From Falling Orders to Surging Fertilizer Costs, U.S. Farmers Confront a “Trade and Fiscal Cliff”

U.S. farmers are experiencing mounting financial strain as domestic tariff measures drive down sales orders, inflate fertilizer prices, elevate equipment expenses, and disrupt supply chains. On September 15, the BBC cited statements from American agricultural organizations warning that producers now face a “trade and fiscal cliff.” A report on Newsweek’s website echoed these concerns, noting that growers nationwide, impacted by several policies under President Trump’s administration, urgently require support.

Data compiled by Bloomberg in July indicate that bankruptcy filings among small farming operations have climbed to a five-year peak. Figures from the University of Arkansas confirm a rise in farm insolvencies: between April 2024 and March 2025, there were 259 bankruptcy petitions—nearly double the number recorded in the first quarter of the previous year.

“I’m concerned,” said 65-year-old Iowa farmer Tim Maxwell. “Our harvests, yields, and weather conditions are favorable, but demand remains weak.” Maxwell attributes part of the downturn to reduced international sales, a direct consequence of U.S. tariff policies.

Economists and industry groups identify the U.S.-China trade relationship as a primary factor. Last year, Chinese buyers imported $12.7 billion of U.S. soybeans, but by September, the American Soybean Association reported that orders from China were far below anticipated levels. At the same time, domestic outlets have failed to fill the gap. The closure of the U.S. Agency for International Development—formerly one of the nation’s largest purchasers of American grain at approximately $2.1 billion annually—has left many farmers scrambling for alternative markets with limited success.

Rising input costs compound the challenge. Tariffs stemming from a dispute with Canada have driven fertilizer prices sharply higher. Former Montana Senator Jon Tester remarked that these duties have “disrupted our supply chains and increased the cost of new equipment,” noting that international buyers are increasingly reluctant to purchase U.S.-made goods. A Farm Aid survey found that growers are losing between $100 and $200 per acre this year.

Market volatility has intensified uncertainty. Cornell University agricultural economist Professor Wolf observed that erratic tariff adjustments since their introduction have made planning exceptionally difficult for farm operators.

This confluence of pressures is straining farmers’ political allegiances. While many had supported President Trump’s tariff strategy initially, that backing is conditional on tangible results. Iowa dairy producer Maxwell said, “We gave him time to implement tariffs, but we need to see real benefits within 18 months.”

Meanwhile, Faye, co-executive director of Farm Aid, warns of parallels with the 1980s farm crisis, which resulted in the disappearance of 250,000 U.S. farms. According to her, today’s growers see an uncanny resemblance between the current predicament and the hardships that devastated rural communities nearly half a century ago.