Minsheng Securities: Initially assigning a "recommended" rating to Alibaba-SW (09988) and establishing two major focal points of "putting users first" and "AI-driven."
Minsheng Securities expects that Alibaba-SW (09988) adjusted EPS for FY2025-2027 will be 7.85/8.62/9.53 yuan respectively.
Minsheng Securities has released a research report stating that the inclusion of Alibaba-SW(09988) in the Stock Connect program is expected to improve liquidity. They have initiated coverage with a "buy" rating and forecasted the company's adjusted EPS for FY2025-2027 to be 7.85/8.62/9.53 yuan respectively. The firm believes that Alibaba's strategic restructuring will stimulate business vitality and focus on core businesses to achieve growth. The competition in the e-commerce industry is slowing down, and Alibaba's traditional advantages in online retail are expected to maintain stable market share. The cloud business, driven by AI, has great potential for future growth.
Key points from Minsheng Securities:
1. Strategic restructuring to focus on "user-first, AI-driven" approach, emphasizing e-commerce & cloud computing.
2. After more than 20 years of development, Alibaba has become a leading company in China's internet industry, with business segments including Taobao Group, Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cainiao Group, Local Services Group, and Alibaba Entertainment Group, as well as other innovative businesses. In 2023, Alibaba restructured internally, with Joe Tsai appointed as Chairman of the Board, and Daniel Zhang as CEO, Chairman, and CEO of Taobao/Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group; by establishing "user-first, AI-driven" as the two strategic priorities, they are refocusing on "e-commerce + cloud computing" to achieve strategic restructuring.
3. E-commerce: The industry's low-price competition is gradually slowing down, and improvements in user experience and optimization in operations for merchants are expected to show gradual results.
4. Cloud computing: With leading scale and technology, Alibaba Cloud is expected to return to double-digit growth.
Alibaba is currently the Chinese internet company with the highest buyback intensity, continuously increasing shareholder returns with a shareholder return rate of 9.4% as of the end of FY2024 (March 31, 2024).
Risks include: 1) Unexpected changes in consumer environment; 2) Increased competition in e-commerce industry; 3) Policy and regulatory risks; 4) Unexpected developments in technology; 5) Risks in overseas business development.
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