Goldman Sachs trader: Fed rate cuts pace and magnitude depends on September's non-farm payroll.

Goldman Sachs fixed income department trader Rikin Shah and others stated that the market had been in a wait-and-see mode before the Jackson Hole meeting. Powell's latest statement has given the green light for a rate cut in September, especially against the backdrop of recent employment data revisions that have raised the Fed's concerns about the job market. This is a typical example of the "downside risks to the labor market" that Powell mentioned at the last FOMC press conference and reiterated in his speech at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. Goldman Sachs traders believe that if August non-farm payroll growth is less than 100,000, especially in the face of political pressure, it will help determine a rate cut in September. Goldman Sachs pointed out that if the labor market further weakens, the time window is now. The bank believes that whether in a scenario of economic slowdown or normalization, the Fed is likely to complete this round of rate cuts before the next Fed chair takes office, by the first half of 2026.