Galaxy Securities: Data at both supply and demand ends show a slight contraction, with a relatively noticeable decrease in domestic demand.

date
15/08/2025
Galaxy Securities pointed out that in July, the economic data in China showed a slight contraction in both supply and demand, with a relatively significant decline in domestic demand. This year, the "grab for exports" and "grab for new technologies" have led to better-than-expected economic performance in the first half of the year, but also bring certain adjustment pressure to the economic growth rate in the second half of the year. From the supply side, the GDP growth rate for July calculated by the production method was about 4.8%. Industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% previously. The intensity of industrial production has slightly decreased, which may be related to the extreme weather conditions in the country. The effects of anti-"inward spiral" policies need to be further verified in August. The production index for the service industry increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with strong growth in information software, business services, and the financial industry. From the demand side, the total retail sales of consumer goods in July increased by 3.7% year-on-year, compared to growth rates of 6.4% and 4.8% in May and June, showing a more significant decline.