Large models break through to start the "acceleration run" of computing power. Caitong suggests paying attention to Lenovo (00992) and Kingdee (00268) and other four stocks.

Recently, the research team led by Caitong Haoyan Hui released a research report stating that the gap between models and capital expenditure is narrowing in the current comparison of AI layout between Chinese and American internet companies. A global competition layout led by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Tesla has been formed by large models, with Chinese companies DeepSeek and Alibaba Tongyi Qianwen reaching the top tier. According to GPQA test results, the top 25 are mainly composed of large models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Google, and Meta, with a relatively low proportion of Chinese companies. DeepSeek-V3/R1, released in December 2024/January 2025, disrupted the global AI landscape and officially represented Chinese/open source large models aligning with SOTA; Alibaba's Qwen-3 followed closely behind, entering the top tier in performance. In recent times, major technology companies have heavily invested in training large models and adapting them to their own businesses through inference; training + inference jointly drive the demand for in-house computing power. On the external supply side, cloud providers are offering large models APIs on their own cloud computing platforms, and the MaaS business model is driving an increase in external computing power. With strong demand both internally and externally, companies are accelerating their investment in computing power resources, driving high CapEx growth. In 2Q2025, the capital expenditure density (capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue) of Microsoft/Google/Meta/Amazon reached 34.8%/23.3%/35.8%/18.7%. As for internet giants in China, in 2Q2025, Baidu/Alibaba/Tencent's capital expenditure increased by +10.2%/+162.7%/+319.1% to 23/318/366 billion yuan respectively. The starting point for domestic internet giants to accelerate AI investment is about a year later than overseas, and the gap in CapEx as a percentage of revenue compared to overseas giants is still significant. In terms of investment recommendations, it is suggested to pay attention to: Meituan (03690): Valuation has potential for recovery after a pullback Kingdee International (00268): Continued high growth in cloud business, subscription-based transformation brings sustainable ARR growth, AI+ERP is expected to open a new growth curve Lenovo Group (00992): Expected to break out of the slow bull trend, AI PC product cycle begins, data center business benefits from the increase in AI computing power demand Tencent (00700): Long-term optimal choice.