Ping An Securities: It is expected that the "Harris trade" may become one of the main themes in overseas markets in the short term.

2)1) The two sides tied. 2) In terms of congressional elections, according to the 270 To Win data, as of September 11th, the Republican Party is slightly ahead in the House of Representatives (208 seats for the Republicans vs. 206 seats for the Democrats), and also in the Senate (50 seats for the Republicans vs. 48 seats for the Democrats), meaning that the market expects a higher probability of the Republican Party winning both houses.The opening and sustainability of the "Harris Trade" depend on the market's expectations of Harris' probability of winning and the probability of policy implementation. In the short term, Harris maintains a lead in the polls, leading overseas markets to potentially start the "Harris Trade": In the U.S. stock market, Harris' tax increase policy will actually be unfavorable for U.S. stock profits, but will likely benefit sectors such as new energy. Compared to Trump's tax cut policy that boosted U.S. stock profits, the overall impact of the "Harris Trade" may not be favorable for U.S. stocks, but certain sectors such as new energy supported by her policies and the media and technology sectors funded by her election campaign are likely to benefit. On the other hand, traditional energy, pharmaceuticals (due to Harris' advocacy for universal healthcare and lowering drug prices), and other sectors may see a more obvious negative impact. In the U.S. bond market, Harris' anti-inflation policy is more comprehensive. Unlike Trump's policy that led to an increase in long-term bond yields due to deficits and high inflation, Harris' policy may have a smaller overall impact on long-term bond yields and may be more influenced by short-term interest rate cuts. Harris' anti-inflation policy focuses on reducing the cost of living for the people, which may lead to more controlled inflation and a smaller impact on bond yields, with short-term trends possibly more influenced by the extent of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In terms of the U.S. dollar, under the "Harris Trade," the performance of the dollar may be more moderate or even slightly decline, compared to the strong dollar trend under the "Trump Trade," but it is not likely to significantly weaken. Trump's MAGA policies and a weak dollar are somewhat contradictory, and with his dual loose fiscal and monetary policies, the U.S. fundamentals have some support, with inflation and trade wars tending to support the dollar. Harris' policies have lower stimulus for inflation and trade wars, leading to a more moderate or slightly declining dollar performance, but given the resilience of the U.S. economy, a significant weakening of the dollar is unlikely. As for gold, under the "Harris Trade," the price of gold may show a more neutral performance, driven more by interest rate cuts rather than the hedging demand for high inflation and geopolitical risks seen under the "Trump Trade".