US CPI Outlook: Expected Impact of Tariffs, Unlikely Fed Action this Month

The yield on US Treasury bonds has edged up as the market awaits June CPI data. Aaron Hill of FP Markets stated in a report, "Although the June data may show some significant tariff effects, especially on tariff-sensitive goods like clothing, it is unlikely to be enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to take action this month." A survey by The Wall Street Journal showed that economists generally predict a 0.3% increase in both overall and core CPI on a month-on-month basis, compared to a 0.1% increase in May. According to Tradeweb data, the yield on 2-year US bonds has risen by 0.4 basis points to 3.895%, the 10-year yield has increased by 0.6 basis points to 4.432%, and the 30-year yield has gone up by 0.4 basis points to 4.977%.