IEA Monthly Report: The impact of tariff supply shocks seems much lighter than previously expected.

IEA Monthly Report: Emerging economies will continue to drive demand growth, despite recent slowdowns. Average total demand is forecasted to be 103.9 million barrels per day in 2025. Policy uncertainty remains high, impacting consumer and business confidence. Global oil supply increased by 1.3 million barrels per day year-on-year in April, mainly driven by non-OPEC+ countries. The global crude oil supply growth forecast for 2026 has been raised from 960,000 barrels per day to 970,000 barrels per day. The supply growth forecast for non-OPEC+ countries in 2026 has been lowered from 920,000 barrels per day to 820,000 barrels per day. Disappointing oil consumption data from non-OECD countries. Falling oil prices have prompted some shale oil producers to cut spending and production levels. Average total demand is forecasted to be 104.7 million barrels per day in 2026.