Will the central bank restart buying bonds? The bond market waits quietly for "variables" to break the deadlock.

date
17/09/2025
On the eve of the announcement of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, various emotions in the domestic market are interwoven. Especially after the macroeconomic data for August was disclosed recently, the market has more expectations for further measures to stabilize growth. This has also supported the strength of the treasury futures market, with the main 10-year treasury futures contract closing up for the fourth consecutive day. "The variable that may break the deadlock in the bond market next is the central bank resuming bond purchases." Liu Yu, from Huaxi Securities Research Institute, believes that compared to one-time measures such as reserve requirement cuts and interest rate cuts, continuous execution of central bank bond purchases, if implemented, would be a larger positive for the bond market and make it easier to push interest rates back into a downward trend. However, it is difficult to determine the timing of the central bank's bond purchases, so it is more prudent to make right-sided large positions based on this as a signal.