Boeing (BA.US) Nears Landmark Deal to Sell Up to 500 Aircraft to China, Signaling Possible End to Years of Sales Freeze

August 21 — Boeing (BA.US) is reportedly nearing completion of a significant aircraft sale to China, potentially involving up to 500 planes, according to individuals familiar with the discussions. If finalized, the deal would mark the end of a lengthy pause in sales that began after President Donald Trump’s state visit to China in 2017.

Negotiations remain active, with both parties working through detailed terms such as aircraft types, total volume, and delivery schedules. Chinese regulators have initiated consultations with domestic carriers to evaluate demand. The scale of the proposed purchase is said to resemble a similarly sized, though undisclosed, 500-plane agreement with Airbus SE.

News of the potential deal boosted Boeing’s stock, which rose as much as 3.7% in pre-market trading on Thursday and was up 1.3% at the time of reporting. Under CEO Kelly Ortberg’s leadership, Boeing shares have gained 27% year-to-date, reflecting broader organizational changes.

This prospective order is expected to play a key role in a wider trade framework between China and the United States, echoing a similar arrangement that nearly materialized in 2023. Adding complexity to the situation is a leadership change within Boeing’s China operations. Alvin Liu has recently stepped down from his role as head of Boeing China, with Carol Shen reportedly stepping in as interim president. Boeing has declined to comment on both the executive transition and the ongoing negotiations.

Since President Trump’s return to office in January, aircraft procurement has become a central element of U.S. trade strategy. Several countries have announced new contracts, preliminary commitments, or reaffirmed existing orders with American aerospace firms, contributing to efforts aimed at narrowing trade deficits.

Multiple rounds of bilateral negotiations have led to a gradual easing of tariffs, which previously peaked at 145%, although a comprehensive trade agreement has yet to be reached. A potential meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents may occur in late October, ahead of the APEC summit in South Korea.

For China, securing production slots with Boeing and Airbus is a strategic imperative, as both manufacturers are heavily booked through the 2030s. Boeing forecasts that China’s commercial aircraft fleet—the second largest globally—will more than double over the next 20 years, reaching 9,755 aircraft.

The National Development and Reform Commission of China has recently sought feedback from domestic airlines regarding fleet expansion plans. Current discussions appear to center on Boeing’s 737 Max series, suggesting that preparations for a large-scale order are underway.

Boeing’s last major deal with China was announced in November 2017 during Trump’s initial state visit, involving commitments for 300 single- and twin-aisle aircraft valued at USD 37 billion. In 2018, deliveries to China peaked, accounting for one-quarter of Boeing’s global output.

However, since 2019, Airbus has taken the lead in the Chinese market following regulatory action that grounded the 737 Max after two fatal accidents. Boeing’s website indicates that only 30 aircraft orders have been placed by Chinese airlines and leasing companies since early 2019.

In a January interview, Ortberg expressed confidence that ongoing negotiations would eventually bear fruit. “We certainly hope there will be opportunities to secure more orders from China next year,” he said.