Sinolink: Driven by both policies and markets, the solid-state battery market may see explosive demand in emerging fields.

Sinolink released a research report stating that the current solid-state battery industry is accelerating its development, with technological breakthroughs and commercialization processes progressing in sync. Semi-solid-state batteries have achieved large-scale application in vehicles. As for solid-state batteries, the sulfur/oxide electrolyte system has made key advancements, with various technological routes and preparation methods flourishing. With dual drivers of policy and market, China's solid-state battery market is expected to experience a demand explosion in emerging areas such as eVTOL, humanoid robots like Siasun Robot&Automation. Key points from Sinolink include: Focus on sulfur route for solid-state batteries Traditional lithium batteries face issues such as volatility, leakage, and flammability due to the use of organic liquid electrolytes. Replacing flammable organic electrolytes with non-flammable inorganic solid electrolytes can improve battery safety and increase energy density. Therefore, the development of solid-state batteries is a trend. Solid electrolytes are the core technology of solid-state lithium batteries, with sulfur and oxide currently being the mainstream technology routes. Sulfur exhibits high ionic conductivity and good mechanical properties at room temperature, offering the greatest potential for future development. According to China's industrial plan for sulfur solid-state batteries, by 2027, 3000 vehicles are expected to be equipped with sulfur solid-state batteries, achieving small-scale production. Oxide ion conductivity is moderate and stable, and structurally, oxide solid electrolytes can be divided into NASICON, garnet, perovskite, amorphous structures, with industrialization making continuous progress. Competitive advantage of lithium sulfide as core electrolyte material Purity parameters of lithium sulfide are crucial for the preparation of sulfur electrolytes, making it a core material in the sulfur route. From a technological standpoint, the advantages of the carbon thermal reduction, hydrazine reduction, and co-decomposition processes are evident, with industrial implementation entering the engineering validation stage. Judging from technological barriers and the current industry landscape, barriers for lithium sulfide are higher compared to sulfur electrolytes, with fewer battery manufacturers engaging in self-research. Costs are high due to lack of industrial scale, but as various routes mature, cost reduction capabilities will become clearer, leading to route convergence. Broad downstream market space driven by policy and technological demands Combined efforts from the policy and industrial sides are expected to mark a turning point for the solid-state battery industry's transition from early market development to rapid growth by 2027. The current policy environment has established a comprehensive support system of "central policy guidance + local pilot promotion". The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has expressed support for the solidification of lithium and sodium batteries, aiming to create 3-5 global leading enterprises by 2027. Looking at downstream industry deployments, several car makers plan to launch electric vehicles powered by solid-state batteries between 2025 and 2030. Multiple battery companies also plan to have over 2GW of solid-state battery production capacity by 2025. According to data from GGII and the China Industry Research Institute, solid-state battery shipments in China are estimated to reach 18GWh by 2027 and 30GWh by 2028. Expert predictions indicate that by 2027, solid-state batteries with specific energy of 400Wh/kg and a cycle life of more than 1,000 times will be able to achieve small-scale vehicle production, with mass production expected by 2030. Given the performance characteristics of solid-state batteries, applications with high demands for energy density and safety will have rigid requirements. The market space for solid-state batteries in areas such as eVTOL and humanoid robots like Siasun Robot&Automation is considerable. Risks include: slower than expected industrialization progress of solid-state batteries, underestimated material applications, competitive risks in route selection, material substitution due to technological iterations, worsening competitive landscape, significant fluctuations in raw material prices, delayed airworthiness certification, lower than expected eVTOL orders, lower than expected consumer acceptance of eVTOL, safety risks in eVTOL products, etc.