Early delivery times for the iPhone 17 series have increased, Morgan Stanley maintains a "hold" rating for Apple Inc. (AAPL.US).

Morgan Stanley stated that the early delivery time of the iPhone 17 series is comparable to or slightly longer than the same period last year. The firm maintains a "hold" rating on Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) with a target price of $240. Morgan Stanley pointed out that the initial supply situation for the iPhone 17 series is better than last year, and the early delivery time is comparable to or slightly longer than the same period last year, indicating that early demand for the iPhone 17 may have increased year-over-year. This positive signal contrasts with the market's expectation of flat iPhone shipments for the 2026 fiscal year, bringing optimistic prospects for Apple Inc. The firm's data shows that in the first 4 days after the start of pre-orders for the iPhone 17 series (as of September 16), delivery times in most major markets globally are comparable to or higher compared to the previous year. Specifically: iPhone 17 Pro Max: Delivery time in the US is 22.5 days, international average is 24 days, significantly longer than the initial 19.4 days. Compared to the international market, delivery time increased by 1.2 days. iPhone 17 Pro: Delivery time in the US is 14.2 days, international average is 18.1 days, a decrease of 2 days year-over-year, but still increased by 2 days in the international market. iPhone Air: Delivery time in the US is 6.7 days, international average is 7.9 days, a decrease of 3 days year-over-year (compared to the iPhone 16 Plus) and not yet launched in the Chinese market. iPhone 17 standard version: Shows the most outstanding performance, with delivery time in the US at 15.5 days, international average is 19 days, an increase of 6.5 days and 9 days year-over-year. The delivery time in the Chinese market reached 30.5 days, the highest record in two years. These data indicate strong overall demand for the iPhone 17, especially for the base model and Pro Max model. The report emphasizes that the early supply situation is better than last year, mainly due to the improvement in production yield and the expansion of production capacity at the factory in India - Apple Inc. is simultaneously producing and shipping all new models in India for the first time. Morgan Stanley's report found through on-site research that current users' motivation to upgrade mainly comes from replacing old devices. The average replacement cycle for iPhones is about 5 years, meaning that iPhone 12 users (the last group of the "super cycle") naturally become upgraders this year. Morgan Stanley predicts that Apple Inc.'s revenue for the 2026 fiscal year will increase by 6.5%, with iPhone revenue increasing by 5.5% and service revenue increasing by 12%. Gross margin is expected to remain around 46.9%, and earnings per share to reach $8.00. In a bullish scenario, an accelerated iPhone replacement cycle may drive higher revenue and earnings per share growth; in a bearish scenario, weakening demand and tariff pressures may lead to slower growth.