Guotai Haitong: Real estate sales peak season starts in September. Pay attention to the implementation of policies.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that it maintains a "buy" rating on the real estate industry. Considering the traditional peak season for marketing in September, the bank believes that it is highly probable that real estate companies will accelerate the pace of listing and increase discounts; in addition, core first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have already implemented favorable policies such as relaxing restrictions on home purchases, and Shenzhen is expected to follow suit. As the real estate industry enters the off-season and with the fourth quarter entering a high base period, the recommendation is to focus on the possibility of overseas interest rate cuts in September/domestic macroeconomic policy opening up space, as well as the implementation of policies related to urban renewal and land acquisition. The main points of Guotai Haitong are as follows: In August 2025, the year-on-year decline in sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises expanded According to data from the sales performance rankings released by Ke Rui in August 2025, the total sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies reached 2,070.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.1% compared to the same period in 2024, with the decline expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to July 2025; the equity amount reached 1,619.70 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.4% compared to the same period in 2024, with the decline expanding by 0.9 percentage points compared to July 2025, with an equity ratio of 78%. In August 2025, the total sales amount of the top 50 real estate companies reached 1,798.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.3% compared to the same period in 2024, with the decline narrowing by 0.03 percentage points compared to July 2025; the equity amount reached 1,375.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.6% compared to the same period in 2024, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to July 2025, with an equity ratio of 77%. Comparing the sales threshold for the top 1-10 real estate companies in August 2024 and August 2025, the sales threshold decreased by 4.3% to 56.1 billion yuan, the smallest decrease; the sales threshold for the top 51-100 companies saw the largest decrease, from 4.6 billion yuan to 3.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.9%. In August 2025, nearly 30% of the top 100 real estate companies saw year-on-year growth in monthly sales Looking at the monthly sales figures for August 2025, the highest performing company was GREENTOWN CHINA with 19.5 billion yuan, followed by China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings with 18.5 billion yuan, and CHINA RES LAND, Poly Developments and Holdings Group, and CHINA OVERSEAS had sales ranging from 11.9 billion to 17.8 billion yuan that month, C&D INTL GROUP, CHINA JINMAO, and China Vanke Co., Ltd. had sales ranging from 7.6 to 8.4 billion yuan. In terms of year-on-year growth in monthly sales for August 2025, 12 out of the top 50 companies achieved positive growth. Among them, the highest year-on-year growth rate was seen in Bontai Group at 215.5%, followed by Lianfa Group at 158.8%. On the list of declines, companies like China Communications Real Estate and Wuhan City Construction saw declines exceeding -55%. Compared to the same period in 2024, 15 out of the top 50 companies achieved positive growth in cumulative sales from January to August 2025. Among them, Seazen Holdings saw a year-on-year negative growth exceeding -50%. Risk Warning The risk of sluggish sales and an overall downturn in the industry.