JP Morgan is cautiously optimistic about the future of stablecoins, estimating that the market size in 2028 will only be $500 billion.

JPMorgan Chase predicted last week that the size of the stablecoin market will only grow to $500 billion by 2028. The bank stated that the forecast for the stablecoin market to grow to $1 trillion is overly optimistic, as there is currently little evidence to suggest that USD-backed crypto tokens have been widely adopted. Stablecoins are a type of special cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value, usually pegged 1:1 to the US dollar and backed by physical assets such as US treasuries or gold. The application of stablecoins is no longer limited to the cryptocurrency trading field, attracting the attention of fintech companies and banks seeking to speed up payment and settlement processes. This has also drawn close attention from US lawmakers, with the US Senate passing the GENIUS Act last month. Analysts believe this is a key step towards achieving the long-awaited regulatory clarity. Before the passage of this act, Standard Chartered Bank had predicted that the stablecoin market could reach $2 trillion by 2028. Investment bank Bernstein, in a report released on June 30th, predicted that the supply of stablecoins could grow to around $4 trillion over the next decade. However, JPMorgan Chase pointed out that the adoption of stablecoins in the payment sector is still very limited, accounting for only 6% of total demand, around $15 billion. The bank estimates that the current size of the stablecoin market is $250 billion, with most of it still focused on cryptocurrency trading, decentralized finance (DeFi), and collateral. The bank stated, "The idea of stablecoins replacing traditional currencies as everyday payment tools is still far from reality." The promotion of stablecoins outside of the cryptocurrency market still faces obstacles, mainly due to limited application scenarios and fragmented regulatory systems. At the same time, international adoption is also limited, as most countries are focusing on promoting their own digital currencies or strengthening existing payment systems. It is worth noting that the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has previously warned that stablecoins could weaken monetary sovereignty, lack transparency, and exacerbate risks of capital outflows in emerging markets.