Gold Climbs Above $3,600 to Record High as Central Bank Holdings Exceed U.S. Treasuries for First Time in 30 Years

On Tuesday, September 3, New York gold futures surged past $3,600 per ounce amid growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month and persistent buying by foreign central banks. Spot gold likewise reached a historic peak above $3,533 per ounce, underscoring the strength of the rally.

One of the principal drivers behind this unprecedented surge is the robust demand from global monetary authorities. Data compiled by Tavi Costa, partner and macro strategist at Crescat Capital, show that foreign central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasury securities for the first time since 1996. Costa described this milestone as potentially heralding “one of the most significant global rebalancing events in modern history.”

A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that a vast majority of central bank respondents anticipate further increases in their gold reserves over the next twelve months. This outlook, combined with markets pricing in a 90% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September 16–17 policy meeting, has amplified gold’s appeal as an asset.

The forthcoming U.S. nonfarm payroll report, due Friday, September 5, represents the last major data point before the Fed’s next decision. Should the figures disappoint, traders are likely to reinforce their bets on easier monetary policy. Lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, further supporting its price.

According to Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Pepperstone, renewed inflation concerns and confidence in the Federal Reserve’s imminent easing cycle have bolstered gold’s role as a barometer of market uncertainty. Year-to-date, gold futures have climbed roughly 36%, vastly outperforming the S&P 500’s 8% gain and Bitcoin’s 19% rise over the same period.

August saw gold advance more than 3.5%, extending a string of monthly gains that, as JC Parets of All Star Charts notes, is unprecedented since 1968. Parets attributes this momentum to exceptionally strong global demand—from central bank reserve accumulation to private-sector hedging against inflation and currency weakness.

Major Wall Street firms remain optimistic. UBS continues to project gold will reach $3,700 by mid-2026, with upside to $4,000 under heightened geopolitical or economic stress. Morgan Stanley has set a year-end target of $3,800, while Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of $4,000 by mid-2026, citing sustained central bank purchases and ETF inflows as fundamental supports.