Chinese and Thai: It is expected that the Hang Seng Index will fluctuate between 16800 and 18300 points in September.

date
11/09/2024
avatar
GMT Eight
Zhongtai International strategist Yan Zhaojun believes that the current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is still low, and policy expectations will help to repair the valuation. The forecasted P/E ratio of the Hang Seng Index will be repaired to 8.3 times, but still at a historically low level. Based on factors such as fundamentals, profit, funds, and valuation, the reasonable operating range of the Hang Seng Index in September is expected to be between 16800 and 18300 points. Yan Zhaojun pointed out that the market is hoping that the Fed's rate cut in September can further open up the People's Bank of China's monetary policy space, but the rate cut this year may be lower than the current market expectations. Under the central policy framework of "adjusting structure" and "preventing risks", the central bank has always maintained the stability of monetary policy. After September, China may focus on expanding consumption in the areas of replacing old with new, accelerating real estate acquisition and building of affordable housing, and potentially reducing existing housing loans through structural policies. Yan Zhaojun stated that historically, Hong Kong stocks have generally performed well in each sector in the month before the Fed's rate cut. However, the performance in the month, 3 months, and 6 months after the rate cut is mixed. It is essential for consumption, technology, healthcare, and energy to perform well. The rate cut only affects the stock price increase, but does not change the direction of the stock price. The decisive factor still depends on the basic fundamentals of the Chinese economy. Zhongtai International recommended stocks for September are: Alibaba (09988), China United Network Communications (00762), Hong Kong Telecommunications (06823), TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780), CHINA RES MIXC (01209), YADEA (01585), AIA (01299), GEELY AUTO (00175), GUANGDONG INV (00270).

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