Analyst: If Iran's energy supply is in crisis, OPEC+ increasing production could potentially backfire.

Energy Aspects geopolitical chief Mandel Bronce said, "Given that Israel has crossed a threshold, the market will question whether it will further strike Iranian energy infrastructure, and we seem to be entering a vicious cycle of escalating conflict." Helima Croft, global head of commodities strategy at Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets and former CIA analyst, said, "If the supply is disrupted, Trump is likely to ask the Saudi-led OPEC+ alliance to use its significant spare capacity." Iran's current daily production is about 3.4 million barrels, and it is not certain if OPEC can fill its long-term large-scale production gap. This move itself may put Saudi and UAE energy facilities in the crosshairs. Clay Seigle, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, analyzed, "Although OPEC can use spare capacity to replace Iranian oil, Saudi and the UAE face significant political risks in profiting from this."