Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the Trump administrations basic tariff rate will be raised to 15%.

Goldman Sachs' chief economist, David Mericle, predicts that the US will increase its "equal" tariff rates from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and key minerals reaching 50% - this may exacerbate inflationary pressures and inhibit economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate the impact of import tariffs, Goldman Sachs has simultaneously adjusted its forecasts for US inflation and GDP growth. The core inflation forecast for 2025 has been lowered from 3.4% to 3.3%, the forecast for 2026 has been adjusted from 2.6% to 2.7%, and the forecast for 2027 has been increased from 2.0% to 2.4%. Mericle stated that tariffs are expected to cumulatively push up core prices by 1.7% over a period of 2-3 years. He added that tariffs will lower GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, by 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and by 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Goldman Sachs has accordingly lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1%.