CITIC SEC: All-solid-state batteries expected to be installed in vehicles by 2027, seize investment opportunities in batteries, materials, equipment, and resources.

CITIC SEC released a research report stating that since 2024, leading battery manufacturers, vehicle manufacturers, and experts have gradually converged on the expectations for the deployment of solid-state batteries. It is expected that in 2027, there will be small-scale/demonstration deployment, and by 2030, there will be large-scale production. The deployment milestones are clear, and the market will gradually form a consensus. The technical roadmap is clear, with lithium battery equipment leading the way and opening up new lithium resources. Looking at the important catalyzing factors in the solid-state battery industry in 2025, it is believed that 2025 will be a crucial year for the gradual clarity and convergence of the solid-state technology roadmap. It is recommended to seize investment opportunities in related industries, including batteries, materials, equipment, and resources. The convergence of solid-state battery deployment is expected to occur by 2027, with a gradual consensus forming. Contemporary Amperex Technology stated at the CIBF in April 2024 that small-scale production of solid-state batteries could be achieved by 2027. BYD Company Limited's battery CTO, Sun Huajun, stated at the CASIP annual conference on February 15, 2025, that BYD's solid-state batteries will be demonstrated in bulk in 2027 and will achieve large-scale commercial use by 2030. At an electric vehicle conference on February 25, 2025, Academician Ouyang Minggao stated that solid-state batteries are expected to be deployed in bulk by 2027 and will be mass-produced for installation by 2030. Based on this, the industry's timeline for deploying solid-state batteries is converging towards 2027, with expectations for large-scale commercial use by 2030. CITIC SEC believes that the market will gradually form a consensus, with bulk demonstration installations in 2027 indicating a clearer technical roadmap. This includes a shift from single sulfides to a mix of sulfur and halides. Additionally, the deployment of installations will lead to increased demand for lithium battery equipment and resources. On the materials side: Solid-state electrolyte leads, focusing on the intersecting points of industries benefiting from solid-state batteries. It is expected that there will be two main trends in materials: 1) A new increment of solid-state electrolyte segments: the roadmap gradually taking shape, industrialization on the horizon. Previous markets tended to view oxide, polymer, and sulfide routes as trends. In reality, both solid-state batteries produced by Amperex Technology and Qingdao Energy use oxides as electrolytes. Leading global companies like BYD and Toyota focus on solid-state battery production routes that emphasize sulfides. At the CASIP conference in February 2025, experts such as Sun Xueliang, and companies like First Automobile Works and CALB proposed the use of halide solid-state electrolytes independently or in combination. CITIC SEC believes that the electrolyte routes will gradually take shape in their respective scenarios, with industrialization being the next step; 2) Common material segments benefiting from the beta of the solid-state battery industry: conductive agents, silicon anodes, semi-solid-state separators, etc. Carbon nanotubes, high-end conductive carbon black, and other conductive agents can be used to improve the fast-charging performance and cycle life of solid-state batteries, addressing important issues in solid-state batteries. CITIC SEC expects carbon nanotubes and conductive carbon black to see higher usage or product upgrades in solid-state batteries, bringing about growth with increasing quantity and price. Silicon anodes offer high energy density and fast-charging capabilities, making them a mainstream choice for solid-state batteries. For example, NIO's 150 kWh semi-solid-state battery uses a silicon carbon anode (according to NIO's official WeChat account). In 2024, vivo released two semi-solid-state battery smartphones, both using silicon anodes (according to vivo's press conference). Semi-solid-state batteries still use separators, while solid-state electrolytes are formed by coating or filling. Separators are crucial carriers that will benefit from the industrialization and scale-up of semi-solid-state batteries. Considering the difficulty of forming solid-state electrolytes into separate membranes, CITIC SEC predicts that supporting membrane materials will also have opportunities in solid-state batteries. On the equipment side: The fundamentals have bottomed out and are signaling a turnaround, with solid-state batteries driving incremental equipment demand. 1) The fundamentals of the lithium battery equipment sector have bottomed out: Top lithium battery equipment manufacturers are expected to see a dual turnaround in orders and performance in 2025. In terms of orders, as downstream leading battery manufacturers gradually increase production capacity domestically and accelerate overseas capacity deployment, combined with increased demand for battery production capacity from overseas local battery factories and vehicle manufacturers, CITIC SEC expects a significant increase in lithium battery equipment bidding demand this year. In terms of performance, after substantial impairment charges in the financial statements of 2023 and 2024, top lithium battery equipment manufacturers are expected to perform well in 2025 and, with the improvement in the acceptance rhythm of orders on hand, CITIC SEC predicts that the performance of top lithium battery equipment manufacturers will be relatively elastic in 2025. 2) Solid-state batteries bring about incremental demand for equipment: The manufacturing process of semi-solid-state batteries is similar to that of liquid batteries, mainly resulting in the need for equipment upgrades, while the manufacturing process of solid-state batteries is expected to undergo more changes, potentially driving a new round of large-scale investment in lithium battery equipment. For a detailed analysis of solid-state battery processes and equipment, one can refer to the previous report by CITIC SEC's mechanical team titled "Deep Dive Report on Solid-State Battery Equipment in the Machinery Industry: Exploring New Investment Opportunities in Solid-State Battery Processes and Equipment" (2025-2-10). With the increasing attention of national policies and the industry chain on solid-state batteries, 2027 is expected to be a clearer point in time for the small-scale production and demonstration installation of solid-state batteries. In this context, it is expected that the next two years will be a period of rapid breakthroughs and development in solid-state battery processes and equipment, with the long-term perspective indicating an investment logic of increasing quantity and price for core solid-state battery equipment. On the resources side: (1) The rapid industrialization of oxide routes is expected to drive growth in demand for zirconium. The garnet-type solid oxide electrolyte is currently the most mature oxide electrolyte, and zirconium oxide, a key raw material for oxide electrolytes, is expected to benefit from this trend. CITIC SEC predicts that by 2030, global demand for zirconium oxide in the field of solid-state electrolytes is expected to reach 78,000 tons, which is 395 times the demand in 2023. (2) Progress in the industrialization of sulfide and metallic lithium anodes is expected to double the consumption of lithium. On February 24, 2025, Mercedes-Benz launched a road test of a sulfide solid-state battery, marking the world's first deployment.The use of lithium metal anodes on mass-produced vehicles platforms. On February 27th, Japan's Umicore announced the construction of a lithium sulfide production line, with the potential to supply 3GWh of lithium sulfide electrolyte for solid-state batteries by 2030. The demand for lithium in lithium sulfide solid-state batteries with lithium metal anodes is 1455 tons LCE/GWh, 2.4 times that of traditional lithium batteries. The recent industrialization progress of lithium metal and lithium sulfide proves the feasibility of the above solution, potentially driving lithium resource demand and related lithium material shipment volumes to exceed expectations.Outlook on major events in the solid-state battery industry after 2025: 1) In March, Hyundai Motor Company publicly unveils its full solid-state production line. According to Electrek, Hyundai completed the construction of the experimental line for its "dream battery" in January 2025 and plans to showcase and start production in March, with a prototype car expected to be launched by the end of 2025. 2) In April, the Shanghai Auto Show. According to the official website of the Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition, the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show will be held from April 23 to May 3. Based on past experience, the auto show is an important platform for the release of information on solid-state batteries, as seen in the release of solid-state batteries by Contemporary Amperex Technology at the 2023 Shanghai Auto Show. The 2025 Shanghai Auto Show is highly anticipated. 3) In Q2 2025, SAIC's MG brand will equip its new models with semi-solid-state batteries. According to a disclosure at a media briefing for the new generation MG5 in September 2024, SAIC Passenger Car's Executive Vice President Yu Jingmin revealed that MG products with solid-state batteries will be launched in Q2 2025. According to a Weibo post by MG's sales manager Zhou Xin in December 2024, the first new car of MG in 2025 will come equipped with semi-solid-state batteries, with mentions of being "standard equipment" and "not expensive." CITIC SEC believes that this model will debut in Q2 2025 and, given its standard features and affordable price range, is likely to become the world's first semi-solid-state battery model with high delivery volume.