When the world is engulfed in a new round of tariff games, the probability of recession in the United States is equivalent to "flipping a coin."

The latest survey report from Bloomberg shows that prominent economists consulted and interviewed believe that the global trade war initiated by the Trump administration has had an impact. They generally believe that in the new round of global trade games and the so-called "trade policy tug-of-war" that the US has entangled with major global economic powers such as China, the EU, and Canada due to US tariff policies, the probability of the US entering an economic recession in the next 12 months has increased from 30% in March to 45%. This also means that the probability of the US economy entering a recession is almost like flipping a coin. The new global trade war ignited by Trump's tariff policies has dimmed the prospects for US and global economic growth. Economists predict that the global trade war launched by US President Donald Trump will raise global prices, weaken consumer spending, and impact US and global economic growth this year and next. According to a compilation of the latest survey results from economists by Bloomberg, the US economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, compared to 2% and 1.9% in the previous month's survey. The median among respondents now shows a 45% probability of the US entering an economic recession in the next 12 months, compared to 30% in the March survey. According to well-known research firm BCA Research on Wall Street, the probability of the US economy entering a recession has exceeded 50%, while JPMorgan predicts a 60% chance of a US economic recession. Economists now believe that the probability of the US entering a recession within a year is 45%. The Trump administration's decision to impose staggering tariffs of up to 145% on China (one of America's top three trading partners) and at least 10% tariffs on most other countries has led many forecasters to warn of a sharp slowdown in the global economy, with some even predicting a deep economic recession in the US this year. This is in part because families in the US, facing continued inflation pressures since 2022, may see a sharp decline in demand, with some families barely making ends meet, and family demand or consumption accounting for about two-thirds of US GDP. Procter & Gamble stated in its earnings report on Friday that tariff policies will significantly increase raw materials and packaging costs, mainly due to the rising trend in commodity prices driven by tariff pressure and the large-scale imports of certain raw materials from the Chinese market. US consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble stated on Thursday that it is difficult to transfer its product raw material and packaging procurement businesses from China even under the high tariffs imposed by Trump; therefore, Procter & Gamble management stated that it can only raise prices for some products to compensate for the impact of Trump's tariff policy on its product costs. "To achieve stronger growth, we need to quickly resolve trade disputes and rebuild confidence in US policy making," said Brett Ryan, senior economist for the US markets at Deutsche Bank. Although the Trump administration earlier this month implemented a 90-day extension on some of the toughest "equal tariffs," during which time the benchmark tariffs for most countries other than China were adjusted to 10%, according to Bloomberg's economic research team, the "effective tariff rate" in the US is currently close to 23% - the highest level in over a century. This has already caused significant shocks to US consumer and business confidence. Economists significantly lower their expectations for US GDP growth in 2025. In recent days, there has been a rare phenomenon in the US financial markets called the "stock-bond-dollar triple kill," mainly because of the huge uncertainty in holding US dollar assets by global funds due to the macroeconomic uncertainties caused by Trump's tariff policies, as well as the threat to the Fed's independence by the Trump administration seeking to remove Powell and the substantial cuts, in addition to most investors betting that Trump's aggressive import tariff policy will lead to a re-emergence of inflation, which could lead to US consumers, who have been struggling due to high inflation in recent years, further cutting spending. Consumer confidence data from the University of Michigan shows that the consumer confidence index has hit its lowest level since the peak of inflation in June 2022, with consumers' expectations of inflation a year from now reaching their highest level since 1981. A survey of consumer expectations conducted by the New York Fed in March showed that consumer confidence in their future financial conditions worsened further, with the percentage of respondents who believed that their families' financial conditions would be worse off in a year rising to 30.0%, the highest since October 2023; and the percentage of respondents who believed they might become unemployed in the next 12 months increased by 1.6 percentage points to 15.7%, a new high since March 2024. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly lowered its global economic growth forecast this week and warned that if US tariffs remain unchanged, there will be a chain of negative effects globally. Economists now expect US businesses to increase imports at an annualized rate of 19.2% in the first quarter, as they rush to bring goods into the United States before higher tariffs take effect. They have also revised down their import estimates to 2027. Forecasters also expect the scale of US exports to be lower before 2026. Countries, including China, have retaliated against US products with punitive tariffs, which will raise the costs of these goods and may lead to a significant decline in US overseas demand. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the preliminary GDP for the first quarter on April 30. Economists expect the market to pay more attention to the inflation measure index, the "Personal Consumption Expenditures Index" (also known as the PCE price index), which is expected to reach 3.2% by the end of 2025, higher than the 2.7% in the March survey. In addition, economists expect the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the so-called "core PCE inflation rate" (which excludes food and energy from the core PCE), to reach 3.3%. Economists generally expect the US core PCE inflation rate to rise. "Inflation is expected to rise, but not to the extreme levels of 2022," said economists Bill Adams and Varun Bajaj from Comerica Bank."Waran Bhahirethan" indicates. "Since the significant increase in tariffs, the Federal Reserve has been warning that the threshold for lowering interest rates in the event of rising inflation is higher than traditional economic shocks, because traditional economic shocks typically suppress both demand and prices simultaneously. The economic impact of the current round of tariffs could potentially keep inflation high, thus constraining Federal Reserve policy space."The expected unemployment rate in the United States is higher than in previous surveys. The overall performance of the U.S. labor market is still considered robust in the short term. Economists generally expect U.S. employers to add an average of 72,000 and 100,000 jobs per month this year and next year, respectively. However, they anticipate that layoffs may exceed expectations due to inflationary pressures caused by tariffs, leading to a decrease in market demand. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.6% by the end of 2025, higher than the 4.3% shown in the March survey. If signs of a recession in the U.S. economy become more apparent, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates for the first time in 2025 will also increase significantly. Therefore, labor market-related data such as initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate are crucial for investors to assess the health of the U.S. economy. If both sets of data significantly exceed expectations in the short term, it may indicate that the U.S. economy is starting to enter a recession, and the Fed may initiate a new round of interest rate cuts. "If the economic slowdown is severe, or even potentially leading to a recession, I expect the FOMC to support faster and larger cuts in the Fed policy rate," said Eric Rosengren, a Fed Governor with voting rights on the FOMC. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated in an interview on Thursday that while a rate cut in May is unlikely, if the economic data in June provides a clear and convincing direction, the Fed may take action at the next meeting. The Bloomberg survey was conducted from April 18 to 23 and received responses from 82 economists worldwide.