sentiment supporting the third rate cut this year. In a recent report, UBS Group AG economists stated that although the meeting minutes for October will reveal the degree of disagreement among committee members on short-term monetary policy decisions...we still expect a strong willingness to cut rates in December. We also believe that all data to be released by that time will not change this view, and recent news is not optimistic. Government shutdown drags on data release, initial jobless claims of 232,000 "quietly" released. Historical data published on the US Department of Labor website shows that as of the week ending October 18, the total number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000; continued jobless claims were at 1.957 million, slightly higher than the previous week's 1.947 million. In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it will release the Consumer Price Index for September this Friday, so that the Social Security Administration can calculate the annual cost of living adjustment for Social Security recipients. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. warns: Imbalance between supply and demand exacerbates, oil price decline to continue until 2026. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. indicates that the decline in oil prices is expected to continue until 2026, as a surge in production will lead to a significant oversupply of around 2 million barrels per day in the market. The bank predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 will be $56 per barrel, and WTI crude oil will be $52 per barrel, below the current forward contract prices of $63 and $60, respectively. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. points out: "The surge in supply in 2025-2026 is primarily driven by two factors: first, long-cycle projects that were finalized just before the pandemic, delayed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and are now coming online for production; second, OPEC strategic decision to end production cuts." In addition, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. forecasts that oil prices will rebound starting from 2027, as the low oil prices in 2025-2026 will curb production from non-OPEC oil-producing countries, and the lack of new projects coming online after 2026 due to 15 years of underinvestment. Stock-specific news iPhone 17's first-month sales in China surge by 37%! Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) regains a 20% market share. The iPhone 17 series from Apple Inc. drove a 37% increase in monthly smartphone sales in the Chinese market, indicating strong momentum in a key market. According to data from Counterpoint Research, in October, every four smartphones sold in China were iPhones, marking the first time Apple Inc. has reached this market share threshold since 2022. These data suggest that the upgraded models released by Apple Inc. in recent years have resonated with consumers and also support CEO Tim Cook's prediction that the company's performance in China will resume growth this quarter. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) CEO warns: Current AI market has irrational factors, no company will be spared if bubble bursts. Alphabet Inc. Class C CEO Pichai stated that the current wave of AI investment is an "extraordinary moment," but he acknowledged the existence of "irrational factors" in the market. When asked how Alphabet Inc. Class C would deal with a potential bursting bubble, Pichai stated that he believed the company would weather the storm because it has a unique "full-stack" model encompassing a range of technologies from chips to YouTube data, models, and cutting-edge science, giving it more ability to handle any turmoil in the AI market. However, he added: "I believe no company can be spared, including us." Arm (ARM.US) partners with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US): to deep integrate NVLink technology in AI data center chips. The two companies announced that as the largest owner of processor technology globally, Arm will incorporate NVLink interface technology into its Neoverse platform. NVIDIA Corporation is a leading supplier of semiconductor chips used in artificial intelligence infrastructure, and NVLink has become a key tool in connecting a large number of such chips. This move will strengthen the collaboration between the two influential semiconductor companies. Meanwhile, Arm is attempting to sell its Neoverse technology to more so-called hyperscale operators (the largest data center operators). The company has stated that its product is moving towards capturing a 50% market share. Home Depot, Inc. (HD.US) Q3 comparable store sales only grew by 0.2%, below expectations. The financial report shows that Home Depot, Inc.'s Q3 sales were $41.35 billion, beating market expectations of $40.97 billion; comparable store sales increased by 0.2%, well below the expected growth of 1.4%; adjusted earnings per share were $3.74, falling short of the expected $3.84. Home Depot, Inc. updated its guidance for the 2025 fiscal year, now expecting sales to grow by around 3.0%, including $2 billion in revenue from the GMS acquisition. The company expects comparable store sales to slightly increase, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 13.0%, and forecasts a decrease of around 5.0% in adjusted diluted earnings per share compared to $15.24 in the 2024 fiscal year. As of the time of writing, Home Depot, Inc. was down nearly 4% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. $25 billion paint giant born! Axalta (AXTA.US) to merge with AkzoNobel in all-stock deal. Axalta Coating Systems announced a merger with AkzoNobel through an all-stock deal, creating a $25 billion global paint company. The merger is expected to be completed by the end of 2026 or early 2027. The combined company plans to achieve annual revenue of around $17 billion and realize $600 million in cost synergies, with 90% of the benefits expected to be achieved within the first three years. As of the time of writing, Axalta Coating Systems was up over 7% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. Baidu Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (BIDU.US)) reports total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in Q3, AI new business revenue grows by over 50% YoY. Baidu Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A reported total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in the third quarter. In Q3, the fully autonomous driving operation orders provided by Baidu Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A's self-driving car service Apollo Go reached 3.1 million, with a growth rate accelerating from 148% in the previous quarter to 212%. Infrastructure revenue from intelligent cloud reached 4.2 billion yuan, up 33% year-on-year; subscription revenue from high-performance AI computing facilities jumped 128% year-on-year. AI application revenue reached 2.6 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year. AI native marketing service revenue reached 2.8 billion yuan, up 262% year-on-year. Futu Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A (FUTU.US) reports Q3 revenue up over 86% YoY, net profit surges by nearly 137%. Data shows that Futu's total revenue in the third quarter was 6.403 billion Hong Kong dollars (about 823 million US dollars), up 86.3% year-on-year; on a non-GAAP basis, net profit was 3.312 billion Hong Kong dollars (about 426 million US dollars), up 136.9% year-on-year. As of the end of the third quarter, users registered on Futu's platforms Futu Niuniu and moomoo reached 28.16 million, with accounts at 5.61 million, up 17% and 31% year-on-year, respectively; the number of clients with assets increased by 43% to 3.13 million; the total client assets on the platform exceeded one trillion Hong Kong dollars (about 1.595 trillion US dollars) for the first time, up 79% year-on-year. As of the time of writing, Futu was up over 2% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. Weibo Corp. Sponsored ADR Class A (WB.US) releases Q3 results, attributable net profit for shareholders reaches $454 million, up by 55.43% YoY. Weibo Corp. Sponsored ADR Class A achieved net revenue of approximately $442 million in the third quarter, down by 4.77% year-on-year; net profit attributable to Weibo Corp. Sponsored ADR Class A shareholders was $221 million, up by 69.33% year-on-year; basic earnings per share were $0.93. The monthly active users in September 2025 reached 578 million, and the daily active users in September 2025 were 257 million. Advertising and marketing revenue in the third quarter was $375 million, down by 6% compared to the same period last year. Advertising and marketing revenue (excluding revenue from Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR) was about $330 million, down by 13% compared to $377 million in the same period last year. Upcoming Important Economic Data and Events 8:15 pm Beijing time: ADP weekly employment data release 10:00 pm Beijing time: Revised monthly rate of durable goods orders in the US for August 11:00 pm Beijing time: Monthly rate of factory orders in the US for August 11:30 pm Beijing time: Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks on bank regulation 12:00 am Beijing time the next day: FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on economic outlook Earnings Forecast Wednesday morning: Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. Sponsored ADR Pfd Series B (SQM.US) Wednesday pre-market: TJX Companies (TJX.US), Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW.US), Target Corporation (TGT.US), GDS Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A (GDS.US), Bullish (BLSH.US), KINGSOFT CLOUD (KC.US)