Hong Kong Q2 Business Survey: Only 9% of companies expect improvement, real estate industry remains a rare bright spot.

On April 25, the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department released the results of the Quarterly Survey of Business Tendency 2025 for the second quarter. In general, the proportion of respondents who expected better business conditions in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter (9%) was lower than those who expected worse conditions (18%). A government spokesperson stated that based on an earlier survey, large enterprises showed a relatively stable outlook for the short-term business prospects and hiring intentions for the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter. Business Conditions In terms of the industries covered in the survey, the proportion of respondents who expected better business conditions in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter (9%) was lower than those who expected worse conditions (18%). Compared to the results of the first quarter survey of 2025, the proportion of respondents who expected better business conditions in the second quarter of 2025 was 9%, which was roughly the same as the corresponding proportion in the first quarter of 2025. At the same time, the proportion of respondents expecting worse business conditions decreased slightly from 19% in the first quarter of 2025 to 18% in the second quarter of 2025. In terms of industry analysis, overall, in most industries covered, respondents expected worse business conditions in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2025. Particularly in the accommodation and food services industry, as well as the transportation, warehousing, and courier services industry, there were significantly more respondents who expected worse business conditions in the second quarter of 2025. The survey was conducted from March 4, 2025, to April 10, 2025. Respondents' opinions may be influenced by various events in society during the survey period, and it is difficult to determine the extent to which respondents' views align with underlying trends. Business Output Overall, in all industries covered, respondents expected a decrease or roughly the same business output in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2025. Particularly in the accommodation and food services industry, there were significantly more respondents who expected a decrease in business output in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2025. Employment In most industries covered, respondents expected a decrease or roughly the same number of employees in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2025. Particularly in the accommodation and food services industry and the construction industry, more respondents expected a decrease in the number of employees in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2025. However, in the real estate industry, there were more respondents who expected an increase in the number of employees compared to those who expected a decrease. Goods Prices/Service Fees Overall, in most industries covered, respondents expected the prices of goods/services to remain roughly the same in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2025. However, in the construction and accommodation and food services industries, significantly more respondents expected a decrease in bid prices/service fees/price of food provided in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2025. The Hong Kong spokesperson pointed out that the survey mainly collected the views of businesses before the trade friction escalated significantly due to the United States' substantial increase in import tariffs in early April. Looking ahead, with the rising risks and uncertainties in the global economy, the business environment is expected to face pressure. The Hong Kong government has been providing support to businesses from various aspects and will continue to closely monitor the situation.