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Citibank analysts said on Thursday they expect that if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates and leads to a disruption of Iran's oil exports of 1.1 million barrels per day, the average price of Brent crude oil could increase by around 15% to 20% from the pre-conflict level of $65 per barrel. Citibank stated in a report, "This implies that the average price of Brent crude oil should be between $75 and $78 per barrel." Oil prices have been hovering around $65 per barrel in May. Citibank also mentioned that if oil supply disruptions reach around 3 million barrels per day and last for several months, oil prices could rise to $90 per barrel. Furthermore, JP Morgan, in a report, stated that in the most extreme scenario of a larger regional conflict, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could spike to $120-130 per barrel. Iran is the third largest oil producer in OPEC, with an oil production of about 3.3 million barrels per day.