YD Faces Pressure to Meet Annual Sales Target with Less Than 40% Completed in First Half

BYD (321.230, -4.57, -1.40%) disclosed on its official website that it sold 382,585 vehicles in June, bringing its total vehicle sales for the first half of 2025 to 2,145,954 units, a 33% year-on-year increase. Cumulative sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 12.7 million units. Within the first half, passenger car sales reached 377,628 units, up 11.0% year-on-year, while exports of passenger cars and pickups rose 229.8% to 89,699 units.

Despite its leading performance in the domestic market, BYD’s sales so far account for only about 39% of its full-year target of 5.5 million units, highlighting significant pressure for the second half. The company aims to increase sales nearly 30% year-on-year, with overseas deliveries projected to nearly double to 800,000 units. To meet the annual target, BYD needs to sell approximately 3.36 million vehicles in the latter half, requiring a monthly average of 560,000 units—still short of June’s 382,500 figure.

While overseas markets appear likely to sustain momentum, with over 470,000 units sold in the first half and 132% year-on-year growth, domestic sales face stronger headwinds. Most sales were driven by the mid- to low-end Dynasty and Ocean series, which recorded 342,737 units. However, these June results were supported by a temporary discount campaign offering subsidies of up to RMB 53,000 across 22 smart-driving models, which ended on June 30. With government bodies discouraging further price cuts and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promising to curb unhealthy price competition, BYD may struggle to apply similar pricing strategies moving forward.

Competition in the RMB 100,000 price segment remains intense, not only from established rivals like Geely but also from new entrants such as Leapmotor and even traditional joint ventures including Dongfeng Nissan and GAC Toyota. Although seasonal demand typically strengthens in the fourth quarter, offering some advantage, the environment remains fiercely competitive.

Nonetheless, BYD’s continued global expansion provides support. The company recently delivered its 90,000th new energy vehicle in Thailand, rolled out the first vehicle from its Brazil plant, and ranked as Singapore’s top-selling brand in the first four months of the year. Its presence now spans six continents and over 110 countries and regions. While BYD’s goal of 5.5 million units remains challenging, sustained overseas momentum and smooth production ramp-up of new models could push final sales to somewhere between 5 million and 5.5 million units.