CICC: There are multiple reasons supporting the performance of the Chinese stock market from a macro perspective.
The research report from Zhongjin Company stated that from a macro perspective, although China's current economic indicators still need improvement, there are also multiple reasons supporting the performance of the stock market. Since the fourth quarter of last year, market confidence in China's medium to long-term economic prospects has noticeably improved, especially with the positive effects of the DeepSeek. Although the real estate sector is still undergoing adjustment, its proportion in the Chinese economy has significantly decreased, weakening the negative impact on the economy. At the same time, policymakers have significantly increased their focus on the economy, stock market, and real estate market, reducing market concerns about downside risks in related areas. Furthermore, although the degree to which the Chinese government is leveraging has been more restrained compared to the US at that time, the macro leverage ratio of the private sector in China has not continued to rise. Additionally, over the past few years, the proportion of Chinese residents' allocation of safe assets has correspondingly increased. With limited returns on safe assets, the motivation to moderately increase allocation to risky assets has also risen. Looking ahead, referencing international experience, it is important to address debt-related policies during the downturn of the financial cycle. Such policies can help relevant departments improve their balance sheets, enhance economic vitality, and the significance for the capital market is self-evident.
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