Tianfeng Real Estate's 2025 annual strategy: The process of reducing housing inventory will deepen, and the market share of national SOEs will continue to increase.

Tianfeng issued a research report stating that looking ahead to 2025, with the judgment that there is still a slight downward space in sales, it is highly probable that real estate companies will continue to follow the strategy of "sales determine investment", and the investment side may also weaken. With the deepening process of destocking by real estate companies, it is not ruled out that there may be an increase in marginal investment intensity, and the market share of state-owned enterprises will continue to increase. At the same time, attention should be paid to the potential expectation difference after the logic chain of "credit repair -> business recovery -> performance improvement" by market participants. Tianfeng's main points are as follows: Policy: Changes in priority demands lead to a shift in tone The development of new models is still the top-level institutional design idea and goal. The Central Real Estate Increment Statement in 2024 pointed out the direction of efforts around the introduction of monetary, fiscal, and industrial policies, emphasizing the industry's new medium- to long-term development goals, which indirectly reflect the "urgency" of policy demands in the short and long term. Industry: Entering the second half of the cycle In the process of not following the old path of "raising prices to destock" and seeking a new balance in a market-oriented manner, it is difficult to avoid price reassessment. In this round of destocking cycle, it is objectively facing factors such as the slowdown of economic growth and weak medium- to long-term demand support. Traditional policy control measures are inadequate, and the government currently supplements them with credit and fiscal measures to assist in the destocking through active supply consumption. Enterprise: Clearing capacity and risks, transforming strategies and models Looking ahead to 2025, with the judgment that there is still a slight downward space in sales, it is highly probable that real estate companies will continue to follow the strategy of "sales determine investment", and the investment side may also weaken. With the deepening process of destocking by real estate companies, it is not ruled out that there may be an increase in marginal investment intensity, and the market share of state-owned enterprises will continue to increase. Attention should also be paid to the potential expectation difference after the logic chain of "credit repair -> business recovery -> performance improvement" by market participants. Valuation: From beta to alpha trading The repair of the discount is the main theme of short-term valuation derivation. In the process of gradually finding the bottom prices and eliminating trend divergences, the marginal returns brought by high-frequency policy games may gradually decrease. The differentiated exploration of the cross-cycle operational capabilities of enterprises may become a new market focus, transitioning gradually from trading beta to trading alpha. Risk Warning: Sales improvement falls short of expectations; policy implementation falls short of expectations; price declines exceed expectations.