China Merchants Securities: It is expected that the growth trend of social retail consumption will continue in the second half of the year.

Zhao Shang Securities analyst Zhang Jingjing stated that it is expected that consumer spending in the second half of the year will continue to increase. The main driver will be the expansion of the policy to encourage trade-ins for new purchases, with the estimated subsidy scale for 2025 expected to further expand on the basis of 300 billion yuan. However, factors such as uncertainty in the external economic environment, growth in household income, and fluctuations in the real estate market may cause significant fluctuations in monthly consumer spending.