US natural gas: production decline, exports increase, prices rebound technically

On August 21st, the price of natural gas futures in the United States rose by about 2%, mainly due to a decrease in daily production and an increase in liquefied natural gas export volumes. The price of natural gas futures for delivery in September on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 4.9 cents, or 1.8%, to $2.801 per million British thermal units, moving out of a technically oversold area. Despite inventory data predicting an increase of 22 billion cubic feet last week, lower than the 29 billion at the same time last year and the five-year average of 35 billion cubic feet, current natural gas inventories are still about 6% higher than the five-year average. Traders seem to have little concern about a shortage of natural gas supply in the winter, as the price difference between March and April 2026 futures has dropped to a record of about 13 cents, known as the "widow maker" spread. In August, the average daily natural gas production in the contiguous United States was 1.084 trillion cubic feet, higher than the record of 1.078 trillion cubic feet in July, but daily production dropped to a six-week low of around 1.064 trillion cubic feet on August 21st. At the same time, the average flow of natural gas to the eight major liquefied natural gas export plants in the United States increased from 15.5 billion cubic feet per day in July to 15.8 billion cubic feet per day in August.