International Energy Agency: OPEC's production increase combined with competitors expanding capacity, the global oil surplus in 2026 will reach a record high.

The International Energy Agency stated that with OPEC+ continuing to increase production and their competitors expanding their capacity, the record-high surplus of crude oil expected next year will further expand. Despite a slight increase in global crude oil demand expectations for the next two years, the increase in supply expectations is greater. The agency's report indicates that global daily oil production in 2026 will exceed daily consumption by an average of 3.33 million barrels, an increase of approximately 360,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast a month ago. Looking at an annual basis, this surplus will be a record high, although a larger surplus occurred briefly during the peak of the pandemic in 2020. The Paris-based agency that provides advice to major economies stated: "The increase in supply from OPEC+ and the potential further imbalance of supply and demand in crude oil may exacerbate, buffering the impact of geopolitical risks on oil prices." On Thursday, international crude oil prices in the London market hovered around $67 per barrel, a cumulative drop of about 10% since the beginning of the year, but still more resilient than expected by some institutions. Although summer driving demand in the United States and China's crude oil purchases have provided some support to the market, Wall Street firms question whether this support can be sustained. The OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia agreed last weekend to begin restoring a new round of previously suspended supply more than a year early, planning to increase production by a small amount of 137,000 barrels per day next month. Despite bearish warnings from forecasting agencies, Saudi Arabia and its allies believe that the decision to speed up the restoration of the previous round of supply was reasonable. The International Energy Agency pointed out that as current production levels in some core OPEC+ countries have exceeded their quotas and these countries have agreed to compensate for previous overproduction, actual production may increase by only 40,000 barrels per day in October. Nevertheless, the agency has still raised its production expectations for OPEC+ in 2026. Oil-producing countries outside the OPEC organization are also expanding their capacity. The report shows that non-OPEC+ countries led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana will collectively increase their daily oil production by 1.4 million barrels this year, about twice the expected increase in global oil demand. The production of these countries is expected to continue to expand in 2026, with a daily output increase slightly exceeding 1 million barrels. The International Energy Agency slightly raised its forecast for global oil demand growth this year to 740,000 barrels per day, citing "weak oil prices, slightly improved economic prospects, and steady actual oil deliveries in several developed economies." The International Energy Agency predicts that due to supply exceeding demand by a large margin, the global daily surplus of oil in the first half of 2026 will reach approximately 4 million barrels.