Cui Dongshu: Policy-driven production and sales effects are obvious. In December 2024, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.51 million vehicles, surpassing the highest historical level.

On January 20th, Cui Dongshu stated in his article that the December 2024 wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.51 million units, with a year-on-year growth rebounding to 37%, which was a strong performance. Compared to the growth rate at the beginning of the year, this was a super strong increase, with a 5% increase in December compared to November. Wholesale growth from September to December showed a significant improvement compared to the period from March to August, reflecting the clear effects of policy stimulation on production and sales. The Chinese car market's retail sales in 2024 showed a strong performance in the first half of the year, driven in part by an earlier Chinese New Year. The domestic new energy vehicle landscape in 2024 saw intense changes, with traditional car companies like BYD Company Limited, Geely, and Chery showing increasingly prominent effects, especially in the mid-to-low-end market segment. Emerging companies like Xiaopeng, NIO, and Li Xiang performed relatively well, while traditional car companies like Wuling, Geely, and Changan showed strong growth in new energy vehicles in December. 1. Strong wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in December 2024 Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in December 2024 reached 1.51 million units, surpassing historical highs. Due to the Chinese New Year and pricing disruptions, the trend of new energy vehicles in January and February 2024 was weaker. Market growth gradually recovered from March to August, with a significant month-on-month increase from September to December driven by policy subsidies, consistently breaking monthly sales records. Since 2023, the prices of power batteries have been declining due to the fall of raw materials such as lithium and nickel. The lower sales volume at the beginning of 2024 was advantageous for companies to reduce production at the beginning of the year, clear historical inventory, and start achieving continuous growth in sales of new products from March. In December, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.51 million units, with a year-on-year growth rebounding to 37%, showing a strong performance. December saw a rapid 5% increase compared to the previous month. The wholesale growth from September to December showed a significant improvement compared to the period from March to August, indicating a clear effect of policy stimulation on production and sales. 2. Wholesale penetration of full Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation The penetration rate of manufacturers wholesale of new energy vehicles in December was 49%, an 8 percentage point increase from December 2023's 41%. The penetration rate of manufacturers wholesale of new energy vehicles in December was 49.2%, an 11 percentage point increase from December 2023. The penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles was 67% in December; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury cars was 36%; while the mainstream joint venture brand new energy vehicles had a penetration rate of only 4.3%. In December, wholesale sales of traditional car manufacturers decreased by 2% year-on-year, while retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 57% year-on-year, with a difference of 59 percentage points in growth rates, indicating significant pressure on fuel vehicles. 3. Strong retail sales growth of new energy vehicles in December 2024 The December 2024 market retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.3 million units, showing strong growth from August to December and setting new monthly highs for five consecutive months. The effects of the Beijing license plate issuance from May to July were evident, with some price-watching groups beginning to purchase new vehicles. The policy effects of scrappage and renewal starting in August gradually became apparent, with higher subsidies for low-priced new energy models increasing enthusiasm for purchasing new energy vehicles. Overall annual sales trend: From 2020 to 2024, the annual retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles showed a year-on-year upward trend, increasing from 1.11 million units in 2020 to 10.9 million units in 2024, reflecting a significant growth rate and the continuous expansion of the new energy passenger vehicle market. January-February: Sales performance during this period varied from year to year, with low sales and negative year-on-year growth in 2020 (50,000 units, down 63%), followed by gradual increases each year, reaching 1.06 million units in 2024 with a 38% year-on-year growth rate, indicating increasing market activity at the beginning of the year. March-August: Sales during this period also increased year by year, from 430,000 units in 2020 to 4.95 million units in 2024, with most years maintaining a certain level of year-on-year positive growth, reflecting the continued development of the market and steady growth in demand during this period. September-December: Similar trends in sales showed an upward trend, with 620,000 units in 2020 and 4.89 million units in 2024, with substantial year-on-year growth in most years, indicating high market activity towards the end of the year and strong consumer demand. 4. Characteristics of new energy passenger vehicles The proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles in the private market has been steadily increasing recently, while demand for plug-in hybrids in rental and leasing sectors continues to decline, reaching only 3%. Pure electric vehicles remain the preferred choice for rental and leasing. In December, the proportion of rental and leasing of plug-in hybrids was only 4%, a significant decrease from the first half of the year. 5. Regional market performance is gradually improving The recent strong performance of new energy passenger vehicles mainly comes from breakthroughs in the northern regional market, with an increase in new energy market share in the Northwest, Northeast, North China, and Southwest regions. The incremental demand for plug-in hybrids has driven the electrification transformation in markets with lower consumer purchasing power. 6. Urban and rural market performance is gradually improving In recent years, the demand for new energy passenger vehicles has been mainly strong in mega-cities subject to purchase restrictions, but this trend has been declining recently. Excluding purchase restrictions in mega-cities, the proportion of pure electric new energy passenger vehicles in mega-cities in 2024 decreased by 4 percentage points compared to 2023, indicating a slowdown in the growth rate of new energy vehicle market sales in mega-cities, constrained by overall vehicle and population size. With a large population base and poor public transportation, demand in medium-sized cities has been strong recently, with small towns and rural markets gradually opening up for new energy vehicles. 7. Regional penetration rate of pure electric passenger vehicles in December The proportion of pure electric vehicles in restricted cities has remained stable, increasing from 26% in December 2021 to 35% in 2024. However, due to a decline in pure electric vehicles in Shanghai, the performance of pure electric vehicles in restricted cities was average. In cities without restrictions, the sales proportion of pure electric vehicles in large cities, medium-sized cities, and small cities is almost the same, with an increase in the proportion in medium-sized cities to 27% in December and the penetration rate in rural markets reaching 23%. 8. Regional penetration rate of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles in December The penetration rate of plug-in hybrids in various markets across the country continues to increase, especially in mega-cities, where the market share of plug-in hybrids reached 19% in December 2024. In medium-sized cities, the market demand for plug-in hybrids is also increasing significantly from previous years.In small city markets, the proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles is continuously increasing, and the penetration rate of plug-in hybrids between various cities is relatively narrowing. Due to the impact of the plug-in hybrid license policy, Shanghai's plug-in hybrids only accounted for 9% in December, an increase of 4% from last year, still the lowest in the country.9. Monthly Sales Trends of New Energy Vehicles in Various Provinces Sales trends in the regional market are diverging, with rapid growth in some provinces in the central and western regions, showing strong performance. 10. Market Trends in Beijing The market trend for new energy vehicles in Beijing in 2024 is relatively stable, with sales reaching 34,000 units in December 2024, at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, with license plate quotas fully utilized. Since the relatively tight new energy vehicle quotas in 2018, the market trend for new energy vehicles in Beijing has diverged from the national trend in 2022, with current growth rates being lower. Some users who purchased cars in 2018 should consider replacing their vehicles, but the overall market volume is still not high due to the impact of the restrained consumption caused by the pace of quota issuance. The sales of new energy vehicles in Beijing in the second half of last year were good, considering the lack of quotas and the limited supply of Tesla vehicles. The performance in December was relatively strong. The overall level of new energy vehicles in Beijing is practical, reflecting good household demand. 11. Market Trends for New Energy Vehicles in Shanghai The market trends for new policies in Shanghai contrast sharply with those in Beijing, showing extreme stability from 2019 to 2021. In December 2022, there was a rush to buy at the end of the year, leading to a lingering downturn at the beginning of the year, with a significant decline in early 2024 sales. The impact of Shanghai's own policies at the end of 2024 was minimal. In December 2024, sales of new energy vehicles in Shanghai reached 44,000 units, a 23% decrease from December last year. The impact of policy adjustments on Shanghai's new energy vehicles from last year is gradually recovering, with the rush to buy due to the tightening of license plate policies having a significant impact on the early Shanghai market. The market is gradually recovering in recent months. 12. Market Trends for New Energy Passenger Vehicles in Restricted Cities The performance of new energy vehicles in restricted cities is relatively strong, reaching 321,000 units in December 2024, with a good growth rate of 41%. The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in 2024 reached 2.65 million units, showing continuous growth in demand for new energy vehicles in restricted cities. 13. Market Trends for New Energy Passenger Vehicles in Unrestricted Cities Non-restricted cities, where conventional vehicles are not subject to restrictions on purchase or use. Since traditional vehicles are not restricted, the demand for new energy vehicles in these cities reflects genuine market demand. Currently, non-restricted cities are also experiencing relatively rapid growth, with sales of new energy vehicles reaching high levels. In 2022, sales of new energy vehicles in non-restricted cities reached 2.73 million units, showing a strong growth rate of 96%. The performance of new energy vehicles in non-restricted cities was excellent, with sales of 4.06 million units in 2023 and a strong performance with sales of 6.38 million units from January to December 2024, showing a growth rate of 57%.