China Automobile Dealers Association: It is expected that the total retail sales of passenger cars in September will reach 2.2 million units.

On September 18, the China Automobile Dealers Association stated that as the peak consumption season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, large-scale autumn car exhibitions are being launched one after another. Dealers are aggressively promoting sales at the end of the quarter, with strong marketing efforts and the combined effect of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day double holidays. This will lead to a rapid release of consumer demand for car purchases, supporting a continued increase in terminal sales in September. Combining the sales volume in August and the growth rate of dealer data in the first half of September, it is estimated that the total sales of passenger cars in September will reach 2.2 million units. In August this year, the passenger car market continued to show year-on-year positive growth, performing better than expected. This was mainly driven by the release of purchasing demand at the start of the school season, the 818 Car Buying Festival, various car exhibitions promotion activities, and the release of the third batch of subsidies for trading in old cars for new in late July. Various local policies gradually restarted and were optimized, effectively stimulating consumption potential. On September 12, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued the "Steady Growth Work Plan for the Automobile Industry (2025-2026)", which aims to achieve an annual total vehicle sales of about 32.3 million units by 2025, an increase of about 3% year-on-year. This includes the goal of selling about 15.5 million units of new energy vehicles, an increase of about 20% year-on-year, ensuring stable growth in automobile exports, and achieving a value-added growth of about 6% in the automobile manufacturing industry. Regarding the trade-in of old cars for new ones, some regions are currently in a period of dynamic adjustment for the policy, especially for the "substitution renewal" subsidies. The adjustment aims to optimize the implementation effect of the policy, ensure the accurate allocation of subsidy funds, and will resume, temporarily suspend or optimize the application process. The fourth batch of 69 billion yuan in subsidy funds is planned to be released in October to ensure that funds cover the entire consumption cycle of the year. According to the latest data, as of September 10, the number of applications for trading in old cars for new ones has reached 8.3 million this year. The continued efforts of the policy are positively stimulating automobile consumption. As September enters the peak season of car consumption, family car purchases at the start of the school season, self-driving trips during the National Day holiday, and wedding car demands are all significantly released. Dealers are stepping up sales promotions at the end of the quarter, increasing terminal sales, coupled with the attraction of local car exhibitions, significantly enhancing the efficiency of order conversion. Over 30 new cars were launched at the end of August in the Chengdu Car Exhibition, providing support for the continuous warming up of the market in September and the fourth quarter. It is expected that retail sales of passenger cars in September will achieve a steady increase compared to the previous month, with a performance better than in August. Based on the feedback from dealers on customer attraction, sales, and inventory in the bi-weekly reports: In the first half of September, customer attraction increased by 1.2% compared to the same period in August, but decreased by 8.8% compared to the second half of August. The early part of August experienced high temperatures and heavy rainfall, combined with a slow sales pace of dealers, leading to a decrease in customer flow in stores; however, with cooler weather and the launch of new car models in the second half of the month, terminal traffic started to rebound. September has cooler and more comfortable weather, suitable for consumers to visit dealerships to see cars. By late September, large car exhibitions will be opened one after another, and dealers may launch National Day promotions in advance. It is expected that customer flow in the second half of September will significantly increase compared to the first half. In the first half of September, orders increased by 2.0% compared to the same period in August but decreased by 16.6% compared to the second half of August. The end of August saw the launch of many new cars, effectively boosting the increase in orders. At the same time, the demand for cars for the National Day Golden Week trips and peak wedding periods will be released in September, with expectations of steady growth in order volume in the second half of the month. In the first half of September, sales increased by 5.5% compared to the same period in August but decreased by 24.2% compared to the second half of August. In September, the demand for cars at the start of the school season, wedding season, and the National Day holiday will be relatively concentrated. With the aggressive sales promotions by dealers at the end of the quarter and approaching the consumption nodes of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, sales in the second half of September are expected to further increase. In the first half of September, inventory decreased slightly by 0.7% compared to the end of August. In preparation for the peak season of car consumption in September and October, some dealers actively replenished their inventory at the end of August, leading to an increase in stock compared to mid-August. By mid-September, dealer inventory had slightly decreased compared to the end of August.