The U.S. Dollar recedes + Steep rise in U.S. Treasury Bulls, Financial markets enter a "narrative logic" transition! "Interest rate cut trading" promoted to main theme

date
05/08/2025
According to the Wisdom Finance APP, a research report recently released by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) shows that the institution believes that the significantly lower-than-expected non-farm employment in the United States in July, accompanied by a significant downward revision of the previous value, has led to a sharp increase in market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year. Data cited by MUFG shows that the interest rate futures market has priced in a loosening of about 64 basis points for the remaining time in 2025 - meaning that the expectations for a rate cut have increased to about 75 basis points by the end of the year, with a 90% chance of a rate cut in September. The interest rate futures market is currently betting on at least two rate cuts before the end of the year, and even betting on consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points in September and October, with more and more interest rate futures traders expecting a total of three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points before the end of the year.