Goldman Sachs: California wildires, while tragic, only have a "slight drag" on U.S. employment.

In a research report, Goldman Sachs pointed out that although the deadly wildfires in Los Angeles County are one of the most devastating natural disasters in American history, their impact on US job growth may only be a "slight drag". Led by Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs economists predict that the growth in non-farm employment in the January jobs report will decrease by about 15,000-25,000 people. This forecast is partly based on the fact that only about 0.5% of California's population is currently under evacuation orders or warnings. Economists further analyzed the situation of unemployment insurance claims. They noted that timely replacement data shows that there has not been a significant increase in online searches for unemployment benefits since the fires occurred. Based on this, they expect the number of initial unemployment claims on Thursday to decrease again. In addition, Goldman estimates that the wildfires will cause a decrease of about 0.2 percentage points in first-quarter GDP growth. This estimate does not yet include the offsetting effects that typically occur rapidly after wildfires in terms of rebuilding. Regarding inflation, economists expect that insurance costs will not have a "significant impact" on inflation. It is understood that the wildfire has burned over 29,000 acres of land, causing at least 5 deaths. Nearly 180,000 people have been forced to evacuate their homes, and at least 10,000 buildings have been destroyed or damaged. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase stated that the wildfire is expected to result in $20 billion in insurance losses, highlighting the severity of this disaster.