HK Stock Market Move | TRIP.COM-S (09961) rose more than 4% with high certainty of increased consumption for the Spring Festival travel. Inbound tourism business may serve as a strong catalyst for the company.

TRIP.COM-S (09961) rose over 4%, as of the time of writing, it had risen by 3.99%, trading at 534.5 Hong Kong dollars, with a turnover of 2.55 billion Hong Kong dollars. On the news side, CITIC SEC pointed out that the certainty of increased travel consumption during the 2025 Chinese New Year is high, although price gaps still exist but are showing convergence. According to the Ministry of Transport and Flight Manager, the Spring Festival railway and civil aviation passenger traffic are expected to increase by 5.5%+ and 10.9% respectively, both reaching historical highs, laying the foundation for the consumption of the Spring Festival travel season. Looking ahead to 2025, taking into account the expected rebound in demand under policy communication, as well as the positive promotion of industry supply improvement, attention should be paid to the price inflection point in the process of supply and demand rebalancing, recommending the allocation of OTA sectors with strong fundamental certainty. A recent research report by Daiwa Securities pointed out that the market share of Ctrip's overseas platform, Trip.com, has been continuously increasing since 2024. It is expected that China's latest visa-free policy will continue to bring inbound tourism opportunities to the company, with current forecasts predicting that Ctrip's inbound tourism revenue in 2025 will double and account for approximately 28% of Trip.com's income and about 4% of the group's overall revenue, believing that the development of inbound tourism business can become a strong catalyst. The firm reiterates a "buy" rating for Ctrip Group, raising revenue and earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2026 by 0.2% to 1.2% to reflect the enhanced contribution of inbound tourism revenue, raising the target price from 675 Hong Kong dollars to 780 Hong Kong dollars. Daiwa continues to list Ctrip as one of its top stock picks.