Before the FOMC statement: No change in interest rates is already a certainty, with a 14.5% probability of a rate cut in July.

According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged tonight is 99.9%, with a 0.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged in July is 85.5%, with a cumulative 14.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, and a 0% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged in September is 35.1%, with a cumulative 56.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, and a 8.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut.